The Chicago Bears will face the Green Bay Packers in Week 18. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bears and Packers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jordan Love, QB
Over his past six games, Jordan Love has had five touchdown passes and zero interceptions against the blitz (previously this season: five touchdowns against five interceptions). What we might be seeing is the maturation of a young quarterback, and Packers backers should be thrilled by this development when it comes to their team’s long-term trajectory.
In the short term, this maturity could raise Love’s floor while potentially lowering his ceiling a touch if he proves hesitant to cut loose the risk/reward passes. Green Bay didn’t need much from him in the Week 11 win over Chicago (17 pass attempts), and that’s the only reason to proceed with caution this weekend.
I fully expect the Packers to come out and try to earn the NFC’s sixth seed in this spot (they need a win and a Commanders loss); while I don’t think they ultimately get there, that level of motivation gives me the green light to rank Love as a lineup lock in all formats.
Caleb Williams, QB
Maybe we set the bar a bit high for Caleb Williams. We saw the pedigree and the situation and assumed that there would be an instant translation to fantasy relevance, something that pretty clearly hasn’t happened, especially when you juxtapose it to other members of this rookie class.
We’ve seen some flashes from Williams this season, despite the disappointing overall production, and that includes moments against these Packers. In Week 11, he funneled 64.5% of his targets to his trio of receivers on his way to completing 23 of 31 passes for 231 yards. He also added 70 yards on the ground, giving us a glimpse of what the future may hold. I’m not betting on him doing similar things in January at Lambeau, but I’m certainly not throwing in the towel on him as a prospect as we begin to turn our attention toward next season.
Video game numbers are great, but when I’m evaluating a rookie QB, I want to see poise. These high-end prospects usually end up in rebuilding situations, and if they can show composure early on, it paves the way for future growth. Williams isn’t there yet, but I’d very much caution against overreacting to his profile.
Rookie season, under pressure:
- Williams: 44.1% complete, 5.5 yards per attempt, and 5.1% TD rate
- Joe Burrow: 37.3% complete, 4.2 yards per attempt, and 2.9% TD rate
Rookie season, when blitzed:
- Williams: 57.6% complete, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 3.5 TD/INT
- Burrow: 61.0% complete, 6.6 yards per attempt, and 1.3 TD/INT
I’m not suggesting that Williams is Windy City Burrow, but Cincinnati saw their top overall pick make a massive jump in Year 2 (getting Ja’Marr Chase certainly helped, but I’d argue that the Bears spent this season getting Williams acclimated with his weapons). But I’m not ruling that out in a division that is going to require scoring points in bunches for years to come.
Year 2 Burrow:
- Pressured: 60.9% complete, 8.6 yards per attempt, and 6.8% TD rate
- Blitzed: 68.8% complete, 10.3 yards per attempt, and 2.5 TD/INT
Josh Jacobs, RB
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Jacobs is active for today's game.
Josh Jacobs has a rushing score in seven straight games, tying Paul Hornung’s franchise record. If the Packers have their way, he will break that record in a big way on Sunday. This game certainly won’t be the featured NFC North battle of the week, but the difference between being the sixth and the seventh seed is significant, so I think we see what we’ve seen from the Packers all season long – a lot of Jacobs early and often.
Through 17 weeks, Jacobs is the only player with 80+ first-quarter carries … he has 102. He racked up 134 yards and a touchdown on 22 touches in the first meeting with the Bears and is coming off of a Week 17 effort in which he gained yardage on a season-best 94.1% of his carries.
Jacobs is a real threat to break the DFS main slate, and you should feel great about having redraft exposure if you still have games to play on that end.
Roschon Johnson, RB | CHI (at GB)
Roschon Johnson is averaging 2.8 yards per carry this season and has been held without a 10-yard rush or a 20-yard touch. This man has done one thing well this season and only one thing …
Johnson’s PPR point distribution, 2024:
- Scored from the one-yard line: 36.6 points
- Scored elsewhere: 33.9 points
If you have a model that predicts how often a team will be tackled on the one-yard line and it’s screaming at you, you’re playing Johnson. Assuming you don’t have that crystal ball, you shouldn’t be interested.
D’Andre Swift, RB
D’Andre Swift has the lead role in this backfield without much competition, but because of the game scripts, he’s reached 15 carries just once in his past seven games. There is no denying that we are in danger of seeing that risk extend through this week with the Packers playing for seeding and the Bears playing for — well, nothing.
