The PFN Playoff Predictor projects the Detroit Lions to have a 36.9% chance to win the Super Bowl. They also have the best odds on DraftKings at +250 (28.57% implied probability not adjusting for vig). They are tied for the best win percentage in football, boast the highest point margin, and also cover the spread at the highest rate in the league.
The Chicago Bears are a blocked field goal and Hail Mary away from being 6-5 instead of 4-7. Despite the disastrous season, the Bears are still a competitive team with lots of hope and promise moving forward.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Lions -9.5 - Moneyline
Lions (-440); Bears (+340) - Over/Under
47.5 total points - Game Time
12:30 p.m. ET - Location
Ford Field
Bears vs. Lions Preview and Prediction
The Lions have the NFL’s top-ranked defense in EPA (expected points added) per play and the third-ranked offense. Combining offensive and defensive EPA, they rank fourth since 2000, trailing only the 2007 Patriots, 2001 Rams, and 2019 Ravens.
This dominance is even more remarkable when examining how they’ve achieved it. The 2024 Lions rank third since 2000 in covering the spread and lead all teams in margin per game above the spread, according to TruMedia. This team is about as balanced as you can hope for.
Since Dan Campbell joined the Lions in 2021, they lead the league in correct fourth-down decision-making per Ben Baldwin. On top of that, they also rank fourth in EDP (earned drive points) on scripted plays offensively. The coaching from Campbell and Ben Johnson helps bring out the best in the talented roster that Brad Holmes has created.
One must look at the Houston Texans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Arizona Cardinals for ideas on how to stop this offense. Most importantly, you need to run zone defense. All three teams (plus the Indianapolis Colts) ran zone coverage on over 80% of dropbacks. Zone is more viable than man because both Amon Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are absurd in man coverage, shown by their DYAR and other FTN Stats.
QB EPA Man vs Zone pic.twitter.com/tc5Km7xsi8
— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) November 19, 2024
Another thing these defenses have in common are turnovers. If you can force Goff into untimely turnovers (like any other quarterback), you might have a shot at stopping this offense. The Lions can also turn to their No. 2-ranked rushing offense that ranks fifth in yards per rush before contact and 13th in yards per rush after contact, showcasing the skill of their offensive line and elite running back duo.
The Bears’ defense ranks eighth in turnover EPA and run the 10th-most zone coverage in the league. Pairing this with a secondary that ranks eighth in PFF grade, and the Bears have all the makings to hang with the Lions. The one issue that might prevent a Bears masterclass on defense is running the rock.
The Bears rank 21st in defensive rushing EPA and 17th in EPA in expected rush situations. The Bears’ defense also ranks 27th in defensive EDP on scripted plays, which is a very large mismatch against the Lions’ offense. Detroit has ran 52% of their plays in a positive game script situation (second-most) and also rank first in EDP when leading, compared to eighth in EDP when trailing.
Unfortunately for the Bears, they are much more impressive with a lead on offense than trailing (third vs. 27th in EDP). The Lions’ defense ranks seventh in pressure generated, 13th in quick pressure generated, and fifth in blitz rate. Against a Bears offensive line that has struggled to keep Caleb Williams afloat, Williams will need to look for open holes in scrambling to keep the Bears alive.
Overall, there is no such thing as matching up well with Detroit. They are arguably the best team in football and statistically one of the best teams ever. The fact that a 4-7 Chicago Bears team led by a rookie quarterback with an interim offensive coordinator and a head coach on the hot seat are only 9.5-point underdogs is a testament to the idea that they aren’t as bad as the media makes it seem.
With that being said, I will be taking the Lions to cover the spread.
My pick: Lions -9.5 (-110)