The Chicago Bears will face the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bears and Vikings skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 15 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Caleb Williams, QB | CHI
Caleb Williams has four top-six finishes on his rookie year resume and I think, entering the year, we would have taken that. The problem, however, is that he has only a pair of top-15 finishes since the huge Week 6 performance, something that is symbolic of the floor that he carries weekly.
Him getting Rome Odunze a pair of touchdowns last week was great to see for those of us holding long-term stock in this offense, though I’d caution against reading too much into it when it comes to value for the remainder of this season.
The rushing profile is nice (27+ yards on the ground in four straight), but the unwillingness to push the ball down field (7.0 aDOT or lower in four of his past five games) is a fantasy production suppressant. He was able to dominate the Vikings in the Week 12 meeting, but is a 149.1 passer rating against the blitz really something we can count on him reproducing?
I’m happy to bet on this aggressive defense adjusting their exotic calls and making Williams uncomfortable with far more regularity than the first game. If you’re trying to get creative in a DFS setting during the two-game Monday night slate, go for it — but in season-long leagues with zero teams on a bye, there’s no reason to take on this risk in my opinion.
Sam Darnold, QB | MIN
Sam Darnold is coming off of the best game of his career and has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback eight times this season, including in each of his past four games.
He’s been nothing short of phenomenal, and while I want to bet against him, there’s nothing supporting doing so. He’s been exceptional against pressure (13.0 yards per attempt over his past four games with five touchdowns and zero picks), and that’s the calling card of this Bears defense.
In Week 12, Darnold completed 8 of 13 pressured attempts against this unit, and that was with Chicago successfully shutting down Justin Jefferson. Darnold is my QB11 this week and a part of a tier that ranges up to QB8. He’s the most reliable fantasy quarterback in this division right now, a sentence you would have never been able to sell me on three short months ago.
Aaron Jones, RB | MIN
Aaron Jones has produced over expectations in consecutive games after going through five straight underachieving performances. Behind the impressive season from Sam Darnold, this Vikings offense ranks third in pass rate over expectations, and Jones has been able to pay that off with an 86% catch rate.
We already have proof of production against the Bears (25 touches for 129 yards and a score in Week 12), and I’m inclined to think we see more of the same this week. This offense hasn’t been shy about loading up their bell cow with work (five games with 20 touches and six games with four targets), and that is the driving force behind ranking him as a strong RB2 in this spot as a sizable favorite.
The fumble issues are not to be ignored (four fumbles in the three games before a strong showing last week against the Falcons), but as long as he can hold onto the rock, he’s a solid bet.
Cam Akers, RB | MIN
Cam Akers remains the definitive handcuff to Aaron Jones and nothing more. He’ll slide into the back end of my RB2 rankings should Jones end up missing time for any reason, but he’ll remain comfortably outside of my top 30 any week that’s not the case — and that’s where we stand right now.
D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI
D’Andre Swift is trending in the wrong direction with three straight finishes outside of the top 20 at the position, and I worry that doesn’t change this week with a matchup against the fifth-best run defense.
Roschon Johnson’s status (concussion) could prove to be awfully impactful here. Swift’s rushing value is moving in the wrong direction (four straight sub-15 carry games, three straight with under 40 rushing yards), and if he doesn’t have access to the work inside the 5-yard line, we’re talking about an awfully thin profile.
Pace of play often gets overlooked, but you’re a PFN follower, so that’s not the case for you. You’re aware that the Vikings operate at the fourth-slowest pace and that such a style of play carries with it possession downside.
Swift is a Flex play this week but not a must-start if you have nice receiver depth.
Roschon Johnson, RB | CHI
The process of playing Johnson at any point is simple: touchdown chasing. Six of his 48 carries this season have resulted in a one-yard score, otherwise offering very little.
Johnson sat out last week with a concussion, and it’s fair to worry about his status as he was unable to practice in any capacity, even with the mini-bye. Generally speaking, I’m in favor of punting on a role like this and chasing a player with a higher touch/target projection.
All that said — he has been ruled out for Week 15, which means I’m moving up D’Andre Swift a few spots in my rankings.
DJ Moore, WR | CHI
DJ Moore has four straight games with at least seven targets, and while that’s a positive, the production patterns are nearly as optimistic.
In this up-and-down Caleb Williams offense, Moore has produced under expectations in seven of his past nine games. I blame the underwhelming nature of his stat lines on a role that carries very little upside (his aDOT has been 5.0 yards or lower in four of his past five). If Williams is going to be sporadic, I want the reward to be great when he connects, and that isn’t really going to be the case given this target trajectory.
That said, you can justify Flexing Moore because we saw him catch all seven of his targets for 106 yards and a score in this exact matchup back in Week 12. Personally, I’d rather roll the dice on getting “the good” Jameis Winston to support Jerry Jeudy or a viable version of Mac Jones to get Brian Thomas Jr. to the finish line over Moore this week.
Jordan Addison, WR | MIN
There are three players in the league with multiple 8-130-1 receiving games this season — two of the names you’d expect and the other is the header to this section of this novel.
- Ja’Marr Chase (three)
- Nico Collins (two)
- Jordan Addison (two)
There is certainly a defensive component to that (four of those seven games have come against the Ravens or Bears), but there is also a specific type of receiver that is capable of rattling off games like this.
