Here we are fantasy football and NFL betting fans — it’s Week 18! It’s the last week of the 2024 regular season, and you know what that means: player salary incentives and a wide (and varying) range of motivations for teams to win their games.
In this article, we’re going to select our favorite game lines and player props for Sunday’s Week 18 action, and they’re going to be heavily based on the aforementioned salary incentives and/or team playoff implications.
Remember, for lines above -150, we generally don’t take these straight up (as the odds are too high), but we like to mix these into two- or three-leg parlays (all odds are subject to change based on information that comes out after the article has been published).
Best Sunday NFL Betting Lines and Player Props
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Seattle ML (-270), Spread -6.5 (-112)
We love the Seattle Seahawks here, and not just to win — but to win big. Not only have the Los Angeles Rams publicly stated they will be sitting/resting starters in preparation for the playoffs, but Geno Smith has a $2 million player incentive if the Seahawks can win this game and get to 10 wins. ML for parlays; spread straight up.
Geno Smith Over 225 Passing Yards (-175)
Smith has a $2 million incentive with 185 more passing yards. He has surpassed the 225 mark in nine of 16 starts this season. As stated, the Rams are resting many of their starters, so Smith should have his way with the L.A. defense.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay -9.5 (-128)
Although the Green Bay Packers have clinched a spot in the playoffs, they can improve their position with a win over Chicago and a Washington Commanders loss. The Chicago Bears, who have lost 10 straight games, are the perfect team for G.B. to get right against before the playoffs, especially at home.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles ML (-192), Spread -4.5 (-112)
The Los Angeles Chargers need a win to improve their playoff positioning (as well as a Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday). They are facing a Las Vegas Raiders team who has already missed the playoffs and have already lost to L.A. this season, 22-10. With Harbaugh at the helm, we see the Chargers as a lock today — whether you like the ML or straight up.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta -6.5 (-150) Teased
The line is -7.5 right now for this game in favor of Atlanta, and although we like that, we like 6.5 a lot more. The Atlanta Falcons absolutely need this game to have a chance at the postseason, and they should be able to get that done today against a Carolina Panthers team that’s down its best RB, and that the Falcons already beat 38-20 earlier this year.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton, Over 80 Receiving Yards (-120)
The Denver Broncos are facing the Kansas City Chiefs today, who are resting much of their starting roster. Combine this with a cash incentive for Sutton, who will earn an extra $2 million if he can reel in another 82 yards receiving.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray, Anytime TD (+145) and/or Over 50 Rushing Yards (+180)
This could be a spicy little parlay, as Kyler Murray needs both 50+ rushing yards and a rushing touchdown to lock up a nice $750K salary incentive. Murray has cleared 50 yards five times this season and is averaging a career-best 7.3 yards per carry. With no James Conner today, we like Murray to get several goal-line looks.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield, Over 250 Passing Yards (-115)
Baker Mayfield can also cash in with another $500,000, per statistic, if he remains in the top 10 among NFL quarterbacks, or top five in the NFC, in the following categories: passer rating, touchdown passes, passing yards, completion percentage, or yards per pass. We expect Mayfield to make several million in incentives today against the New Orleans Saints.
Mike Evans, Over 90 Receiving Yards (-155), Over 6.5 Receptions (-120)
Another potential parlay for the people. The Saints’ defense ranks 19th in the league according to PFN’s DEF+ rankings; when combined with Mike Evans’ player incentives ($3 million) in sight … we expect him to go off today. He needs 5+ catches and 85 yards to cash in.
Jalen McMillan, Over 50 Receiving Yards (+105)
Jalen McMillan has gone over this number in four straight games, and in this game, Mayfield has incentives around completions, passing yards, passer rating, and more. McMillan can ride his QB’s coattails to success.