The Chicago Bears will face the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bears skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 15 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Caleb Williams, QB
Caleb Williams has four top-six finishes on his rookie year resume and I think, entering the year, we would have taken that. The problem, however, is that he has only a pair of top-15 finishes since the huge Week 6 performance, something that is symbolic of the floor that he carries weekly.
Him getting Rome Odunze a pair of touchdowns last week was great to see for those of us holding long-term stock in this offense, though I’d caution against reading too much into it when it comes to value for the remainder of this season.
The rushing profile is nice (27+ yards on the ground in four straight), but the unwillingness to push the ball down field (7.0 aDOT or lower in four of his past five games) is a fantasy production suppressant. He was able to dominate the Vikings in the Week 12 meeting, but is a 149.1 passer rating against the blitz really something we can count on him reproducing?
I’m happy to bet on this aggressive defense adjusting their exotic calls and making Williams uncomfortable with far more regularity than the first game. If you’re trying to get creative in a DFS setting during the two-game Monday night slate, go for it — but in season-long leagues with zero teams on a bye, there’s no reason to take on this risk in my opinion.
D’Andre Swift, RB
D’Andre Swift is trending in the wrong direction with three straight finishes outside of the top 20 at the position, and I worry that doesn’t change this week with a matchup against the fifth-best run defense.
Roschon Johnson’s status (concussion) could prove to be awfully impactful here. Swift’s rushing value is moving in the wrong direction (four straight sub-15 carry games, three straight with under 40 rushing yards), and if he doesn’t have access to the work inside the 5-yard line, we’re talking about an awfully thin profile.
Pace of play often gets overlooked, but you’re a PFN follower, so that’s not the case for you. You’re aware that the Vikings operate at the fourth-slowest pace and that such a style of play carries with it possession downside.
Swift is a Flex play this week but not a must-start if you have nice receiver depth.
Roschon Johnson, RB
The process of playing Johnson at any point is simple: touchdown chasing. Six of his 48 carries this season have resulted in a one-yard score, otherwise offering very little.
Johnson sat out last week with a concussion, and it’s fair to worry about his status as he was unable to practice in any capacity, even with the mini-bye. Generally speaking, I’m in favor of punting on a role like this and chasing a player with a higher touch/target projection.
All that said — he has been ruled out for Week 15, which means I’m moving up D’Andre Swift a few spots in my rankings.
DJ Moore, WR
DJ Moore has four straight games with at least seven targets, and while that’s a positive, the production patterns are nearly as optimistic.
In this up-and-down Caleb Williams offense, Moore has produced under expectations in seven of his past nine games. I blame the underwhelming nature of his stat lines on a role that carries very little upside (his aDOT has been 5.0 yards or lower in four of his past five). If Williams is going to be sporadic, I want the reward to be great when he connects, and that isn’t really going to be the case given this target trajectory.
That said, you can justify Flexing Moore because we saw him catch all seven of his targets for 106 yards and a score in this exact matchup back in Week 12. Personally, I’d rather roll the dice on getting “the good” Jameis Winston to support Jerry Jeudy or a viable version of Mac Jones to get Brian Thomas Jr. to the finish line over Moore this week.
Keenan Allen, WR
Keenan Allen has one game this season with 20+ expected PPR points, and it was Week 12’s meeting with these Vikings (26.7 expected points and 23.6 produced points). He’s been unable to capitalize on the form he showed in that game in the two contests since (103 yards on 76 routes), and that makes him a long shot to repeat his past success.
In that first performance, Allen’s veteran savvy helped him earn a 37.5% on-field third down target share — Caleb Williams was locked onto him when it mattered most. I find it hard to think that the exotic stylings of the Minnesota defense don’t adjust to getting burned by Allen less than a month ago; with Rome Odunze producing in garbage time last week, it appears that Williams is comfortable taking whatever the defense gives him.
Chicago enters this game with an implied point total of under 20, leaving me with little faith that we see multiple pass catchers from this offense produce viable numbers. How lucky do you feel?
It has to be luckier than I — Allen is my WR39 this week, ranking in the Elijah Moore and Adam Thielen tier at the position.
Rome Odunze, WR
What Rome Odunze did last week was inconsiderate.
The rookie scoring on two of his five targets was great, and if you were forced into playing him (the toe-tap TD being a work of art), congratulations. But this thoughtless act of production now has fantasy managers obligated to consider him as a viable option this week and moving forward.
The nerve.
One week of production is wonderful, but it’s far from predictive, especially in an offense led by an up-and-down rookie who has two proven NFL commodities to funnel targets to.
From Weeks 10-13, there were 62 receivers who saw at least 15 targets — Odunze ranked 60th in production relative to expectations (-41.9%). I’m not here to suggest that he regresses to that level, but with major efficiency and volume risk, there are too many moving pieces to justify playing Odunze this week.
Included in that brutal run of production was a 10-target, 39-yard showing against these Vikings. If we are going down the rankings, Rashod Bateman, Noah Brown, and Michael Wilson all grade out slightly better for me this week.
Cole Kmet, TE
Risk is a funny thing. It’s kind of like dessert. If the upside is good enough, I’m willing to overlook the high-calorie count or potential health ramifications.
But why take that on if the best case isn’t enough to put a smile on my face? Cole Kmet is a player who needs a touchdown to pay off. That’s a tough sell when you consider that he doesn’t have a single end-zone look during Chicago’s seven-game skid. He’s an Oreo Sundae without ice cream … What’s the point?
He has just three catches for 26 yards to show for his 67 routes run over the past two games. With the receivers taking turns flashing, there’s not nearly enough target upside to even consider Kmet as a realistic option in most situations.