Swift had three top-10 finishes in succession earlier this season (Week 4-6), and I’m cautiously optimistic that we can see more spikes in 2025 as Caleb Williams continues to grow.
In Week 11, Swift posted 84 yards against the Packers. He added a rushing touchdown, and that allowed him to post a nice showing — remove the touchdown points and you’re right around 10 PPR points, something that I think makes for a better projection than the 16.4 he put on the board in the first meeting.
Keenan Allen, WR
Keenan Allen’s usage has been all over the place this season, but with 34 targets in his past three games, the opportunity count is at least in our favor. I suspect that the Bears, like the Patriots, will use this week as a high-pressure practice session, willing to take some risks in a game setting to develop their franchise quarterback.
How much of that experimenting will be geared toward Allen is my concern.
Allen is an unrestricted free agent this summer and the elder statesman in this receiver room. DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are likely to be the pieces Caleb Williams is dealing with for the foreseeable future, so why wouldn’t Chicago opt to feature them in a massive way to try to get a snapshot as to what the 2025 season could look like?
Allen saw a 4.3-yard aDOT last week, his second-lowest of the season. If his usage is removed, Moore is the more likely of the two remaining receivers to absorb it. As involved as he has been of late, I’m passing on Allen in Week 18 and have him ranked third of this trio.
DJ Moore, WR
DJ Moore is one of five players with at least seven targets in each of his past seven games played and the list is quite impressive:
- Malik Nabers: 14 Straight
- Ja’Marr Chase: 9
- Davante Adams: 8
- Puka Nacua: 8
- Moore: 7
That’s pretty impressive and if the Bears are treating the season finale as a way to further see where Caleb Williams is comfortable throwing the ball, I think it stands to reason to believe that Moore extends this streak.
When Chicago hosted Green Bay in Week 11, he caught seven passes for 62 yards, a line that has a chance to be replicated this week as the road team tries to play spoiler.
Moore is a PPR Flex for me this week, and if you gave me the opportunity to bet over/under his 2024 totals for 2025, I’d be tempted to take the overs across the board.
Romeo Doubs, WR
Romeo Doubs was Jordan Love’s top read on Sunday (37.9% target share). While I’m not confident that will stick, I am confident that the Packers will be playing to avoid the No. 7 seed this postseason, which should at least have Doubs on your radar.
The hard part about this profile is knowing what to believe. Projecting Green Bay’s target shares week over week is a spin of the roulette wheel, and while I’m encouraged by what we saw last week in Minnesota, my eyebrow is raised that we see a flipped profile like that again.
- Week 17: 8.3 aDOT
- Weeks 12-16: 14.3 aDOT
On one hand, I’m encouraged by Green Bay’s willingness to regress his aDOT and give him a more efficient role. Not only did it pay off in Week 17, but it tells me that the team is confident in Doubs’ ability to win on multiple levels.
Even if you don’t think the shortened route tree sticks, a matchup with a bottom-10 defense against deep passes in terms of passer rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and interception rate is inviting.
I’ve finally moved Doubs ahead of Jayden Reed this week, but I’ve been burned too many times by the Packers’ passing game to tell you that I entered Week 18 with much confidence in handing out target projections. In terms of raw fantasy points, I have Doubs checking in just ahead of Reed and both of them ahead of Tucker Kraft, though few outcomes would surprise me this week and during the postseason.
For playoff-centric leagues, I like the idea of getting the cheapest of those three and taking your chances on swinging variance in your favor during a surprise Packer run to New Orleans.
Rome Odunze, WR
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Odunze is active for today's game
I don’t think “post-hype sleeper” will be an appropriate title for Rome Odunze in 2025, but my evaluation of him hasn’t changed a bit from the preseason. If his ADP falls just because he hasn’t had a Ladd McConkey-type rookie season or isn’t peaking late like Xavier Worthy, I’m going to be overweight on him in redraft situations.
But for Week 18, against a Packers team that is playing for seeding, I don’t think you can play Odunze with much confidence. Yes, he led the Bears in receiving when these teams first squared off (Week 11: 6-65-0 on a 32.3% target share), but when stepping back a touch, this profile isn’t one that I’m betting on in a fantasy championship setting.
The rookie has a 38.9% catch rate over his past three games and has found the end zone in just one of 13 contests. There have been sparks of optimism, and I think he will take on a greater role in 2025 for an offense that I expect to develop, but that’s going to take an offseason worth of work, not a single week.
