Hollywood Brown enters the Super Bowl on an interesting run and is one of the most popular players in the NFL betting prop markets that have gained steam around the final game of the NFL season. Investigating these specialty markets can be a challenge, but if done correctly, they can be quite profitable.
Whether you want to link some of these bets together in a correlated same-game parlay or play them individually, here is where I stand as we prepare for the biggest game of the season!
Hollywood Brown Super Bowl Betting Props
Receptions: Over/Under 3.5
Brown has been on the field for just 49% of the offensive snaps in the four games he’s played with the Kansas City Chiefs, but he has earned 22 targets and has established himself as a legitimate threat in this offense.
I’m willing to bet on his trajectory continuing into this game.
Patrick Mahomes’ average depth of throw has declined every season of his career, and that is something I expect to be evident on Super Bowl Sunday. We generally think of Brown as a big-play threat, and while he comes with that potential, our path to cashing this ticket is efficiency when he gets conservative looks.
Brown’s Catch Rate, 2024:
- Under 14 air yards: 80% (12-of-15)
- 14+ air yards: 0% (0-of-7)
If we believe that the Philadelphia Eagles would prefer to die by 1,000 paper cuts and that the Chiefs are happy to oblige, Brown’s target-earning skills figure to result in more catches than an overwhelming yardage count.
Pick: OVER
Hollywood Brown didn't get in the box score, but he was close to 2 massive plays
Both really well-paced routes, one throw was too long, one throw was perfect — but couldn't be finished pic.twitter.com/CXP5pcIMQ4
— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) January 19, 2025
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 42.5
The fact that Brown has been targeted on 26.8% of his routes with the team is encouraging, but the lack of production down the field is concerning when projecting his yardage upside. Combine that with the fact that Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and even Travis Kelce are capable of winning on those extended routes, and you’re walking a thin line here.
I wouldn’t play both the over on receptions AND the under on receiving yards, but either by themselves is a fine play in my opinion. During Kansas City’s first two games this postseason, Brown has caught just three of his seven targets for 35 yards — I have him penciled in for 5.5-6 targets; that makes all of the prices around him in the betting markets spot on.
Pick: PASS
Anytime Touchdown (+270)
The lack of downfield production worries me on this front. We know that Kareem Hunt can cash in attempts inside the five-yard line and that Kelce is a proven touchdown-savant once the ball gets inside the 20-yard line.
That doesn’t leave much meat on the bone for the receivers; even if a receiver is going to get a dangerous look, are we sure it’s Brown? Worthy has earned at least six targets in eight straight games to go along with multiple rush attempts in four of those contests, and Hopkins is likely viewed as the top high-point receiver on this roster, even if we’ve yet to see much of it lately.
I don’t doubt there will be packages for Brown, I just don’t think it’ll bear much fruit in scoring position against a defense that allows the fourth-fewest red-zone trips and touchdowns at the fifth-lowest rate.
Pick: NO PLAY