It has not been a fun season for the Cincinnati Bengals in 2024, with contract disputes, injuries, and general poor play leaving them clinging onto their playoff hopes by a thread. But their win on Sunday over the Browns has kept them alive. As things stand, they are 7-8 and two games behind the seventh spot in the AFC playoff picture.
The Bengals’ fate is not in their hands, however, and they are left needing help over the final two weeks of the NFL season to make the postseason. Let’s look at what their path to the playoffs might be.
What Is the Cincinnati Bengals’ Current Playoff Picture?
The Bengals are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the AFC playoff picture. They cannot win the AFC North and must make the postseason as a Wild Card team. Entering Week 16, there were 131,032 possible scenarios that do not involve a tie as to how the AFC Wild Card picture could play out — but not many of them have the Bengals going to the playoffs this season.
With the Ravens’ win on Saturday (clinching a postseason berth), the Bengals are basically left targeting the two AFC Wild Card spots currently occupied by the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers, both teams being 9-6. But the Bengals also must contend with the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins as well in the Wild Card race.
The path to the playoffs is pretty straightforward for the Bengals: They must win their remaining two games against the Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals also need the Broncos to lose to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18. Additionally, the Bengals also need the Colts and Dolphins to lose one more game each.
To summarize, the Bengals’ path to the postseason requires each of the following to happen:
1) Bengals win remaining two games; AND
2) Broncos lose to the Chiefs in Week 18; AND
3) Colts lose at least one of their remaining two games; AND
4) Dolphins lose at least one of their remaining two games.
Explaining the Bengals’ Narrow Path to the Postseason
It’s worth noting that the Bengals cannot catch the Chargers in the AFC Wild Card race. The Chargers’ 34-27 win over the Bengals paired with their superior record within the conference means there’s no way for the Bengals to pass the Chargers even if both teams end the season 9-8.
At 9-8, the Bengals would also lose any tiebreaker to the Colts and Dolphins. If both the Colts and Dolphins reached nine wins, which means both win their remaining game, each of those teams would have better conference records (7-5) than Cincinnati, even if the Bengals win out (6-6).
MORE: AFC Wild Card Playoff Scenarios
The only team the Bengals would have a tiebreaker over if they get to nine wins is the Broncos. Therefore, Miami and Indianapolis losing at least one game each is required for the Bengals to squeak into the AFC playoffs.
Make sure to check out Pro Football Network’s updated playoff percentages to find out exactly how likely a Bengals postseason trip is. And then head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
AFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (9-7)
In The Hunt
9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
11. New York Jets (4-12)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
15. New England Patriots (3-13)
16. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
