This may not be a Super Bowl rematch like last week’s Monday Night Football game or a Super Bowl preview, but the Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings still has the potential for an exciting divisional matchup.
Joshua Dobbs and the Vikings lost a heartbreaker on Sunday Night Football last week, ending their five-game winning streak. Can they get back on track against Chicago? Let’s dive into the Bears vs. Vikings predictions.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
There has been line movement on the spread and total for the Bears vs. Vikings odds since they opened last Sunday night. Minnesota was originally 3.5-point favorites, and the total was at 44.5, with each dropping slightly.
This is the first time the Vikings have been favored since the last time these two teams played back in Week 6, which was the beginning of Minnesota’s five-game winning streak.
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Spread
Vikings -3 - Moneyline
Bears +136, Vikings -162 - Total
43.5
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Predictions
Blewis: Another prime-time under?! Yes, another prime-time under.
I’ve mentioned previously how much this Vikings defense has improved under Brian Flores, but I also need to acknowledge the turnaround for the Bears’ defense this season. When they started the season 0-4, they were 31st in EPA defensively. Since then, they’ve been the 11th best.
The Vikings lead the NFL in blitz percentage this season by 7%, and the only active starters with a lower passing grade under pressure this season than Justin Fields are Sam Howell, Mac Jones, and Desmond Ridder.
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Chicago’s run defense has been especially good this season, as they lead the NFL in yards allowed per rushing attempt. Aside from last week when they ran for 175 yards against the Broncos, this Vikings rushing offense is one of the worst in the NFL — 27th in yards per carry and 28th in EPA/play — and they might be forced into a one-dimensional, pass-heavy script where Dobbs could struggle.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: In Fields’ past four fully healthy games, DJ Moore has earned 34.3% of the targets, a rate that ranks among the elite. The opportunity count appears to be safe, and in all four games this season in which Moore has caught 5+ passes, he’s cleared 95 receiving yards.
If Moore is going to produce in a strong YAC spot against the blitz-heaviest defense, something has to give. He also has a 34.3% target share in Fields’ past four fully healthy games with four red-zone targets over that stretch.
We’re talking about a clear-cut WR1 (39.9% of Chicago’s receiving yards this season) in an underdog role against a blitz-heavy defense that encourages first-read passes. Happy to take my chances!
Picks: DJ Moore over 4.5 receptions (-115 at DraftKings), over 59.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings), anytime touchdown (+185 at FanDuel)
Katz: I’m not quite sure why this line is so high. The Vikings don’t really want Dobbs throwing a ton. Since joining the team, he’s yet to attempt more than 34 passes.
If Minnesota is trailing, they will air it out to come back. But I don’t envision that being the case against the Bears.
On the season, Dobbs went over this number just twice in Arizona, and once with the Vikings. If the Bears force Dobbs to have to throw, so be it. As long as they don’t, I don’t think the volume will be there, especially with Justin Jefferson out one more week.
Pick: Joshua Dobbs under 237.5 passing yards (-130 at DraftKings)
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