Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco is now a secondary option on the Super Bowl favorite and is an interesting player in the NFL betting prop markets that have gained steam around the final game of the NFL season. Investigating these specialty markets can be challenging, but they can be quite profitable if done correctly.
Whether you want to link some of these bets together in a correlated same-game parlay or play them individually, here is where I stand as we prepare for the season’s biggest game!
Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl Betting Props
Rushing Yards: Over/Under 21.5
As the unofficial president of the Pacheco fan club, this season has hurt me to the core. Not only did the injury sideline him for over two months, but the lead role that he entered the season with (80% Week 1 snap share) isn’t even close to his anymore.
More concerning than the fact that he has been held under a 35% snap share in four straight games is the fact that, since returning, his yards per carry after first contact are down 20.4% from a season ago.
The angriest runner in the game has just made us optimists angry this season and outside of wish casting a greater role with the season on the line, I can’t bend the numbers in a way to make him look good.
I’m going to pass on this play because I still think there is a solid NFL running back in this profile, and if Andy Reid were ever going to scheme up successful run designs for his skill set, this would be the time. With just 10 carries this postseason and a defense that has impressed in more obvious running spots (seventh-best success rate against first down rush attempts), there’s no statistical reason to back the over.
Pick: PASS
Receptions: Over/Under 1.5, Receiving Yards: Over/Under 4.5
Kareem Hunt is leading this backfield, and while the passing game role has been more of a split than the rushing one, it’s simply not a big enough pie to invest in with confidence for either RB. Hunt has run a route on 37.9% of Kansas City dropbacks this postseason, a rate that is in line with what he ended the regular season with (38.1% in Weeks 16-17). As the more fluid pass catcher, he profiles as the more likely option over Pacheco in that regard.
The Chiefs run the same boot concept twice for first downs against the Bills, with a Mahomes scramble on fourth-and-1 and a Isiah Pacheco catch late in the game as they were trying to run out the clock. pic.twitter.com/nFkzRZYlab
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) February 4, 2025
Pacheco earned eight targets in two games to open the season, but he’s seen just 11 in seven games since. If he is going to be more involved (something Coach Kyle, who wasn’t big enough to play competitive football by the third grade, would do), I expect it to be in a more traditional sense, understanding that they have a more versatile back at their disposal, not to mention a plethora of receivers who are more than capable of handling volume.
Pick: UNDER 1.5 receptions
Anytime Touchdown +265
Pacheco visited the end zone seven times last regular season, and he can be a tough tackle in those short-yardage situations, but that’s not his role these days. With just three red zone touches over his past four games and Hunt’s success in those spots (a rushing score in each game), I’m not chasing the odds – they are long, but not long enough.
Pick: PASS
