The Cincinnati Bengals are one win and a Denver Broncos loss from clinching the final seed in the AFC playoffs. Unfortunately for them, the Broncos will be facing a Chiefs team sitting its starters. If (!!!) they can beat Pittsburgh, their playoff hopes will rest on the shoulders of Carson Wentz.
The Steelers still have plenty to play for as well; with potential to be the three, five, or six seed. A Baltimore Ravens loss and Steelers win gives them the three seed. A Ravens win and a Steelers win puts them as the five seed. A Steelers loss and a Chargers win puts them at the six seed. By the start time of their game; Pittsburgh will know more about what’s at stake.
Bengals vs. Steelers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Bengals -2.5 - Moneyline
Bengals (-135); Steelers (+114) - Over/Under
47.5 total points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET - Location
Acrisure Stadium
Bengals vs. Steelers Preview and Prediction
The first matchup between these teams was an absolute shootout with Pittsburgh getting the win 44-38. According to TruMedia, Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow combined for 723 passing yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Steelers were able to pressure Burrow on 36.4% of his dropbacks, which would be good for ninth-best in the league. Under pressure, Burrow still finished eight of 11 with 79 yards and two touchdowns.
He also took four sacks, two of which resulted in fumbles including one that got returned for a touchdown. While the Bengals are generally good under pressure, ranking fifth in EPA (expected points added); they rank 28th in EPA lost to sacks under pressure. This has always been one of Burrow’s weaknesses and why I see him as a slight tier below Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
As shown by his fourth-place ranking in PFN’s very own QB+ metric, these sacks are a risk/reward given how consistent he has been on early downs this season. Cincinnati ranks third in EPA on first downs and fourth on first and second downs. This also shows up in the fact that they have the lowest average yards to go on third downs at seven.
Don’t let Pittsburgh’s ranking of 13th in pressure generated fool you; they are one of the league’s premiere pass-rushing teams. This season, teams average a time to throw of 2.85 seconds. The Steelers’ defense has seen an average time to throw from opponents of 2.75 seconds; which is fourth fastest.
To adjust for the fact that teams are scheming away some of Pittsburgh’s pressure; we can look at pressure generated in under 2.5 seconds. The Steelers rank eighth in this metric, despite blitzing at a league-average rate on these plays.
As a whole, the Steelers rank ninth in defensive EPA per play, 28th in success rate, 15th in passing explosives allowed, and eighth in rushing explosives allowed. How can a defense perform so well overall but are one of the worst defenses on a down-to-down basis and slightly above average in limiting explosive plays? By creating havoc in high-leverage situations.
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The Steelers rank third in EPA generated by turnovers and are fourth in EPA generated by penalties. This helps them disguise the ugly on a down-to-down basis, including their average ranking inside the red zone and on late downs. This should be a cause for concern, considering how volatile turnovers can be.
Offensively, the Steelers rank 23rd in EPA, 19th in success rate, seventh in explosive passing rate, and 12th in explosive rushing rate. The main issue has been their early down performance, the opposite of Cincinnati. They rank ninth in average distance to go because of their run-heavy tendencies on early downs.
On first downs, the Steelers are 25th in yards per attempt and 26th in yards per rush. On second down, they are eighth in yards per attempt but 17th in yards per rush. Third downs: fifth in yards per attempt and 12th in yards per rush. You would think a team with a clear advantage in the passing game wouldn’t have the third most runs in the NFL.
Luckily for them, they face a Cincinnati defense that ranks 29th in EPA, 30th in success rate, 22nd in passing explosives allowed, and 16th in rushing explosives allowed. The one advantage that the Bengals do have on defense is that they perform better in expected pass situations (20th) and are likely to force Pittsburgh into these given they rank 11th in defensive EPA on first down.
Overall, the Bengals’ defense has been improving from week to week. With one of the best offenses in football going up against a Steelers defense that is heavily reliant on turnovers, I think the Bengals should win the second matchup.
My pick: Bengals -2.5 (-108); Bengals ML (-135)