This Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars matchup features two offenses going in opposite directions. Cincinnati is without Joe Burrow for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense is one of the hottest in the NFL.
With this in mind, how should you approach your player prop bets for Monday Night Football? Let’s take a look at our favorite Bengals vs. Jaguars player prop bets for tonight.
Top Bengals vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets
Jake Browning Under 21.5 Completions (-140 at DraftKings)
Blewis: This will be Jake Browning’s first career road start, and although Tee Higgins is returning to the lineup, I still like fading him in this spot.
Joe Mixon had only eight carries in their loss to the Steelers last week, yet Browning still threw for fewer than 21 completions. Browning faced a Steelers defense that is one of the best in the NFL last week, but this Jaguars unit is nearly as good.
Like the Steelers last week, the Jags should be able to put plenty of pressure on Browning going against this Bengals OL that is 30th in pass block win rate. This should lead to plenty of sacks, as Browning has a 31.8% pressure-to-sack ratio, according to Pro Football Focus, the third-worst of any quarterback to start and play an entire game this season. For context, when Burrow was healthy, his was 19.5%.
Joe Mixon Under 72.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Last week, we had one of the easiest cashes all season on Joe Mixon under 87.5 rush + receiving yards. The line is obviously much lower this week, but it’s not low enough. Books are not reacting quickly enough to how damaging Jake Browning is for this entire offense.
Mixon carried the ball eight times for 16 yards last week. He caught two passes for 44 yards, which salvaged his day but still got him nowhere near last week’s line or what this week’s is.
Things are not about to get much easier against a Jaguars run defense that surrenders 59 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry to running backs.
I’m expecting another performance like last week. Mixon should touch the ball more, resulting in a better final number on the ground, but I don’t expect 44 yards through the air. Another 60-yard outing seems reasonable.
Ja’Marr Chase Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at FanDuel)
Blewis: My initial reaction was that this number was far too low, but I’m not sure Ja’Marr Chase is going to have enough opportunities or deep shots downfield to go over this number.
Only three of Browning’s pass attempts this season have been for 20 yards or more. At a 7.3% rate, that’s only higher than five of 56 quarterbacks that have at least one attempt downfield for the season (Brian Hoyer, Daniel Jones, Bryce Young, Tim Boyle, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson). It’s obviously a very small sample size, but I also think it could be a sign of things to come for this Bengals passing game with an inexperienced backup QB.
Also, if you remember last week, two of Chase’s catches last week were off deflections — two flukey catches that inflated his 81-yard game.
Calvin Ridley Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Since October, pass catchers that you considered for your fantasy lineups have had some success against the Bengals. Here’s a look at the yardage totals for those players:
- Week 4 (TEN): Hopkins (63 receiving yards)
- Week 5 (AZ): Brown (61)
- Week 6 (SEA): Lockett (94), Metcalf (69)
- Week 8 (SF): Kittle (149), Aiyuk (109)
- Week 9 (BUF): Diggs (86), Kincaid (81)
- Week 10 (HOU): Brown (172), Schultz (71), Dell (56)
- Week 11 (BAL): Beckham (116), Flowers (43)
- Week 12 (PIT): Freiermuth (120), Pickens (58), Johnson (50)
Excluded from this sample are Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Gabe Davis. Like JSN as much as you’d like now, but he wasn’t on your starting roster radar back in Week 6 (only two teams on a bye). Davis offers fantasy intrigue, but he’s not the type you lock into your lineup. So that’s the sample we have.
Overall, we are looking at 16 players averaging 87.4 receiving yards per game when facing the Bengals. In total, 14 of those 16 players cleared 55 receiving yards, with a player producing north of 85 yards in five straight games.
With Travis Etienne battling a chest injury and Trevor Lawrence playing his best ball of the year, who is to say that the Jaguars ruin this trend?
When taking position into account, Calvin Ridley (89.4 yards per game when Zay Jones is active) and Evan Engram (third at the position in catches, targets, and target share) are the two highest in our PFN Consensus Rankings of the Jacksonville pass catchers and the two I’m banking on extending that streak!
Evan Engram Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: This is an awfully low number for a guy who has caught at least four passes in every game this season. Evan Engram’s targeting has been very consistent. This week, I expect him to be featured against a Bengals defense that really struggles against the tight end.
The Bengals are allowing 70 receiving yards per game to the position, the second-most in the league. Engram averages 47 receiving yards per game. So, this line is lower than his season average, and the opponent is as favorable as it gets.
Not only do I like Engram over this number, but I think a ladder up to 80 yards is a worthwhile move.
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