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    Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Picks, Prediction Week 15: Sam Darnold and Company in Reach of the No. 1 Seed

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    The Vikings have a clear path to the division and a shot at the No. 1 seed. Check our predictions to see if they can avoid the Bears' upset bid.

    The Chicago Bears have lost seven straight games and fired their offensive coordinator and head coach. Ever since losing on that Hail Mary to the Washington Commanders, the season has been disastrously bad, and many folks are already looking forward to the 2025 version of this team. But outside of last week’s brutal loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Bears had three straight divisional losses at the last second in excruciating fashion.

    The Minnesota Vikings, meanwhile, are 11-2 with losses to the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions. With Detroit on the schedule for the final game of the season and the Buffalo Bills’ win over the Lions on Sunday, the Vikings have a shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed and the division. Unfortunately, if both the Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles win out, the Eagles would get the one seed based on conference tiebreakers.

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    Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More

    • Spread
      Vikings -7
    • Moneyline
      Vikings (-345); Bears (+275)
    • Over/Under
      44 total points
    • Game Time
      8 p.m ET
    • Location
      U.S. Bank Stadium

    Bears vs. Vikings Preview and Prediction

    According to TruMedia, the Vikings rank 13th in offensive EPA (expected points added) per play and 12th in success rate. Minnesota’s offense does an absurd job of finding chunk/explosive plays, ranking first in passes of 20+ yards and seventh in runs of 10+ yards. This will be a huge advantage against a Bears defense that ranks 27th in passing explosives and 24th in rushing explosives.

    Despite a rush game that ranks 17th in EPA and 24th in yards per rush, Minnesota is great at play-action passing. Ranking third in EPA under play-action, the Vikings’ threat of breaking off huge rushing gains, as well as having a Shanahan disciple, Kevin O’Connell, bodes well to their abilities faking the run. Chicago ranks 23rd in EPA against play-action.

    The Vikings’ offensive line ranks 11th in pass blocking, but the pressure has been alarming. They’ve given up the sixth-most quick pressures per dropback (pressure in less than 2.5 seconds).

    While this isn’t good, it also doesn’t help that Sam Darnold likes to hold on to the ball. He has the third-longest time to throw in the NFL, behind only Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.

    Unlike Jackson, Darnold doesn’t evade pressure quite as much. He ranks 35th of 43 qualified quarterbacks in pressure-to-sack rate. Additionally, Minnesota has a sack rate of 9.5%, which ranks 29th in the league. With an average time to throw of 3.14 seconds, we can compare how the Vikings perform in throws less and more than that to understand whether this is an issue for the offense.

    Minnesota’s offense ranks 13th on throws shorter than average (0.14 EPA per play) and fifth on throws longer than average (0.15). Turns out, the sacks don’t outweigh the opportunity for huge plays when you have Justin Jefferson (and company) running routes.

    Chicago’s defense runs the third-most Cover 3, which falls in line with league-average time to throw. Against Cover 3, Minnesota’s offense ranks 10th in EPA.

    Chicago’s defense also does a tremendous job of generating pressure, ranking fifth in pressure generated and 11th in quick pressure generated. They only blitz on 25% of dropbacks (14th-most).

    The Bears rank fifth in time to throw this season, much of which can be a result of Caleb Williams’ tendency to hold onto the ball. While he’s shown flashes of skill-creating plays, the receivers aren’t creating much separation.

    According to PFF’s separation statistics, the Bears rank 23rd in average separation score. Of the 127 players with enough targets to qualify, the four Chicago players rank 50th, 64th, 80th, and 109th.

    In the first matchup with Minnesota, the Bears were able to completely neutralize the vaunted Vikings defense by going against their typical tendencies. They averaged 2.63 seconds on dropbacks and, as a result, were only pressured and blitzed on 21.8% of dropbacks.

    Despite only gaining 3.5 yards per rush and their one turnover coming from the ground game, the Vikings’ game was one of Williams’ best performances but unfortunately came with a defeat in overtime. In fact, Williams has performed best when the coaches allow him to do his thing.

    Of Chicago’s top five EPA performances this season, four of them also happened to be top five scrambling performances from Williams. This is a direct result of him being told to take off more often. The Bears rank seventh in EPA on designed QB runs this season.

    Chicago performed really well against Minnesota the last time these two faced. Unfortunately, the Vikings are just too explosive on offense, aggressive on defense, and have a huge advantage coaching-wise.

    My pick: Vikings -7 (-110)

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