Lamar Jackson is 22-1 in his career against NFC teams. Many people claim this is a result of NFC teams not getting to play against someone with such a unique skill set often enough to know how to slow him down. Fortunately for NFL bettors, the Baltimore Ravens covered the spread in 52.4% of those games, which is slightly lower than against the AFC. This season, the Ravens are 4-2 after an impressive win against the Washington Commanders.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also 4-2 after taking advantage of the New Orleans Saints’ injuries. The Bucs scored 51 points on the team while forcing several turnovers in Spencer Rattler’s first career start.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Ravens -3.5 - Moneyline
Ravens (-180); Bucs (+150) - Over/Under
49 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday, Oct. 21 - Location
Raymond James Stadium
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Preview and Prediction
Per TruMedia, this matchup features the Ravens’ second-ranked offense in expected points added (EPA) and the Bucs’ seventh-ranked offense. The overwhelming success is about the only thing these two offenses have in common as they attack opponents very differently.
The Ravens’ offense ranks 31st in pass rate over expected, passing the ball 9% less often than they should be based on historical context. The Bucs rank third in that same category, throwing 5.1% more than expected.
In that same respect, the Ravens run personnel packages that feature two running backs (or fullbacks) around 34% of the time, ranking top five in both 21 and 22 personnel. This makes sense considering they have Derrick Henry running behind Jackson.
The Bucs rank fifth in 11 personnel usage and have surprisingly only used three other personnel packages this season. Among those is 00 personnel, meaning they use all wide receivers and no running backs or tight ends. They have the highest EPA in the league on those plays.
The Bucs’ offense is difficult to stop because it features Mike Evans and Chris Godwin who remain top-level wide receivers. The two defenses that were able to succeed against the Bucs were the Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos, both of whom were able to pressure Baker Mayfield on over 30% of his passes and also blitzed on over 40% of his passes.
The only other team to take this aggressive approach was the Commanders. Unfortunately for them, Mayfield mitigated their pressure with quick passes and a time to throw significantly lower than against the Broncos and Lions.
This really shows up when you observe how often teams get quick pressure against the Bucs. The Broncos were able to generate pressure on 20% of plays under 2.5 seconds forcing Mayfield out of rhythm — and the Lions at 14.3% while also getting two sacks.
The Ravens’ defense has been below average this season and doesn’t have the genetic makeup of a team primed to stop the Bucs. This is because they rank 23rd in pressure generated and blitz at the third-lowest rate in the league.
The most concerning thing about the Ravens is that they rank 31st in passes of 20+ yards given up and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards given up. They will need the veterans in the secondary to step up this week against Evans and Godwin.
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Fortunately for the Ravens, the Bucs’ defense doesn’t have the chops to stop them either. The Ravens face a stacked box the third most often in the league and rank first overall in EPA against them.
Stopping a duo of Jackson and Henry is a nearly impossible task when the Ravens’ offensive line plays well. The only two teams to have success against this Ravens offense include a defensive line that had Chris Jones (Kansas City Chiefs) and one that had both Christian Wilkins and Maxx Crosby (Las Vegas Raiders).
While the Bucs have been generally good at rushing the passer, they don’t have the superstars required to contain this offense. With high usage of such heavy personnel, the Bucs will need to lean on their linebackers and defensive line to match the intensity in the run game. The Bucs stack the box at the 11th highest rate on defense and rank 20th in EPA using it.
I expect the Ravens to win this game with both offenses putting up lots of points. The Ravens’ defense is the No. 1 pass funnel in the league, and the Bucs are the No. 5 pass funnel. This along with two unstoppable offenses makes me want to take the over. The implied score of this game is 26.25 to 22.75, which is definitely achievable.
My picks: Ravens ML (-180); Over 49 total points (-112)
