Fantasy football managers need to start the week off on a high note, and there are certainly some upside plays to consider in the first game of Week 11. The Cincinnati Bengals‘ fantasy outlook is centered around their pass catchers, while the Baltimore Ravens‘ fantasy preview revolves around their crowded backfield, which is getting difficult to project.
TNF Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Ravens -4
- Total: 46
- Bengals implied points: 21
- Ravens implied points: 25
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Last week wasn’t a masterclass in quarterbacking (two interceptions and four sacks), but Burrow continues to move toward the form of a fantasy difference-maker that we thought he’d be back in August.
He has now posted a passer rating north of 88.0 in five straight games (multiple TD passes in all five contests), a threshold he hit exactly zero times in four games to open the season. Burrow easily cleared 300 yards for a second consecutive game, this time without Tee Higgins in the mix, and his aggression is what should have you excited.
In those past two games, his aDOT has jumped 25.9% from where it stood through eight weeks. His willingness to push the ball down the field is what can make him an elite option coming down the stretch of the fantasy season, especially when he has a full set of healthy receivers.
Is this a tough matchup? Obviously, but he’s still a top-10 play with relative ease. He dropped back 43 times in that game, and if that is the case again on Thursday night, I’ll trust it. The Ravens made it a point to take away Ja’Marr Chase in that game (31 yards on eight targets), and that allowed Higgins to get loose for 89 yards and two scores.
With Chase rounding into form, it’ll be interesting to see if the Ravens can execute a similar plan (assuming Higgins is back). With five Tanner Hudson targets on the first drive last week, Burrow showed the type of patience we need to see in addition to the increase in aggression. Joe Cool is my QB6 this week and my top-ranked fantasy QB in this game.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
As good as the Ravens as a team have looked, Jackson has not finished any of the past three weeks as a QB1 (two total TD passes over that stretch despite Baltimore putting 99 points on the board).
That’s a problem in a few ways. First, the ability for a team to thrive without your fantasy piece succeeding is a red flag. It shows that they aren’t motivated to keep your fantasy team afloat. That may sound goofy, but think about it.
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The Eagles, the Bills … heck, the Texans at this point. Those are teams who need their QB to produce fantasy numbers for them to succeed, and because they win at a high level, their quarterbacks come with a preloaded floor that is usable.
The Dolphins, the 49ers, and yes, the Ravens, don’t (always) need statistically impactful play from their QB to succeed. That creates a low floor that we have to acknowledge but can’t do much about.
Jackson is great, and I have no issue with labeling him a lineup lock every single week. But droughts like what his fantasy managers are currently going through shouldn’t be shocking — this is a really good team capable of winning in a variety of ways.
You’re starting Jackson (he was QB9 in this matchup two months ago), but you need to be aware that while Baltimore’s range of outcomes is reasonably narrow and positive, the same does not apply to their QB.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
It’s rarely exciting, but Mixon has been no worse than an RB2 in all three games since the Week 7 bye and is providing consistent production as this offense finds its footing.
The high-end rushing production might be a thing of the past (yet to hit 90 yards on the ground, and he has five games with under 60 yards), but with a touchdown in three straight and multiple receptions in five in a row, Mixon is a safe weekly play that carries limited risk.
Back in Week 2, he totaled 95 yards on 17 touches against these stingy Ravens, and that landed him as RB20. I think a similar fantasy point total (11.5) is a reasonable expectation in this spot, and with the running back landscape decimated from what it was in September, that lands him a spot in my top 15 at the position.
Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens
If you want to talk about a fragile fantasy profile, this is it. Edwards is a one-dimensional back (seven catches this season, and anytime a veteran running back has more years on this planet than career receptions, it’s not a great sign) without significant volume (two games north of 15 carries this season).
