The Baltimore Ravens‘ fantasy outlook for Week 16 revolves around their new-look ground game, while the San Francisco 49ers‘ preview dives into the fantasy football value of their MVP front-runner and supporting cast.
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers
- Spread: 49ers -5.5
- Total: 46
- Ravens implied points: 20.3
- 49ers implied points: 25.8
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson: Fantasy managers have a right to be annoyed with how this season has played out for Jackson. He is pulling the strings for a top-five offense in yards per play, points per play, and points per game — yet through 15 weeks, he only has five finishes better than fantasy’s ninth-best QB.
His completion percentage has fallen off a cliff since the Mark Andrews injury (under 60% complete in all three of those games after completing 69.5% of his passes prior) and without extreme efficiency, the production is going to continue to underwhelm.
That said, he has 34 carries over his past three games, and that allows us to remain hopeful.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
You’re not pivoting off of Jackson at this point in the season. We did see him produce big numbers in his only other road game this season, which came against an elite defense — Week 4 at CLE: 15 of 19 for 186 yards and two scores to go along with 27 rushing yards and another two touchdowns — a testament to how unique his skill set is.
Jackson has access to a ceiling that few do, and that should keep him in fantasy lineups, regardless of the opposition.
Brock Purdy: I’ll leave the raw talent scouting of Purdy to our NFL team — I’m in the production business, and there is no denying what the MVP frontrunner is doing.
- 10 TD passes over the past three weeks
- Top-six finisher in five of six weeks following the bye
- 40+ yard completion in six of his past seven games
Despite not having thrown more than 31 passes in a game since September, Purdy gets it done almost every week. Talking heads will argue as to why he is succeeding (9.9 yards per pass; no player has reached 10.0 since the much-discussed 1954 season of Norm Van Brocklin), but we are well past the point of calling his weekly production an aberration.
The Ravens’ defense is coming off of an elite performance (4.5 yards per play and zero points if you remove a single coverage breakdown) and is capable of slowing Purdy to some degree, but not enough to knock him outside of my top 10. Not even close.
Running Backs
Keaton Mitchell: The rookie out of East Carolina was doing what we’ve come to expect from him since Halloween (11 touches for 88 yards), but a knee injury ended both his game and his season.
His name is one to keep track of for next season. J.K. Dobbins is set to become an unrestricted free agent, and Mitchell’s splash-play ability (8.7 yards per touch) seemed to very much complement what Jackson does well as the leader of this Todd Monken offense.
You can cut ties with him in redraft formats — we were robbed late Sunday night of a potential waiver wire league winner.
Gus Edwards: He is set to assume the lead duty in this potent offense due to the Mitchell injury, and with 11 scores this season, he should be viewed as a low-end RB2 this week, even in a difficult matchup.
The touchdown equity isn’t going anywhere, though he needs to find paydirt to matter due to his lack of versatility (29 catches in 66 career games) and recent struggles with efficiency (under 3.5 yards per carry over his past five games).
2023 average finish when he scores: RB12
2023 average finish when he doesn’t score: RB43
Justice Hill: He should get his fair share of snaps with Mitchell sidelined, but without a definitive role in an offense that includes a touchdown savant in Edwards and an explosive runner in Jackson, Hill’s path to the Flex conversation remains cloudy.
Christian McCaffrey: Fantasy’s top asset is pretty darn good when the defense commits to guarding him — he’s really good when the defense fails to cover him!
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
CMC lit up the Cardinals for 187 yards and three scores, giving him 364 yards and seven scores against Arizona this season. Sadly, you’re not allowed to play the same opponent three times in a single regular season, so I can’t promise you this sort of slate-breaking effort from McCaffrey this week in a much more difficult matchup.
There’s not much to say here; McCaffrey is inevitable. Following the conclusion of this fantasy season, I’ll be piecing together a 2024 fantasy mock draft, and I anticipate his name being atop that draft board.
Wide Receivers
Zay Flowers: After scoring in consecutive games, Flowers gave us just seven yards against the Jaguars on his two targets. The rookie has shown flashes of talent that make him an interesting dynasty piece, but counting on him right now is more risk than I’m willing to absorb.
Flowers doesn’t have a catch gaining more than 21 yards in six of his past seven games, and the volume angle is weak, with this team ranking bottom-five in pass attempts for the second consecutive season. Flowers is sitting just outside of my top 30 for the week and carries a floor that is more damning than his upside is rewarding.
