The Chicago Bears will face the Detroit Lions in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bears skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Caleb Williams, QB
Caleb Williams racked up the fantasy numbers in the late stages of the first meeting with the Lions, and while those points counted for you in Week 13, I’m not reading into his 295 yards of offense with three scores as predictive in the slightest for this weekend’s rematch.
The rookie is inconsistent from possession to possession, and that’s a tough way to live against the second-best defense in opponent passer rating. I had hopes this offseason that Williams would offer meaningful production with his legs. Instead, his athleticism is being used to run for his life.
The future is brighter than the present for Williams, both as a fantasy asset and real-life QB.
D’Andre Swift, RB
That’s now two straight games without multiple catches and four straight without a score for D’Andre Swift. He entered last week’s loss to the Vikings listed as questionable with a groin injury, but his usage (20 touches for the first time since Week 9 at Arizona) would suggest that the team wasn’t the least bit concerned.
I think the touch count is what you need to hang your hat on and chase. The touchdowns are going to be spotty until Caleb Williams develops consistency, but if we can bank on 16+ carries and/or multiple catches, something he’s done in 10 of his past 11 games, I think we are looking at a viable RB2 more often than not.
Roschon Johnson, RB
Roschon Johnson (concussion) has now missed consecutive games and is a pretty clear cut for those still playing. He’s proven more than capable of cashing in his scoring opportunities (6 of 8 on carries inside the 5-yard line), but are we at all confident that those opportunities present themselves in this matchup should Johnson suit up?
I’m not. Johnson didn’t get a carry in the Thanksgiving meeting, and while the Bears managed to score 20 points, two of the touchdowns came from beyond 30 yards, a situation in which Johnson is rarely on the field.
If Johnson is active, my D’Andre Swift projection will dip a touch, but this bully back wouldn’t be close to my Flex rankings.
DJ Moore, WR
The Bears have dialed back DJ Moore’s route depth, and while that puts a cap on his ceiling (held without a 20-yard catch in five of his past seven games), Caleb Williams has proven capable of getting him the ball efficiently.
- Week 11 vs. Packers: Seven targets and a 100% catch rate
- Week 12 vs. Vikings: Seven targets, TD, and a 100% catch rate
- Week 13 at Lions: 16 targets and a TD
- Week 14 at 49ers: Eight targets and a 75% catch rate
- Week 15 at Vikings: Eight targets and a 100% catch rate
In PPR formats, I think you can Flex Moore with a reasonable level of confidence. The Bears are struggling to run the ball and figure to be playing from behind this week, a game script that should put enough volume at the feet of their WR1.
Moore was able to post a 44.4% target share on Thanksgiving in this matchup, a rate that I think has almost no chance of repeating. Much of those numbers came late with the Lions in a shell, and Detroit nearly blew the game — getting their hands on Moore figures to be a priority for all 60 minutes on Sunday.
Moore’s elevated floor makes him my favorite Bear receiver, and my projected pass volume for this offense lands him in the same tier with a completely different receiver on the other sideline in Jameson Williams.
Keenan Allen, WR
Without four scores in four games, Keenan Allen is reminding us to not only bet on rookie development with time, but the pieces they touch. Caleb Williams obviously hasn’t had a banner year, but there are some signs weekly that he has potential, and recently, it’s benefited Allen.
Of course, that coin has two sides. Allen posted a season-high 155 air yards on Monday, his sixth triple-digit air-yard performance this season. He also has four sub-50 air-yard showings. The 22.2% target share that he earned in the Week 13 loss to the Lions wasn’t overwhelming, but the 5-73-2 stat line certainly was useful.
Much of that production came with Chicago in panic/chase mode, and we should see plenty of that again on Sunday.
If we’re being honest, I don’t have a ton of confidence in any Bears receiver. However, I would consider all of them if I had them on a semifinal team in a similar vein as the Colts’ receivers who also lack consistent play under center.
Rome Odunze, WR
Much like fellow rookie Xavier Worthy, it’s easy to like the direction the stock of Rome Odunze is heading. The target and expected point numbers are trending up, putting him in position to be a big hit next season.
Could that “big hit” happen this week? I’m not betting on it, but I’m not ruling it out. Odunze was able to uncover in the end zone last week, and if Caleb Williams doesn’t air mail the 12-yard pass, maybe there’s more momentum behind the rookie for this week.
It should be noted that Odunze was shut down in the Thanksgiving game against Detroit. He caught just two passes and averaged a mere 0.75 PPR points per target while Chicago’s two receivers next to him combined to score 2.0 PPR points per look that week.
But if we are evaluating boom/bust options, why not? Detroit has the second-highest opponent aDOT this season, in large part to game scripts, something that I expect to be at play in this spot as the Lions look to rebound from the Week 15 loss to the Bills.
When looking at the Bears’ receiver trio, here’s the breakdown in terms of target and air-yard share:
- Rome Odunze: 29.6% of targets, 40.5% of air yards
- Keenan Allen: 32.7% of targets, 32.2% of air yards
- DJ Moore: 37.7% of targets, 27.3% of air yards
Odunze is sitting around WR40 for me this week, ranking ahead of the hot Keenan Allen and ahead of other deep options like Quentin Johnston and Christian Watson.
Cole Kmet, TE
Since the beginning of November, Chicago’s talented receiving trio has rotated whose day it is to shine. Rome Odunze and DJ Moore have both had 100-yard games during that stretch, while Keenan Allen posted consecutive top-five finishes at the position in Weeks 12-13.
We were always asking a lot of Caleb Williams to provide consistent value to two pass catchers, so why would we enter a matchup with our season on the line with his fourth option in our starting lineup?
Cole Kmet has struggled to make multiple impact plays over the course of 60 minutes all season long, and his 8.3% target share in the first meeting with the Lions doesn’t exactly inspire me with confidence for this game played on short rest.