On the surface, this Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins matchup should be one of the easiest Thursday Night Football games for which to make a prediction. However, can the 2-7 Dolphins spring a surprise on the 6-2 Ravens? Or will the previous history between these two continue unimpeded? Let’s take a look at the individual matchups and make a prediction for this game between the Dolphins and Ravens at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Update 11/11/21: ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Jacoby Brissett will get his second straight start as Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa continues to recover from a fracture in the middle finger of his left hand. Tagovailoa will serve as the backup QB.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins predictions | Ravens offense vs. Dolphins defense
The 2021 version of the Ravens’ offense might very well be the most dangerous yet with Lamar Jackson under center. That is because Baltimore has made their offense far closer to balanced than in previous seasons. In 2019 and 2020, the Ravens ranked 32nd in passing attempts — that has risen to 18th in 2021. Through eight games, they have thrown more passes than they have attempted runs.
What is extremely impressive is the efficiency they have managed in both elements. Baltimore’s passing game ranks eighth in net yards per attempt, while the running game ranks third in yards per attempt. Now they face a Dolphins defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in points allowed and has had its troubles against both the run and pass game this season.
Lamar Jackson vs. Dolphins defense
Jackson is having a superb 2021 season, to the point where he is actually performing as well or slightly better than his 2019 MVP campaign. In terms of passing, he is providing more value to the offense than ever, according to Pro Football Network’s Offensive Value Metric.
While his traditional passing numbers are down compared to that MVP year, his Next Gen Stats demonstrate the change in his game. Jackson is playing with more aggression — he is averaging nearly 2 more intended air yards per pass than he did in 2019. In the run game, Jackson is also continuing to succeed, averaging 6.2 yards per attempt and 75 yards per game.
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His ability to attack both aspects of any defense continues to cause defensive coordinators issues. That will be no different for the Dolphins, who lack the playmakers up front to contain Jackson’s skill set running the ball. Getting pressure on Jackson is key to upsetting his passing rhythm, but the Dolphins are one of the worst in the league in pressure rate (21.9%).
Miami’s best asset on defense is their secondary. However, their performance this year has been distinctly average. Opposing quarterbacks rank 15th in passer rating against the Dolphins defense (95.7). A lack of big plays — such as sacks and turnovers — are a major contributing issue to those struggles, and they are going to need big plays against Jackson.
Advantage: Ravens
Ravens skill position players vs. Dolphins secondary and linebackers
The Ravens have had to lean on the skills of Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews once again in 2021. Brown had notable struggles against the Lions in Week 3, but in general, has been a solid option with 682 yards and 6 touchdowns. Andrews continues to be the reliable weapon at tight end. He has 560 yards and 3 touchdowns this season.
Beyond that, things have been tough. Sammy Watkins cannot stay healthy, Rashod Bateman and Nick Boyle have both missed time due to injury, and the Ravens lost their top three running backs before the season. They have had contributions from Devin Duvernay and Devonta Freeman, but it has been a struggle for Baltimore’s skill position options this year.
Facing Byron Jones and Xavien Howard is an intriguing proposition. Both are allowing a completion rate below 60%, but they’ve given up a combined 8 touchdowns when targeted. Howard is a risk-reward player, as he’s allowed 6 touchdowns but picked off 2 passes this season. Jones comes with less risk, but the reward has also been lower in terms of touchdowns and yardage.
Miami’s safety pairing is a concern. Brandon Jones is allowing an 89.5% completion rate and 9.5 yards per target. Jevon Holland has an interception and is allowing just a 73.3% completion rate, but he is giving up 12.7 yards per target and has allowed 3 touchdowns. Given that Andrews is a key weapon for the Ravens, the Dolphins must figure out how to cover him.
Advantage: Ravens (marginally)
Ravens offensive line vs. Dolphins defensive front
When you look at the statistics and watch the film, the Ravens’ offensive line has been hard to judge. The overall numbers would suggest they are doing a good job of run blocking. However, when you dig deeper, it is clear there are concerns. Jackson’s 6.2 yards per carry hides a lot of issues on the rushing offense, and Baltimore’s backfield success is buoyed by one or two big runs.
It is similarly hard to judge this line’s pass blocking because of the situation. With a lack of clear-cut receiving weapons and a QB who makes plays with his legs, the front five has been given a tough assignment. Baltimore gives up the sixth-highest sack rate in the NFL (8%), but that figure is somewhat unfair to them as a unit. They have struggled with the loss of Ronnie Stanley to injury and the departure of Orlando Brown Jr. But this line is neither as good nor as bad as the headline numbers suggest. Their true value lies somewhere around the league average.
The Dolphins’ defensive line is not good enough to capitalize on any weakness in this Ravens offensive group. They are league average defending the run and allowed Josh Allen to run for 55 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries in Week 8. Jackson and his supporting cast should be able to move the ball on the ground in this game.
