The Baltimore Ravens were among the NFL’s run-heaviest teams in 2022. Only two clubs — the Bears and Falcons — ran the ball at a higher clip than the Ravens’ 50.18% rate. J.K. Dobbins, still recovering from a 2021 torn ACL, was in and out of Baltimore’s lineup throughout the season, but he dominated down the stretch run. By failing to add any competition behind him, the Ravens are demonstrating their faith in Dobbins heading into next season.
J.K. Dobbins Entering a Make-or-Break Year for the Baltimore Ravens
After entering the league as a second-round pick in 2020, Dobbins immediately became a contributor for the Ravens, but he wasn’t the club’s default RB1. Lamar Jackson led Baltimore in rushing attempts and yardage, while Gus Edwards handled 10 more carries than Dobbins.
But Dobbins was highly effective with the touches he received. The Ohio State alum scored nine touchdowns and ranked first among all running backs with 6.0 yards per carry. While he wasn’t much of a factor in the receiving game (just 18 receptions on 24 targets), Dobbins established himself as the go-to RB in the Ravens’ backfield.
Then, disaster struck. Dobbins tore his ACL and damaged other knee ligaments during the 2021 preseason, and he wasn’t healthy enough to begin the 2022 campaign on time. After being cleared for Week 3, Dobbins handled 35 carries over four weeks before suffering another knee injury.
Another knee surgery put Dobbins on the sidelines until Week 14, but he became a focal point of Baltimore’s offense upon his return. From Weeks 14-17, Dobbins took 57 attempts for 397 yards, ranking first in rushing yards and yards per carry over that stretch.
Despite his limited season-long touches, Dobbins remained as elusive and electric as ever. He finished second in the NFL in evaded tackles per touch, while PFF charted him with nine runs of 15+ yards. Dobbins ranked sixth in breakaway rate, the percentage of his rushing attempts that went for at least 15 yards.
“J.K. finished strong,” Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said in March. “Really, really impressed with his passion, his work ethic, the way he battled back from a very, very serious knee injury.
“It was very impressive to me to see how he really kind of matured over the course of the season. He came back from that second procedure, surgery that he had, and he started to really look like the old J.K., which is extremely exciting for the organization. We fully expect J.K. to have a great year this year.”
At the end of the year, Dobbins expressed frustration after he wasn’t on the field for a critical late-game drive in the Ravens’ eventual Wild Card loss to the Bengals.
“I’m a guy that feels that if I’m on the field all the time, I can help this team win,” Dobbins said. “I wasn’t. It’s the playoffs. Why am I not out there? I should be the guy. I’m tired of holding back.”
Dobbins may get that opportunity to be the Ravens’ full-time lead back in 2023, and he’ll need to make the most of it as he approaches free agency next offseason. Judging by Baltimore’s offseason moves, the club believes Dobbins can make the leap.
The Ravens Didn’t Add Any Competition Behind Dobbins
The Ravens were preoccupied with retaining Jackson and were one of the NFL’s quietest teams during the free agent period, but they could have added another back had they wanted to.
The RB market wasn’t exactly thriving this offseason. Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, and Alexander Mattison all signed for $4 million or less. Devin Singletary and D’Onta Foreman got less than $3 million from the Texans and Bears, respectively. Damien Harris landed a deal near the league minimum from the Bills.
Baltimore could have pursued an extra runner, but they’ll instead bring back Dobbins, Edwards (who accepted a pay cut), and third-stringer Justice Hill in 2023. The Ravens also signed undrafted free agents Keaton Mitchell (East Carolina) and Owen Wright (Monmouth), but those rookies are squarely behind the Ravens’ veteran trifecta.
DeCosta and Co.’s decision to stand pat at running back is a testament to their belief in Dobbins, his injury recovery, and his sizzling late-season stretch. Whether Dobbins can maintain his outstanding efficiency is an open question, but the Ravens appear ready to find the answer.
Baltimore may pass the ball at a higher rate in 2023 now that Todd Monken has replaced Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. If that happens, Dobbins could have the chance to become a more effective pass catcher, further bolstering his value in advance of free agency.
Running backs rarely get paid in the NFL unless they can play on all three downs. But even if Dobbins settles in as a home-run threat with lacking receiving skills, his efficiency could propel him to a Miles Sanders-esque $6+ million per year contract in free agency, which would represent a major windfall for a player who will have earned just $5.7 million by the time his rookie deal concludes.