If you gave me that profile with no other context, I’d tell you that he’s not rosterable. He has just two splash plays all season long (gains over 20 yards), so this isn’t a Saquon Barkley type of runner where one run can make up for a dozen ordinary ones. Nothing Edwards does is fantasy-friendly until he gets inside the 10-yard line, and he just so happens to play for an offense that does that as much as anyone in the game.
With seven touchdowns over the past month, I can’t blame you for riding the Gus Bus until the wheels fall off. He’s the inverse of Jackson right now. The Ravens don’t need him to put up fantasy numbers in order for them to be successful; he just happens to be doing it right now. If the scoring dries up, Edwards is a Flex play more than anything.
That’s the range in which I have him ranked. I have him behind players I trust to get more touches (James Conner and James Cook types) and behind players I identify as having a higher Week 11 ceiling despite lower touch ceilings (Jahmyr Gibbs and Raheem Mostert types).
Edwards and Brian Robinson are the Spider-Man meme in terms of what they bring to the table, and I am treading very lightly around them moving forward — both are great sell options as your trade deadline approaches!
Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens
I think we can be done here. He was on the field for half the snaps of Edwards and only one more than the explosive Keaton Mitchell, positioning him to be meaningless for our purposes.
Yes, he had a touchdown called back last week, and his box score looks different if that counts, but if I’m going to be worried about the usage of the lead back, I can’t get behind holding onto the RB3 in this offense.
Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Two more explosive plays for the rookie, and his 15 touches this season have gained a modest 209 yards (two touchdowns). On four touches against one of the best defenses in the league last week, Mitchell provided solid RB2 production.
I can already hear you guys complaining.
“Kyle preached this ‘outlier production’ narrative when De’Von Achane burst onto the scene and was dead wrong. Why would I listen to him in a similar situation again?”
Fair point. But these outlier performances are outliers for a reason. Betting against undersized receivers is a good bet over time, but it doesn’t mean that players like Tyreek Hill don’t exist. The same train of thought applies here. This is a great start to his career, but let’s pump the breaks just a touch.
He was undrafted out of East Carolina for a reason. He made his season debut (once healthy) on special teams for a reason. He got four touches last week for a reason. I’m not at all suggesting that what he has done up to this point isn’t impressive; I am suggesting that he’s probably not averaging 13.9 yards per touch for much longer.
In this offense that can hurt you in a variety of ways, Mitchell is an option but not the option. He’s outside of my top 30 at the position and still isn’t someone I’m seriously considering starting.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Was the back injury limiting his usage early on? It was, but the big play is part of the profile here, and his 64-yard TD made all concerns go right out the window!
Chase finished with five catches for 124 yards and that touchdown against the Texans, continuing a strong run of production. I have zero concerns about Higgins eating into his target share when he returns, and I think the attention Higgins demands (assuming reasonable health) is actually a good thing for Chase’s production floor.
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With Tyler Boyd and Trenton Irwin producing last week, it is clear that Burrow doesn’t feel obligated to force the ball to his alpha. Again, I think this is a good thing; it shows that his QB is operating at a high level. Call me crazy, but when rostering a receiver, I’m generally on board with the idea of my QB finding his groove and seeing the game slow down for him.
Chase is in the WR1 overall conversation for the remainder of the season.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
A nagging hamstring injury kept Higgins sidelined last week, and that can make it easy to forget how productive he was in the two games immediately following the bye: 13 catches on 15 targets for 179 yards. Not a bad sign for a receiver that went 8-89-2 in the Week 2 meeting against these Ravens.
He was the 14th WR off of boards this summer, and he’s not yet that high in my rankings (especially in this spot). He’s certainly trending in the right direction if he gets a clean bill of health pregame.
Baltimore has largely excelled at limiting top receiving options, thus opening the door for Higgins to have the success that he did back in September. Here are some of the players to lead their team in receiving yards against the Ravens:
Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
You could argue that Boyd’s best game of the season (eight catches on 12 targets for 117 yards) was the direct result of Higgins sitting out or that the early birthday vibes were strong (turned 30 on Wednesday), but how would you explain this being his third top 25 performance over a four-game stretch?
