Coming off their second consecutive AFC Championship Game, the Cincinnati Bengals looked like shoo-ins for the playoffs entering the 2023 NFL campaign. But Joe Burrow’s calf injury helped lead to a slow Bengals start.
Cincinnati has since rebounded, but the club hasn’t faced a more significant game than what’s ahead on Thursday Night Football — an intradivisional matchup against the Baltimore Ravens.
How will the Bengals’ playoff chances change with a win or a loss against Baltimore? What could the AFC North look like after Thursday’s matchup?
The Bengals’ Playoff Chances Heading Into Week 11
A close loss to the Houston Texans in Week 10 dropped the Bengals to 5-4 and moved them outside the playoff picture. If the postseason started today, Cincinnati wouldn’t be in the dance — but the rest of the AFC North would be in.
Entering Thursday’s game, the Bengals still have a decent shot of getting into the tournament. The New York Times’ projection model gives Cincinnati a 44% chance of earning a playoff berth in 2023.
Clearly, Zac Taylor’s team felt its postseason hopes would be more secure than that by Week 11. But the Bengals still have the seventh-best playoff odds in the AFC.
MORE: Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart
A win over the Ravens (7-3) would be massive. Not only is Baltimore leading the AFC North, but they’re the No. 2 seed in the conference standings behind the Kansas City Chiefs.
New #Bengals pod with @ByJayMorrison!
• Previewing tonight's massive game against the Ravens
• Can the Bengals still win the AFC North?
• Ranking some events that may or may not happen on TNFWatch: https://t.co/n9nxj5lKOt
— Dallas Robinson (@DallasDRobinson) November 16, 2023
If Cincinnati wins on TNF, its playoff odds will increase to 61%. The Bengals’ chances of winning the AFC North would still remain relatively low, around 14%.
However, that’s simply in a vacuum. We have to look at what else could happen — especially inside the division — in Week 11.
As luck would have it, the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers also face each other this week. Luckily for the Bengals, neither a Browns win nor a Steelers win can reduce Cincinnati’s playoff chances.
A Bengals win + a Steelers win would give Cincinnati roughly a 63% of making the playoffs. Replace Pittsburgh with Cleveland and the numbers hardly change (62%).
Bengals’ Rest-of-Season Schedule
Even if the Bengals pull out a win over the Ravens on Thursday night, they’ll still have to face a “gauntlet” of a schedule — Taylor’s words — to close the season.
In fact, Pro Football Network’s strength of schedule matrix — an aggregate of the PFN Consensus Power Rankings, remaining schedule win percentage, and other team-specific metrics — says Cincinnati has the most difficult remaining slate in the NFL.
Here’s the rest of the Bengals’ schedule:
- Week 11: at Baltimore Ravens
- Week 12: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 13: at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 14: vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Week 15: vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Week 16: at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 17: at Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 18: vs. Cleveland Browns
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