DeVonta Smith is back in the Super Bowl and is one of the most popular players in the NFL betting prop markets that have gained steam around the final game of the NFL season. Investigating these specialty markets can be a challenge, but if done correctly, they can be quite profitable.
Whether you want to link some of these bets together in a correlated same-game parlay or play them individually, here is where I stand as we prepare for the biggest game of the season!
DeVonta Smith Super Bowl Betting Props
Receptions: Over/Under 4.5
Smith is affectionately known as “Skinny Batman” alongside his supersized receiving partner A.J. Brown; while that moniker would have you thinking that his role is more of a field stretcher, that simply hasn’t been the case lately.
He’s caught all 12 of his targets this postseason thanks to a 4.8-yard aDOT (52% lower than his rate from the regular season and 59% below his career rate), a trend that I’m interested in given how the Kansas City Chiefs have struggled some against YAC threats in conservative offenses (Jalen Hurts’ aDOT is 20.5% after the first 10 weeks).
The Chiefs have been less aggressive lately when it comes to bringing the heat, a strategy that hurts Brown’s projection more than it does Smith’s.
Target Rate When the Defense Blitzes, 2024:
- Brown: 30.6% (targets/routes)
- Smith: 22.6%
Target Rate When the Defense Doesn’t Blitz, 2024:
- Brown: 25.6% (targets/routes)
- Smith: 22.3%
Kansas City has struggled for large portions of this season on third downs, and if that’s the case again in this spot, I love where we stand with Smith. Whether the defensive game plan is to slow Saquon Barkley or to limit the number of deep throws, Smith is in a great spot to go over this number for the first time this postseason.
Pick: OVER
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 52.5
With a decline in aDOT, however, comes limitations on yardage expectations.
.@DeVontaSmith_6 is always at his best against the Chiefs😤#FlyEaglesFly | #SBLIX pic.twitter.com/oEdaOYcL5q
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) February 3, 2025
Smith has been held to 121 yards on his 12 catches during the playoffs and has just one 30-yard reception since Week 10. If this offensive script goes as I expect, Smith will be involved but also bottled up once the ball is in his hands.
Could he make a quick move and break open a drive? Of course — he has averaged 13 yards per catch for his career and shined under the bright lights last season in the playoff loss to the Tsampa Bay Buccaneers (8-148-0 on 12 targets). Am I willing to put my hard-earned money on him extending a short pass against a defense that has been underrated for the last handful of years?
That, I am not.
Pick: PASS
Anytime Touchdown (+240)
You now know the type of role I expect Smith to assume in Super Bowl 59, and that should make my unwillingness to invest in him finding paydirt no surprise. Over the past two seasons (33 games played), Smith has just 12 red-zone touches.
As discussed, a big play over the top is certainly possible, but it’s not something I’m comfortable banking on, even at an enticing price. My card this week doesn’t have much Smith exposure (in either direction), and I’m OK with that.
Pick: NO PLAY
