The Cincinnati Bengals will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 18. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bengals and Steelers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Joe Burrow, QB
Updated at 6:30 PM ET on Saturday, January 4
Burrow is active for tonight's game.
On top of all of the passing numbers, Burrow has a 15+ yard rush in consecutive games for the first time since Oct. 2022. That’s icing on the cake — we obviously can’t overlook just how potent he and this offense is through the air.
By now, you’re well aware of his historic run of consecutive games with 250 passing yards and three touchdowns. Take it a step further and extend his counting numbers over that stretch for a full 17-game season …
- 506 completions (NFL record: 490)
- 5,627 pass yards (NFL record: 5,477)
- 57 pass TD (NFL record: 55)
He was good for his standard 309 yards and three scores against this stingy defense in Week 13, and I can’t think of a single reason why we’d expect anything else. If you want to knock his ranking a touch for the matchup, go for it; it doesn’t matter, you’re playing him wherever you can.
Russell Wilson, QB
Updated at 6:30 PM ET on Saturday, January 4
Wilson is active for tonight's game.
In George Pickens’ return, Russell Wilson couldn’t find a rhythm downfield. He went just 1-of-6 on deep throws (his lowest such completion percentage of the season) and threw an interception (his first such pick since Week 10).
I’m willing to write off that statistical anomaly with Pickens working his way back to strength, and I think we see it correct itself against a Bengals defense that creates pressure at the eighth-lowest rate in the league.
No, I’m not signing up for another 414 yards with three touchdowns, the stat line Wilson put on Cincinnati back in Week 13, but a top-10 performance is a safe projection in a critical game against one of the few teams that could force Pittsburgh to speed up.
Chase Brown, RB
Updated at 6:30 PM ET on Saturday, January 4
Brown is inactive for tonight's game.
Chase Brown did nothing flashy on Sunday (his longest gain was 11 yards), and yet, the Bengals value what he brings to the table at such a level that they still gave him 24 opportunities (20 carries and four receptions).
The good backs are featured when the game script works in their favor while the great ones are force-fed the ball by their team.
Brown is trending toward the latter. He’s battling an ankle injury, and that requires us to track him as the week wears on, though all reporting out of Cincinnati seems to be underlined with optimism. Their bell cow has at least three catches and 12 carries in each of his past eight games, matching Bijan Robinson for the longest such streak this season, and he’s parlayed that into eight straight top-24 finishes at the position.
He was good for 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with the Steelers (Week 13), and he should have every opportunity to replicate that production on Saturday.
Khalil Herbert, RB
Once upon a time, Khalil Herbert was a popular fantasy breakout pick as the presumptive Bears RB1. In 2023, he posted three games of 19+ fantasy points.
Top 10 in yards per touch and evaded tackles per touch in 2022, Herbert does have talent. Unfortunately, the stigma of being a sixth round pick is hard to overcome.
This is big audition for Herbert, who will get once chance to prove to an NFL team he’s worth of a role next year. You can bet he’s going to give it 100% effort.
With that said, fantasy managers expecting Herbert to be a one-for-one Chase Brown replacement will likely leave disappointed. For the past eight weeks, Brown has played over 80% of the snaps. Herbert will almost certainly rotate with the Bengals backup of choice this week, while the Bengals, who lead the league with a 65% neutral game script pass rate, continue being the most pass-heavy team in the league.
Najee Harris, RB
I don’t mean to oversimplify, but who wins this game?
- Najee Harris, production vs. expectations in wins: -1.2%
- Najee Harris, production vs. expectations in losses: -27.8%
The Steelers won the first meeting; Harris was good for 30.3% production over expectation thanks to catching all six of his targets and adding a rushing score. Thanks to Pittsburgh controlling that game, their RB1 posted a season-high in expected points (19.1).
If that is how you see this game playing out, Harris is an RB1 without much hesitation. If not, we could be in trouble.
Harris has produced at least 15% below expectations in each of his past three. If the game script flips in favor of Jaylen Warren, we could be looking at low efficiency and low-ish volume.
Even in that situation, however, thanks to the matchup, I think you’re penciling in Harris. The Steelers are home underdogs and will be motivated to keep Joe Burrow off the field. As long as they can avoid an early strike, I like the home team in this game, and that means I’ll be overweight on exposure to Harris when it comes to Saturday’s two-game DFS slate.
Jaylen Warren, RB
Updated at 6:30 PM ET on Saturday, January 4
Warren is active for tonight's game.
Jaylen Warren’s usage is trending up, and he’s cleared PPR fantasy expectations by over 5% in five of his past seven games.
That’s encouraging; this could be a great spot to continue this late-season breakout if you believe that the Bengals are going to put points on the board early. Warren is the only player to have 45 rushing yards and five receptions in each of his past two games, a role that almost lands you into RB2 status by itself.
The red-zone usage has my eye on Warren. The backup back has six touches inside the 20-yard line over Pittsburgh’s past two games, a nice jump forward for a player who had four such touches in his previous five. Najee Harris has six such touches over that stretch as well, so it’s not as if the high-value touches are all for Warren, but his piece of that pie is certainly growing.
