Unrealistic expectations were placed on Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson entering his rookie year, which makes his 976 rushing yards and four rushing TDs feel like a huge disappointment.
After changes to the coaching staff and the quarterback position this offseason, what does Robinson’s dynasty value look like heading into the 2024 NFL season?
Bijan Robinson’s Dynasty Outlook
Expectations surrounding a generational type talent like Robinson can make it difficult to appreciate how dynamic the player really was because of a lack of fantasy football dominance.
An RB9 fantasy finish in full-PPR formats in an offense that finished 24th in red-zone trips (47) this season with one of the league’s lowest-scoring offensive units shouldn’t be considered a colossal failure from Robinson in his rookie campaign. If anything, Robinson’s productive year while losing far more work to Tyler Allgeier than expected, particularly in the red zone, should be viewed as a success because of Robinson’s production on a per-touch basis.
To quickly revisit how frustrating this usage was during Robinson’s rookie year, Allegeier saw 35% of the team’s rushing attempts last year, while Robinson clocked in at just 40%. This makes the Falcons’ decision to spend top 10 NFL Draft capital on Robinson only to relegate to essentially split duties with Allgeier doesn’t make very much sense.
For those of you wondering, that means Robinson saw just 28 more carries than Allgeier last season, which is less than two carries more on a per-game basis. That feels like coaching malpractice when you take into consideration that Robinson nearly averaged a full yard more per attempt. For context, Robinson averaged 4.6 yards per carry to Allgeier’s 3.7. Force-feeding Allgeier 186 carried when Robinson was clearly the more efficient and dynamic option in the backfield was nothing short of befuddling.
Well, if the total touch counts were befuddling, then the fact that Allgeier saw twice as many carries inside the 5-yard line as Robinson last year is nothing short of infuriating. Unfortunately, Robinson wasn’t just contending with Allgeier for goal-line looks, as RB Cordarrelle Patterson saw the exact same amount of carries inside the 5 as Robinson in 2023.
Mercifully, the Falcons did fantasy managers a huge favor by ousting head coach Arthur Smith this offseason to bring in Raheem Morris, who spent the last three seasons as the defensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Rams.
Morris wasn’t the only member of the Rams staff to land a position with the Falcons. Zac Robinson — who spent the last five years working with the quarterbacks and wide receivers while coordinating the passing game in 2023 — has been named the new offensive coordinator for Atlanta.
The Rams featured Kyren Williams in a bell-cow role last year, which should get Bijan Robinson shareholders very excited about his outlook heading into 2024.
Yes, Robinson may have been a bit of a fantasy disappointment in 2023, but his top-10 RB finish, despite the head-scratching usage, should be considered a positive. He still finished with over 1,400 total yards, caught 50+ passes, and flashed special playmaking ability on numerous occasions throughout his rookie campaign.
MORE: PFN’s Consensus Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings
Robinson’s 103 yards on seven receptions in the regular-season finale proves that he’s capable of having a pass-catching floor that rivals any other RB in the league — if the Falcons can manage to get the right quarterback in place.
Robinson is still the top running back on my dynasty board, and I would not hesitate to invest in a first-round startup pick to build my team’s foundation around him for years to come.
Robinson’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Robinson rank in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Tate’s latest dynasty rankings, featuring Robinson’s ranking in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Breece Hall | NYJ
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) Saquon Barkley | PHI
8) Kyren Williams | LAR
9) Rachaad White | TB
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC
11) James Cook | BUF
12) De’Von Achane | MIA
13) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
14) Trey Benson | ARI
15) D’Andre Swift | CHI
16) Josh Jacobs | GB
17) Alvin Kamara | NO
18) Tyjae Spears | TEN
19) Javonte Williams | DEN
20) Jonathon Brooks | CAR
Should You Trade Robinson in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Robinson? Our PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds.
Let me start by saying you should be open to trading any player on your dynasty roster for the right price. That being said, Robinson is my top overall RB in dynasty formats, which means it will take a massive overpay at the price of something equivalent to three first-round picks as the starting point. In a day and age of very few dynamic feature-backs in the NFL, Robinson has league-winning upside for years to come.
Some may view him a bit differently due to his disappointing rookie season because of the hype surrounding him entering the league last year, but the removal of Smith as a head coach gives fantasy managers a proper amount of optimism that he’ll live up to his sky-high ceiling in the near future.
MORE: What Is Bijan Robinson’s Best Ball Outlook for 2024?
Far better days are ahead for this dynamic RB very soon, meaning another owner needs to pay a premium, top-shelf price at no discount whatsoever for me to part ways with him.
The only players I would consider dealing Robinson for straight up would be Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. That is the entire list.
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