The Chicago Bears will travel to take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9. Here are our betting picks and predictions for this matchup from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 44.5)
Katz: Betting on Conner is really a bet on the game script. Conner is a true workhorse. He’s played over 80% of the snaps in the past two weeks. If the Arizona Cardinals don’t fall behind, he should push 20 carries.
Conner has carried the ball at least 18 times in four of their last five games. He even got there in a 42-14 blowout loss to the Commanders in Week 4. Otherwise, though, the common theme is competitive games.
The Cardinals have won three of their last four, and Conner’s volume played a huge role in all three wins. In a blowout loss to the Packers, he only had seven carries.
Is it possible the Chicago Bears storm out to a huge lead that takes Conner out of the game? Sure. It’s football. But the most likely scenario, with the Cardinals as very small home favorites, is a competitive game where the team leans on its most reliable offensive player against a Bears defense that is much more beatable on the ground than through the air.
Pick: James Conner over 16.5 rush attempts
Soppe: Is this spread the same if Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary hit the turf last week?
I’m not so sure. Kyler Murray is 8-13 ATS (38.1%) in his past 21 games as a favorite with an average cover margin of -4.4 points per game. This offense has plenty of talent, but part of what makes them unique is Murray’s dynamic ability, something the Bears just contained last week against Washington.
This is a bet on Chicago’s defense (they are the second-best defense in the league this season and the best when the opponent gets inside their 20-yard line), with the understanding that Caleb Williams has the potential to pull this ticket out of the fire if need be as he continues to develop.
The Cardinals force punts at the lowest rate in the league and allow a score on the majority of opponent drives. I’ll take the points for a single pick, and if you’re in the business of chasing some upside, I have a Williams over 252.5 pass+rush yards with Chicago to win both halves SGP (+650 at DraftKings).
Pick: Bears +1.5
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Chicago Bears
Team: For the first time in the 2000s, the Bears have allowed 21 or fewer points in each of their first seven games of a season.
QB: It’s been a simple story with Caleb Williams – his passer rating is 42.8 points higher when not pressured than when he is this season.
Offense: The Bears didn’t run for even 85 yards in any of their first three games – they’ve cleared 125 rushing yards in all four games since (Week 8 at Washington: season-high 196 rushing yards).
Defense: Bend but don’t break – the Bears haven’t allowed a red zone touchdown in two of the past three weeks (that, of course, isn’t going to help when defending Jayden Daniels Hail Marys).
Fantasy: Is there a running back playing better than D’Andre Swift? Over his past four games, he’s produced 33.4% over expectation, averaging 22.6 PPR points per game in the process.
Betting: Six straight Bear road games have come in under the closing total.
Arizona Cardinals
Team: The Cardinals are seeking their first three-game win streak since starting the 2021 season 7-0.
QB: Kyler Murray posted a 127.2 in-pocket passer rating against the Dolphins last week, his highest since Week 13, 2021.
Offense: The Cardinals beat the Dolphins last week without leading for a single offensive snap. It’s their second game this season in which every offensive snap came from behind and their second win when they were trailing for over 87% of their offensive snaps (Also: Week 5 at the 49ers).
Defense: Arizona has allowed their opponent to pick up at least half of their third downs in five of the past six games (Dolphins in Week 8: 11-of-15, 73.3%).
Fantasy: Marvin Harrison Jr.’s sliding touchdown catch was a work of art and paid the fantasy bills, but be careful – his 19.4% on-field target share was his lowest since his NFL debut. That said, he was in the slot for a season-high 32.1% of his routes, an encouraging sign of this team’s willingness to move him around.
Betting: Overs are 9-4 in Kyler Murray’s career when he starts in a game with a spread of less than three points.