The Chicago Bears will face the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bears skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Caleb Williams, QB
We are getting breadcrumbs when it comes to the pedigree of Caleb Williams.
OK, more like a singular crumb. The man hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the USA since Week 5, so let’s not get carried away; but with over 45 rushing yards in three of his past five, there are signs of a plan when it comes to his path to fantasy stardom.
Williams shouldn’t be near redraft rosters right now, and I don’t expect that to change, but you can mark this down. I’ll be in on him next season after having a full season to adjust to the speed of the pro game and work with his talented nucleus.
D’Andre Swift, RB
The Bears are struggling, and Roschon Johnson is getting the goal-line work, yet nothing can slow the production machine that is D’Andre Swift.
He cashed in a carry from 39 yards out last weekend, the type of splash play that has become commonplace for a running back who has produced 7.4% over expectation over his past five games despite the shortcomings of everyone around him. As productive as Swift has been (three top-20 finishes over his past four games), I can’t shake this feeling of uncertainty this week.
Remove that long touchdown last week and we are looking at a player with 45 carries for 142 yards in November (3.16 yards per carry). After the first two weeks this season where opposing defenses were trying to gauge what to think of Caleb Williams, Swift has run into a loaded box on 32.8% of his carries, a trend that the aggressive Vikings figure to extend.
Speaking of Minnesota, its crowding of the line of scrimmage has helped fuel the top-rated run defense by success rate. They’ve allowed just 1.4 RB runs of 10+ yards per game this season (tied for the third-fewest), and if the splash play is less likely to be landed by Swift, we are looking at an uphill battle with Chicago as a home underdog.
Swift’s touch floor makes him a starter in just about every season-long format, but I have no interest in plugging him into DFS lineups and wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to start two backs ahead of him (Brian Robinson Jr. and Rico Dowdle are the two I have ranked just ahead of him for Week 12).
Roschon Johnson, RB
For whatever reason, touchdown vultures aren’t as prevalent as they have been in years past.
I take that back. Vulture running backs aren’t as prevalent. Vulture quarterbacks are now all the rage, but the Bears seem hesitant to put Caleb Williams in harm’s way like that, and that has opened the door for Roschon Johnson to carve out a role that has the eye of fantasy managers.
Three players have at least five rushing touchdowns from the one-yard line this season: Jalen Hurts (eight), David Montgomery (five), and Johnson (five).
I’m never going to rank Johnson as a top-30 player; the touch count just doesn’t grade well and banking on an offense stalling inside the five-yard line is a dangerous game to play, but this is a player I want on my roster.
If you’ve played fantasy football for any length of time, you know that there will be a week where you are grasping for straws. You’ll be searching the wire for a six-touch running back or a speedy receiver who, at best, is looking at three targets.
In spots like that, Johnson is perfect, as a six-point carry stands to rank him over those other options. We are looking at a roster-construction play rather than one for whom you look at Week 12’s fantasy rankings for encouragement.
DJ Moore, WR
Week 11 was DJ Moore’s fourth top-30 finish of the season, but it required perfection from an imperfect quarterback. Against the Packers, Caleb Williams was 7-of-7 when throwing to Moore and 66.7% to everyone else.
I want to be encouraged by what we saw last week, but I’m more concerned about the larger profile and its trajectory:
- Weeks 1-5: 21.9% on-field target share, 9.4 aDOT
- Weeks 6-11: 16% on-field target share, 7.5 aDOT
When looking at a set of data like that, you expect target share and aDOT to be inversely correlated. That, however, isn’t the case here, as Moore’s target upside is trending down, and his ability to earn those looks is moving in the wrong direction.
Case in point? Moore had a 100% catch rate and led the team in receptions last week. Yet, he was outscored by Marquez Valdes-Scantling for the week — who ranked fifth for the Saints last week in receptions.
That’s an extreme example, but the point remains. Moore had a total of six air yards last week, and that’s a tough way to make a living.
In Chicago, I prefer Rome Odunze to Moore, and for this week, I like the specific matchups of Quentin Johnston and Jalen Coker over him as well.
Keenan Allen, WR
You’re being silly if you are holding out hope on Keenan Allen at this point.
Anything could happen, but we are in the business of using stats and trends to predict the future. In that vein, there’s nothing suggesting that Allen is anything more than a name you know from past production than a legitimate asset.
The veteran receiver hasn’t posted a 23% on-field target share since the season opener, has scored in one game this season, and has yet to hit 50 yards in a game. You’re overthinking it if you still have Allen rostered. What would he have to do to work his way into your starting lineup the rest of the way?
For me, we’ve crossed the threshold — there’s nothing I could see that would make me feel good about him, and that means I’m burning a roster spot by keeping him.
Rome Odunze, WR
Rome Odunze is coming off his second double-digit target day of his young career, and it helped him clear 100 air yards for the third time in four weeks. There is a foundation being laid in Chicago, and I like the prospects of their rookie receiver being a big part of things, it’s just a matter of whether it comes in 2024 or 2025.
With just one top-30 finish since September, outwardly trusting Odunze is a tough sell. With that understanding, I don’t think you’re crazy in considering him as a high-upside Flex or a DFS building block this weekend given his price point. The Vikings allow a league-high 5.2 receiver receptions of 15+ yards per game, and with an end-zone target in seven of his past nine games, one chunk play might be all it takes.
There’s certainly the risk of a floor week if Caleb Williams struggles against Minnesota’s exotic blitz packages — that needs to be considered. I’ve got Odunze ranked in the mid-30s at the position, with other boom/bust candidates like Christian Watson and Quentin Johnston.
Cole Kmet, TE
If we can’t count on any of the receivers in Chicago under Caleb Williams, how are we supposed to commit to its tight end? During the current four-game losing streak, Cole Kmet has turned 126 routes into just eight low-upside targets, making him an afterthought in all formats.
The Bears tanked Kmet’s slot usage in the loss to the Packers last week, taking away the efficient targets from a profile that already carries very little scoring equity. Kmet is my lowest-ranked TE who is consistently on the field. I’d rather stream Chig Okonkwo or Ja’Tavion Sanders this week (and moving forward) if pushed.