Pressure is also a concern, as we already highlighted. The Dolphins’ pressure rate is low, but their 5.7% hurry rate is even worse (second-worst in the league). While their QB knockdown rate is among the best in the league, they are simply arriving too late, leading to the fourth-worst sack rate in the NFL. This matchup is very much a wash, but the X-factor of Jackson remains a major problem for Miami.
Advantage: Push
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins predictions | Dolphins offense vs. Ravens defense
It has been a really odd year for the Dolphins’ offense, in large part because of the fluctuation at their QB position. Tua Tagovailoa has started five games, while Jacoby Brissett has started four contests and taken the majority of snaps in five.
Consistency has been the issue. Miami has only managed 20 points twice this season, while they have scored 17 points on four occasions. Their average of 17.2 points per game is the fifth-lowest number in the league this season. Let’s take a look at how their offense matches up with the Ravens’ defense.
Dolphins QB vs. Ravens defense
With Tua questionable for Thursday, we have little clarity over what will happen when the Dolphins take the field against the Ravens. Tua has flashed in moments and made some good plays. Unfortunately, he has also been inconsistent and has thrown some terrible interceptions.
Brissett has been less of a playmaker under center but has also made fewer mistakes than his younger counterpart. With Brissett, the Dolphins are less likely to cost themselves the game on offense — but he is also less likely to go out and win it. The ceiling is higher with Tua under center, but the floor is higher with Brissett.
The Ravens defense has been largely effective this season. They rank among the top-10 teams in pass completion rate allowed (63.1%). However, they have given up an average of 8 yards per attempt, which is the seventh-highest in the league.
With an interception rate marginally below average and a touchdown percentage that is basically league average, the Ravens are essentially a middle-of-the-pack defense. If Tua is under center, he could have success against this group. However, the Ravens should be able to maintain a Brissett-led offense.
Advantage: Ravens (marginally)
Dolphins skill position players vs. Ravens secondary and linebackers
The situation with the Dolphins’ skill position options is mixed. The absence of DeVante Parker means they will need Preston Williams to provide a deep threat. Jaylen Waddle is playing well with 56 receptions on 78 targets, but he hasn’t been used as a deep threat (just 8.9 yards per reception).
The utilization of Mike Gesicki and Myles Gaskin in the passing game has been key this year. Gesicki is averaging 12 yards per reception and is catching a touch under 70% of his targets. Gaskin has been a little more hit or miss with his performances. He struggled at times to hold onto the ball in the Dolphins’ London game, but he’s generally been a solid pass catcher this season.
Miami’s receivers could have their work cut out against a very good Ravens CB duo. Marlon Humphrey is allowing just a 51.8% completion rate on 56 targets, while Anthony Averett has given up a 57.6% completion rate on 66 targets. However, Humphrey is susceptible to giving up big plays and touchdowns. Receivers are averaging 17.1 yards per reception and have scored 5 times when matched up with him.
It will be interesting to see if the Dolphins attack the Ravens down the middle of the field. Patrick Queen has allowed 17 receptions on 21 targets, while safety Brandon Stephens has given up 15 completions, 12.1 yards per target, and 2 touchdowns. Miami could have success down the seam with Gesicki and Gaskin.
Advantage: Push
Dolphins offensive line vs. Ravens defensive front
It has been clear to see just how poor the Dolphins’ offensive line is in virtually every game. They are getting little push in the run game, and their pass protection has been abysmal at times.
Miami’s running backs are not the highest quality group in the league, but they are better than 3.5 yards per attempt. The group is simply being given very little help by the line in front of them.
The Ravens’ defensive front has by no means been dominant, but in this matchup, they do not need to be. They are league average against the run and have mixed results rushing the passer. In terms of pressure rate, they are the third-best in the league at 27.8%. Baltimore is marginally above average when it comes to their hurry rate, but among the worst in the league in terms of sack rate.
They should be able to beat up on this Dolphins OL, but this unit needs to see improvement heading into the second half of the season.
Advantage: Ravens (marginally)
Ravens at Dolphins betting line and game prediction
Regardless of what ends up happening with the QB position for the Dolphins, it’s hard to see them winning this game. Even with Tua under center, they will need a perfect performance across the board to come away with a victory.
Tua, as opposed to Brissett, would raise the ceiling that this offense can achieve. With Tua under center, it feels like there is a chance the Dolphins can get to 23-27 points. With Brissett, that high-water mark sits closer to the 17-23 mark.
The question, then, is whether the Dolphins can hold the Ravens to somewhere around that 20-25 point range. That seems unlikely, so it is hard to see the Dolphins winning this matchup. With Tua, they have a reasonable chance to cover, but with Brissett, those odds decrease.
Ravens vs. Dolphins prediction: Ravens 30, Dolphins 20