The Baltimore Ravens are technically not even a first-place team. At 6-3, the Ravens are a half-game behind the 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers, who were on bye in Week 9.
Yet, there’s a consensus that the Ravens are as dangerous as any team in the AFC. Their prolific offense, which leads the league at 7.1 yards per play, is a big reason for that.
Below we take a look at how potential award-winning seasons from Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have created one of the most unstoppable offenses in the league.
The MVP Case for Lamar Jackson
After Sunday’s win, Henry spoke on the possibility that he and Jackson would have to battle each other for MVP.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry may have to duke it out for MVP, according to @tracywolfson.
King Henry gave his pick 👀 pic.twitter.com/24ptjTWnX1
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 3, 2024
The quarterback usually has the stronger case. The last 11 MVPs have come from quarterbacks of the top two seeds. Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson was the most recent exception (2012).
Given that Jackson won the MVP in 2023 despite a far-less-prolific statistical season, it’s hard to imagine him not repeating at his current pace.
Jackson leads the NFL with 0.35 EPA per play. It’s the highest mark through a team’s first nine games since 2018 when Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees posted slightly higher marks. Of course, Mahomes won the MVP that season.
PFN’s QB+ metric portrays a similar story of excellence. QB+ takes a variety of situational EPA and success rate metrics into account to create a quarterback grade. Entering Week 9, Jackson led the NFL with an A grade in QB+, and that will only go up after he posted the third-best game of 2024 vs. the Denver Broncos (A+ grade).
It was also Jackson’s fourth career game with at least 15 pass attempts and a perfect passer rating. That surpassed Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Kurt Warner for the most perfect passer rating games in NFL history.
The MVP Case for Derrick Henry
Not to be forgotten, Derrick Henry has been the most automatic offensive weapon in the league this season. The Ravens signed Henry to a modest two-year, $16 million deal in free agency, which has rapidly turned into one of the biggest steals this season.
Henry is already over 1,000 rush yards, with 11 rushing touchdowns to boot. He’s just the eighth player in NFL history to hit 1,000 rush yards and double-digit rushing scores through a team’s first nine games. The rest of the list:
- Shaun Alexander (2005 – won MVP)
- Terrell Davis (1998 – won MVP)
- Emmitt Smith (1995)
- Eric Dickerson (1983)
- O.J. Simpson (1975)
- Jim Taylor (1962 – won MVP)
- Jim Brown (3 times – won MVP in 1958 and 1965)
Those seasons are from a bygone era in which running back MVP seasons were far more common. As highlighted above, five of the previous nine running backs to hit the same benchmarks as Henry went on to win the award.
Henry has scored in all nine games he’s played in for Baltimore. He’s the first player since the 1970 merger to score in each of his first nine games with a franchise.
What Are the Ravens’ Playoff Chances?
PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives Baltimore a whopping 98.7% chance to make the playoffs, despite the fact that the Ravens currently occupy a Wild Card spot. Only the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs have higher playoff odds in the entire NFL as of the late Sunday afternoon games.
The reality is that the underlying numbers show a team far superior to its record. Baltimore has a +64 scoring differential and has led for more time than any team except the Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings.
The Ravens are a half-game behind the 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North, with both meetings still to come in Week 11 (at Pittsburgh) and Week 16 (at Baltimore).
If Baltimore continues to control games in a similar fashion through the second half of the season, the Ravens will likely be favored in any playoff situation outside of perhaps a trip to Arrowhead Stadium.