I like the Steelers in this game, and that has me trending toward Harris as the leader of this backfield. That said, I think we have 30 PPR points to distribute, and the pendulum could very much swing in Warren’s favor should Cincinnati land the first body blow.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR
Ja’Marr Chase dropped a second-quarter end-zone target last week, and according to my official database, that was the first mistake he had made all season.
OK, so that might be a little bit of a stretch, but you get the idea. He’s positioned to take home the receiving triple crown this season and will be in consideration for 1.01 status this summer. Chase has posted 12 top-20 finishes this season, proving to offer a stable floor to compliment a ceiling that, when everything is clicking, feels close to limitless.
Cincinnati’s star has nine straight games with at least six receptions. Only 15 times in the history of this great game has such a streak reached double figures, a list that is littered with Michael Thomas and Wes Welker types, speaking to the versatility of Chase.
Tee Higgins, WR
Updated at 6:30 PM ET on Saturday, January 4
Higgins is active for tonight's game.
Tee Higgins is an alpha receiver, and he showed it last week. Realistically, he’s showed it off most of this season (10 touchdowns in 11 games) and will be getting paid handsomely by someone this offseason.
We will deal with the fallout of Higgins changing teams should it happen this summer, but I can assure you that I’ll be bullish on a talent like this in almost any situation. (Tip to the kids out there, always hedge a statement like that this far in advance with a word like “almost” — we’ve seen some pretty ugly situations across the NFL.)
When it comes to Week 18, why would you have any concerns? Sure, the matchup is less than ideal, but it’s less than ideal for all members of this passing game. And given how Burrow is playing right now, someone is going to produce.
Why not Higgins? His 27% target share in the Week 13 meeting with the Steelers (5-69-1 stat line) led the team, and we’ve finally seen target efficiency from him.
- Last two weeks: 82.6% catch rate
- First 15 weeks: 61.7% catch rate
The Bengals have as much at stake as any team this week, and Higgins is, to my knowledge, fully healthy. When those boxes are checked, you play him and don’t think twice about it.
George Pickens, WR
George Pickens was hardly used in Week 17 (three catches on 41 routes), but the important part is that he was on the field and didn’t suffer any reported setbacks after missing three straight games.
In his seven games before the injury, Pittsburgh’s WR1 was averaging one catch every 6.4 routes and that is more along the lines of what we can expect this week and during the postseason.
The Bengals did a good job limiting his opportunities in their Week 13 meeting (16.7% target share), but that doesn’t mean they succeeded in slowing him down (74 yards and a touchdown). This is a gift matchup, and you’re fortunate that the Steelers remain alive in the chase for the AFC North — full speed ahead for those with Pickens on their roster.
Mike Williams, WR
Man, has this been a slow and fruitless grind (is that the opposite of ‘fruitful’? It feels right) for those of us who thought Mike Williams would impact the hierarchy of the AFC?
I’m a stubborn person, and I still think there is a world in which he makes impact plays in high-leverage spots this postseason, but there has been essentially nothing to show for rostering him during his time with the Steelers.
Yes, he has four straight games with the most minor snap share bumps, but the on-field production hasn’t been there in the slightest. Williams owns a 19.1-yard aDOT with Pittsburgh – I’m sure I’ll have money tied up in postseason props with him, especially when they get the Texans (28th in yards per deep completion against) in the first round of the playoffs on a fast track, but we can address that this time next week.
For now, you’re approaching this situation much like the Steelers have and waiting.
Pat Freiermuth, TE
I thought we could see a change in passing game usage from the Steelers as the postseason picture comes into focus – I just thought Mike Williams would be the focus of it.
Instead, Pittsburgh is sliding Pat Freiermuth into the slot (three straight games with the majority of his routes coming when lined up there) and I actually like how it looks with the threat of George Pickens on the outside.
He owns an 85.1% catch rate this season and turned a 19.4% target share into a 6-68-1 stat line in this matchup five weeks ago. I’m not projecting him for a repeat performance in terms of production, but I think that level of involvement is about right. In what could be a high-scoring game, I think you’re playing Freiermuth with more confidence this week than any of the first 17.
Mike Gesicki, TE
The idea of Mike Gesicki is so sound, but the production has been spotty. We saw the de facto WR3 on this offense run 42 routes last week and pay it off with 86 yards (12 targets). I’d love to tell you that we can copy/paste that usage over into the finale – another must-win game – but I can’t.
In the middle of the season, we saw Gesicki earn 23 targets across three games, only to follow that up with a five-game stretch that netted just 16 looks. Further impacting his floor is the type of target he’s been seeing (six straight games without an end-zone opportunity).
There is certainly variance to consider, but if you’re simply targeting a profile, Gesicki’s as a professional route runner in a pass-heavy script should have your attention. In the Week 13 meeting with the Steelers, he caught all five of his targets for 53 yards – I think that’s about what you can expect with the season on the line.