The Buffalo Bills are a 13-win team without a single first-team all-pro from this season. This is a testament to how well Josh Allen has led this team. They are also the only home team in the Divisional Round to be an underdog in the four matchups. This matchup will have a whole lot of bulletin board material for added motivation.
Lamar Jackson looks like he won his third MVP (second in a row) after being voted first-team all-pro this season. The Baltimore Ravens defense started out shaky this season but has bounced back and is playing its best ball lately. This team has everything it needs for a Super Bowl run.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Ravens -1.5 - Moneyline
Ravens (-118); Bills (-102) - Over/Under
51.5 total points - Game Time
6:30 p.m ET - Location
Highmark Stadium
Ravens vs. Bills Preview and Prediction
In the first matchup between these two teams, the Bills did not play up to their standards. The Ravens were able to run all over them, resulting in a 35-10 blowout. Derrick Henry had 24 runs for 199 yards and a touchdown, while Jackson added 6 runs for 54 yards and a score.
According to TruMedia, the Bills’ defense ranks 19th in opponent yards per rush but 10th in defensive rushing success rate and third in defensive rush EPA (expected points added). Their overall success against the run is hampered by their tendency to give up explosive plays. They allow 3.6 runs of 10 or more yards a game this season, which is good for 24th.
In the game against Baltimore, they allowed six runs of 10+, three of 20+, and even one of 50+. In order to win this battle, they are either going to need to fix that or score some points. While I don’t think they will be as bad as they were earlier this season, I do believe they will need to score points because no one can stop this Baltimore ground game.
In fact, only four games this season saw Baltimore rank below average in rushing EPA. In the game against the New York Giants, they still managed 5.5 yards per carry and 170 yards on the ground, but their efficiency dropped because it was a blowout, and they were running the clock out.
In Week 8, against the Cleveland Browns, they spent 0% of their plays in a positive game script situation (above 70% win probability) and 18.18% of their plays in a negative situation (below 30%). In week 10, against the Cincinnati Bengals, it was 12.2% in the positive and 34.15% in the negative.
That is the key to stopping the Ravens. Score enough points early to keep them from being able to control the time of possession through running the football. Derrick Henry ranks 40th of 43 running backs with over 300 snaps in number of routes ran on third down. If you include all 120 running backs to have run a route this season, he ranks 73rd, while Justice Hill ranks 14th.
Buffalo’s offense ranks third in EPA on scripted drives and second in EPA with a lead this season. In the original matchup, it was too late for Buffalo to win because they started off so poorly. The first three drives of the game resulted in a touchdown for Baltimore, while Buffalo had two punts with a field goal sandwiched between them.
The ironic thing about the letdown from the Buffalo offense in the first matchup is that Baltimore didn’t do anything spectacular or specific to make it happen. The Bills just didn’t execute, failed to gain a yard on third and one in both punting drives, and the coaches weren’t aggressive enough to go for it.
Fortunately for the Bills, Allen’s playing at his best, and the offensive line’s playing at their best should prevent it from happening again. The offensive line has been particularly healthy this season, and that continuity is huge down the stretch. Even with Baltimore’s defense playing better, the Bills should play much better offensively.
Overall, it’s gonna come down to those close moments. High-leverage, clutch situations where everything is a dog fight, and you just need to find a way to win. Other than Patrick Mahomes, there is no one else I’d rather have than Josh Allen in those situations. You can easily go the route of signature playoff moments and recall how clutch Allen has been. I will rely on stats because it’s a less refutable (dare say irrefutable) way to prove it.
Among 30 quarterbacks since 2000 with over 200 playoff passing attempts, Lamar Jackson ranks last in EPA per dropback on plays where it is a one-score game. Allen ranks 15th and fourth among active quarterbacks.
My pick: Bills ML (-102)
