A.J. Brown is back in the Super Bowl and is one of the most popular players in the NFL betting prop markets that have gained steam around the final game of the NFL season. Investigating these specialty markets can be a challenge, but if done correctly, they can be quite profitable.
Whether you want to link some of these bets together in a correlated same-game parlay or play them individually, here is where I stand as we prepare for the biggest game of the season!
A.J. Brown Super Bowl Betting Props
Receptions: Over/Under 5.5
I’ll dive into the details in a minute, but the path to Brown seeing this sort of volume is tough for me to project.
Message To Fantasy Players 🗣
DeVonta Smith: "Keep me OFF your team" 🤣
A.J. Brown: "Draft me early next year" 😈#SuperBowlLIX #FantasyFootball #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/Ekiwr0ekZY
— SportsGrid Fantasy (@DailyRoto) February 4, 2025
Brown is a great receiver with a versatile skill set, but I have this offense operating through an ultra-conservative plan, something that could leave their WR1 producing more as he did through the first two playoff games (totals: 3-24-0) than his strong showing against the Washington Commanders in the NFC Title game (6-96-1).
Back in 2022, Brown got on the board with a 45-yard touchdown in the first half; that elevated his final stat line, but outside of that one outlier play, he managed just 54 yards in a game that saw 73 points scored and the Philadephia Eagles run 72 plays.
I thought the Kansas City Chiefs did reasonably well against him in that game and I’ve got them doing something similar on Sunday.
Pick: UNDER
Longest Reception: Over/Under 25.5; Receiving Yards: Over/Under 71.5
The Eagles are in a lively position to win this ballgame, but if they do it, it’s unlikely to come in a high-flying sort of way. By today’s standards, they are a unique team that wins with the ground game and defense.
When they have the ball and elect to throw, are we sure the version of Brown from earlier in the playoffs isn’t going to be the version we see? This year, 90.7% of his targets have come on the perimeter, and Kansas City has locked down wide targets as well as anyone — allowing the sixth-fewest YAC, fourth-fewest YPA, and second-lowest CMP% on those passes this season.
In the AFC Championship, Josh Allen managed to pick up just 58 yards on 13 perimeter throws. He obviously doesn’t have the weapons that Jalen Hurts does, but he’s as creative out of the pocket as anyone and gives his receivers time to uncover … it didn’t happen.
The matchup projects as prohibitive and, as mentioned, the offensive structure isn’t exactly ideal for over bettors.
Hurts’ Percentage of Throws That Travel 15+ Yards by Season:
- 2021: 26.3%
- 2022: 20.7%
- 2023: 20.2%
- 2024: 18.6%
That will make this difficult to begin with from a volume perspective, but it only gets harder to project the deeper you dive. This season, the Chiefs ranked third in terms of percentage of yards gained on 25+ yard WR receptions coming after the reception (26.5%; league average: 34.7%).
Based on the trend above, it would seem that banking on the high-end volume down the field is unlikely, and Kansas City’s personnel doesn’t give much after the catch, something that coincides with a recent trend for Brown:
Brown’s Percentage of Deep Yards via YAC With the Eagles by Season:
- 2022: 25.1%
- 2023: 18.8%
- 2024: 18.1%
Sheer play volume is working against optimistic bettors in this regard as well; both the Eagles and Chiefs rank outside of the top 20 in terms of defensive plays per game. Both of these offenses are plenty comfortable sustaining long drives, and if that’s not the case for Philadelphia, it’s because Saquon Barkley is ending drives in short order.
Doesn’t hurt us.
Steve Spagnuolo also has our back.
Chiefs’ Pressure Rate When Not Blitzing, 2024:
- Weeks 1-14: 31.9% (15th in NFL)
- Weeks 15-17: 40%
- Week 18: Rested regulars
- Playoffs: 39.7%
Hurts’ yards per pressured pass attempt are down 20.3% from last season, and his average depth of throw in those situations has dipped 11.9%. This number opened up at 24.5 yards and rose before midnight to 25.5 — I’m holding out a little bit longer to see if I can squeeze any more value out on this prop, but I don’t see a 25+ yard grab coming from Philly’s WR1.
Pick: Under 25.5 yards (lean: under yardage)
Anytime Touchdown (+165)
Betting on a single game like this requires you to really deep-dive things. I’m out on most things related to Brown this week, but his touchdown equity remains something I’m bullish on. Over the past two months, he has had more multi-end-zone target games than he does contests without one, and with the Chiefs allowing the third most red-zone trips per game this season, I’m happy to bet on that trend continuing.
Whether the Eagles are chasing points or not, Brown’s athleticism will be a point of interest when they get into scoring position, especially if Kansas City crowds the line of scrimmage to slow the ground game.
I currently went with the higher-payout option of picking Brown to be Philadelphia’s first touchdown scorer with a half unit, with the other half being spent on his anytime option.
Pick: YES