Now, I don’t expect him to be a WR2 moving forward, but for the right fantasy team, he’s a viable Flex option. His role is stable (6.8 targets per game), and that’s great for his floor with Burrow playing well, but the lack of yardage upside (aside from Sunday) is a concern – he didn’t have a 15-yard catch until Week 8 this season, and there have been six games in which he has failed to clear 40 receiving yards.
His Week 10 gem should have been even better, as he dropped a go-ahead 13-yard score down the stretch. He looked great, and yet, the thing that affected his ROS ranking most for me last week was what Trenton Irwin did.
Trenton Irwin, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
In the previous game that Higgins sat, Irwin’s snap share was ahead of Boyd, and he proved plenty capable with a 32-yard score on the first possession against the Texans.
For the game, he was on the field for 81.3% of the snaps and boasted an 80.9% route participation rate. Those are meaningful metrics that make Irwin a DFS option if the Bengals are missing one of their three primary pieces. Once Higgins returns, Irwin should be on waiver wires – I’m not interested in rostering a WR4; I’ll spend FAAB or a waiver priority should another injury occur.
As for the Boyd thing, Irwin and Tanner Hudson combined to see 28.2% of the Week 10 targets. To me, that hints that this offense has the bandwidth to support three viable pass catchers.
I’m putting it on your radar now, just as something to keep stashed in the back of your mind: the Bengals get the Chiefs in Week 17. That will be a game with a high total, and the Chiefs have proven capable of shutting down primary threats lately. There could be some high-floor upside at the perfect time.
- Week 9 vs. MIA: Tyreek Hill – 6.2 yards per target
- Week 8 at DEN: Courtland Sutton – 29 yards
- Week 7 vs. LAC: Keenan Allen – 6.1 yards per target
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
So close! Jackson missed the rookie on what should have been a 41-yard touchdown, and if that play connects, the discourse is completely different.
As it is, Flowers turned in his second-best game since September (five catches for 73 yards). The inconsistencies of Jackson give Flowers a low floor, no matter how good you think he is, and that’s terrifying for an offense that prefers to run the ball.
I have Flowers outside of my top 35 due in large part to his lack of upside in a low-octane offense. He was not one of the three Ravens with a 30-yard catch last week, has gone three straight without a 20-yard grab, and hasn’t scored in the United States this season (anyone else having Kyle Pitts flashbacks?).
He needs to be rostered in all formats, but I’d rather roll the dice on an upside play like Jahan Dotson or play the matchup card with Calvin Ridley (vs. Titans).
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Baltimore Ravens
That’s consecutive games with a touchdown for the veteran, and on Sunday, he showed the catch-and-run potential that we’ve seen in the past when he took a slant 40 yards to the house.
The single-play upside is good to see, and the potency of this offense fuels his potential, but I’m not sold. He has two games this season with 5+ targets, and that’s because he’s just not on the field enough (ran a route on 40% of Jackson’s dropbacks last week).
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Rashod Bateman was on the field twice as often as OBJ last week, so I’m not even sure that Beckham would be the dart I’d throw on this offense if I was hellbent on doing so.
But I’m not. I’m not rostering a Ravens pass catcher not named Mark Andrews or Zay Flowers.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
For the fourth time in five games, Andrews failed to earn more than six targets last week, and it resulted in a season-low 5.4 fantasy points.
There’s nothing actionable to do here. My preseason rankings at the TE position were Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, and Andrews, and that is the exact order I have them in moving forward.
The floor performance wasn’t fun to sit through, but he had a TD or 10 targets in five of his six games prior, a usage that will give you the edge over the majority of your league at the position.
Andrews led the Ravens in catches (five) and targets (eight), and he scored in the Week 1 meeting with the Bengals — a stat line I think he can repeat tonight.
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