All of those WRs have a career yards-per-catch average of at least 14 yards with over 7.5% of their career receptions resulting in touchdowns. I’m not the least bit optimistic that Addison’s stock flirts with those other two names long-term, but explosion spots like what we saw last week are going to happen (8-133-3).
Addison was a star the last time these teams met (8-162-1), and with the Bears allowing the fourth-most yards per pass this season, that tracks. In that game, Justin Jefferson was held to just two grabs for 27 yards as Chicago devoted all of their resources to slowing him down.
If you’re optimistic that they employ that strategy again, by all means, fire up Addison with confidence. You do need to be aware of the risks that come with this profile — he’s been held under 45 receiving yards five times in 11 games this season.
He’s pushing for top-30 status for me this week, lower than you might assume coming off of the monstrous Week 14.
Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN
The national nightmare ended last week when Justin Jefferson scored for the first time since Week 7, hauling in a 12-yard end-zone target from Sam Darnold.
He added a 52-yard touchdown catch later in the game on a busted coverage situation, and we’ve seen scores come in bunches for the game’s finest receiver (he opened this season with a TD in four straight games and scored in six of eight games during a post-Halloween spurt in 2022).
The Bears took the Vikings to overtime in Week 12 by selling out to keep Jefferson in check (15.6% target share). I have no doubt that they will try to repeat that game plan; I also have little hesitation that Kevin O’Connell schemes up ways to combat that desire.
Whether you want to rank Jefferson as the WR2 or WR8 this week, you’re playing him with the utmost confidence and hoping he can provide you with a Monday night hammer.
Keenan Allen, WR | CHI
Keenan Allen has one game this season with 20+ expected PPR points, and it was Week 12’s meeting with these Vikings (26.7 expected points and 23.6 produced points). He’s been unable to capitalize on the form he showed in that game in the two contests since (103 yards on 76 routes), and that makes him a long shot to repeat his past success.
In that first performance, Allen’s veteran savvy helped him earn a 37.5% on-field third down target share — Caleb Williams was locked onto him when it mattered most. I find it hard to think that the exotic stylings of the Minnesota defense don’t adjust to getting burned by Allen less than a month ago; with Rome Odunze producing in garbage time last week, it appears that Williams is comfortable taking whatever the defense gives him.
Chicago enters this game with an implied point total of under 20, leaving me with little faith that we see multiple pass catchers from this offense produce viable numbers. How lucky do you feel?
It has to be luckier than I — Allen is my WR39 this week, ranking in the Elijah Moore and Adam Thielen tier at the position.
Rome Odunze, WR | CHI
What Rome Odunze did last week was inconsiderate.
The rookie scoring on two of his five targets was great, and if you were forced into playing him (the toe-tap TD being a work of art), congratulations. But this thoughtless act of production now has fantasy managers obligated to consider him as a viable option this week and moving forward.
The nerve.
One week of production is wonderful, but it’s far from predictive, especially in an offense led by an up-and-down rookie who has two proven NFL commodities to funnel targets to.
From Weeks 10-13, there were 62 receivers who saw at least 15 targets — Odunze ranked 60th in production relative to expectations (-41.9%). I’m not here to suggest that he regresses to that level, but with major efficiency and volume risk, there are too many moving pieces to justify playing Odunze this week.
Included in that brutal run of production was a 10-target, 39-yard showing against these Vikings. If we are going down the rankings, Rashod Bateman, Noah Brown, and Michael Wilson all grade out slightly better for me this week.
Cole Kmet, TE | CHI
Risk is a funny thing. It’s kind of like dessert. If the upside is good enough, I’m willing to overlook the high-calorie count or potential health ramifications.
But why take that on if the best case isn’t enough to put a smile on my face? Cole Kmet is a player who needs a touchdown to pay off. That’s a tough sell when you consider that he doesn’t have a single end-zone look during Chicago’s seven-game skid. He’s an Oreo Sundae without ice cream … What’s the point?
He has just three catches for 26 yards to show for his 67 routes run over the past two games. With the receivers taking turns flashing, there’s not nearly enough target upside to even consider Kmet as a realistic option in most situations.
T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN
Fantasy football this time of year, more than any point during the first three months, is about reading trends and making a stand. In Week 5, it’s easy to slow-play a positive trend, wanting to wait for a true breakout before investing, understanding that time is on your side.
We no longer have that luxury as many leagues are in the playoffs now. T.J. Hockenson has posted a snap share north of 60% in three straight games after he was worked back into a full-time role with a sub-50% share in his first three games. He’s on the field consistently in an offense that we trust more now than we did back on draft day — that gives him all sorts of potential when it comes to your willingness to be loyal to him up to this point.
In comparing this season to last, Hockenson’s aDOT is up 11.8% without a dramatic shift in efficiency, a role that looks good on him with nothing but safe weather games to end his regular season. I’m encouraged by the spike in red-zone usage and am willing to label him as a potential league winner that you should feel great about playing.
Last week, while Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison were busy putting on a historic show, Hockenson still caught 80% of his targets, saw an end-zone look, and flirted with double-figure PPR points. If what we saw last week was something of a floor, I’m all the way in for this finishing kick as Minnesota jostles for playoff positioning.