If you roll out Odunze this week, you’re losing the battle, but I think you’re winning the war by being higher than your competition on him.
Jayden Reed, WR
Jayden Reed hasn’t run 25 routes in a game since Week 9 and has only three end-zone targets on his 2024 ledger. And yet, I can’t quit him.
I know I’ve said it a few times, but why can’t be a souped-up version of Zay Flowers? Marry the Ravens’ WR1 ability to earn targets with his catch rate and YAC ability on his way to being a top-20 option.
Easy game, right?
In theory, I think so, and that is why I might buy back next season. For Week 18, I have him and Romeo Doubs ranked awfully close. Reed checks the matchup box (71.9% of his time is spent in the slot, and the Bears rank 22nd in yards per slot pass against this season), while Doubs’ form is certainly more encouraging.
This spread is trending toward double-digits — and that tracks. The Packers are trying to avoid the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs, and the Bears – well, their season has been done for a while now.
I’m expecting Green Bay to control this game from start to finish, but that could mean more Josh Jacobs than it does putting the game in Jordan Love’s hands. I feel good about no Packer in this passing game, but you could justify playing four pieces. You’re taking on some risk with Reed, but at least it’s a good spot for a team that will be functioning as normal.
Christian Watson, WR
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Watson is active for today's game.
Christian Watson lit up the Bears for 150 yards in Week 11, but doing so on four targets isn’t exactly the most sustainable performance.
The burner is battling a knee injury that he suffered in Week 16, which forced him to miss all of Week 17 (practices included). A compromised version of Watson is something I have no desire to bet my season on, but I will note that his target earning was trending in the right direction before getting hurt (13 targets on 43 routes in Weeks 14-15).
If you want to roll the dice on Watson in a postseason pool, you have a green light for me at cost. However, I’m not sure he plays this week, and even if he does, I’d be actively searching for options on my wire instead (Jalen Tolbert and Parker Washington are options in most spots).
Dontayvion Wicks, WR
Dontayvion Wicks has played over 77% of Green Bay’s snaps in three of his past five games and has been trusted with six red-zone touches over that stretch.
Packers WRs usage, Week 17:
- Romeo Doubs: 84.2% snaps, 11 targets, and 18.5 expected PPR points
- Dontayvion Wicks: 77.2% snaps, five targets, and 8.3 expected PPR points
- Jayden Reed: 70.2% snaps, four targets, and 6.5 expected PPR points
- Bo Melton: 22.8% snaps, four targets, and 6.9 expected PPR points
The trends are moving in the right direction, but we’ve seen this story with Packers’ pass catchers before, and that is why I am hesitant to buy in. He was shut out in Chicago back in Week 11 (one target), a game in which Jordan Love threw just 17 passes.
I fear that we could be looking at another low-volume spot if Green Bay controls this game, landing Wicks outside of my Flex comfort zone. If you’re forced into a streaming spot, I prefer Jalen Tolbert to Wicks and Wicks to Parker Washington to give you an idea of the tier in which we are talking.
Tucker Kraft, TE
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Kraft is active for today's game.
This is going to shock you, but the uncertainty in target hierarchy when it comes to the receivers in Green Bay spills over to the tight end position. Tucker Kraft has proven capable of making plays when given the opportunity.
While there is enough potential in this profile to land him inside my top 10 with the Packers motivated to avoid the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs, there’s no overlooking the risk that comes with a sporadic role:
- Week 14 at Lions: 21.7% on-field target share
- Week 15 at Seahawks: 7.4% on-field target share
- Week 16 vs. Saints: 21.1% on-field target share
- Week 17 at Vikings: 10.3% on-field target share
Kraft (one target) was shut out in Chicago in Week 11, due in large part to Green Bay throwing just 17 passes. I’m not reading too far into that, preferring the matchup as a whole (third-most yards allowed per pass) over a single data point.
Cole Kmet, TE
I like Caleb Williams as much as anyone when it comes to long-term fantasy outlook, yet even I haven’t once considered Cole Kmet when streaming the position.
Asking a rookie QB to support this many pass catchers is simply too much, and it’s become clear that Kmet isn’t in Williams’ trust circle. Last week, the tight end was held without a target on 28 routes and has just 23 yards to show for 123 routes over his past four games.
In Week 11 against the Packers, Kmet gave us three catches for 42 yards, a production level that feels like a ceiling at this point. That’s not worth the low floor that you’re asked to absorb in going this direction.