Odell Beckham Jr.: To call Beckham’s production inconsistent during this win streak would be a drastic misuse of the word.
- Week 11 vs. CIN: 116 yards on seven targets
- Week 12 at LAC: 34 yards on five targets
- Week 14 vs. LAR: 97 yards on 10 targets
- Week 15 at JAX: 14 yards on three targets
I find it unlikely that we get the consistency for which we yearn, and this spot profiles as another potential stumbling block (sixth-best per-attempt pass defense).
The injury to Mitchell could result in a slightly pass-heavier scheme, but because Jackson has failed to complete 20 passes in four of his past five games, there’s not enough volume in this offense to land OBJ inside of my top 30.
I’d rather play secondary receivers in Vegas, Dallas, or Tampa Bay this week with my season on the line.
Deebo Samuel: With eight of his 11 touchdowns this season coming over the past month, Samuel is looking to put “fantasy league-winner” on his resume as the 49ers chase a goal that some would argue is more important.
I, of course, am not a part of that group that prioritizes a Super Bowl over a magical late-season run that brings me fantasy glory. To do that, he’s going to have to penetrate the second-best red-zone defense in the league.
During this month-long scoring binge, five of Samuel’s seven scores have come inside the 20. My concern is natural regression, something that bothers the projection part of my brain but is nothing you realistically need to act on.
- 2023: TD on 8.7% of his targets
- 2019-22: TD on 5.4% of his targets
Samuel remains a top-10 player for me, given how he is being used and where on the field he is getting his opportunities.
Brandon Aiyuk: That hot streak by Samuel has come at the expense of George Kittle and Aiyuk. Yes, he had 126 yards against the Seahawks in the Week 12 win, but that’s his only finish inside the top 20 of receivers over the past month after posting an average finish of WR14 in his three games beforehand.
Sadly, you have to take the good with the bad regarding pass catchers in this offense. On the bright side, complete air balls like last week’s finish outside of the top 50 are rare — Aiyuk has been no worse than WR37 in his last 10 games.
This time of year, if I’m digesting content, I want the bullish case for my players, and I assume you’re the same! The Ravens have had some success in limiting alpha receivers of late (Chase and Ridley turned 19 targets into just 51 yards when facing Baltimore). If that’s the case and they label the red-hot Samuel as the featured target, Aiyuk could excel.
In the last two games in which Samuel saw fewer than six targets and was held under 100 yards, Aiyuk, per the Week 16 Cheat Sheet, gave us 37.1 half-PPR points with unreal efficiency (4.1 points per target). I’m not projecting that, but he remains a locked-in WR2 with the potential to be the most productive pass catcher on this team in any given week.
Tight Ends
Isaiah Likely: Can we stop it now? He was left on far too many waiver wires coming out of the Week 13 bye, and in the two games since, all he has done is reward those who made the addition with 10 catches on 13 targets for 153 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Whether it’s bailing Jackson out in times of stress or creative usage to leverage his size-speed combination, Likely is a certified top-10 tight end that you can feel good about playing.
MORE: Fantasy TE Start/Sit Week 16 — How Should You Handle Isaiah Likely?
Of course, this matchup isn’t great, and San Francisco’s low blitz rate could allow them to bracket Likely in a way that more aggressive defenses like the Rams and Jaguars have not done over the past two weeks.
There’s a floor concern with every TE in the sport, but Likely’s unique skill set and glove-like fit into this offensive scheme puts him in a good spot to be trusted at this critical juncture of your fantasy season.
George Kittle: I wish I could calm your nerves and tell you that the 49ers scoring 30 points and Kittle under-delivering was some sort of anomaly, but the fact of the matter is that games like this happen as often as the explosive performances — how lucky do you feel?
Last week in Arizona was the fifth time this season in which San Francisco scored 30 points, and their star tight end gave us under 55 receiving yards. Of course, he has also hit 15 points on five occasions, weeks in which he gave you a massive edge over the opposition.
I don’t love this matchup, and that is why Kittle sits at TE8 in my Week 16 rankings, but at least he did run a route on 89.7% of Purdy’s dropbacks last week. Kittle’s name is on the short list of players likely to single-handedly determine the outcome of your semifinal matchup — for better or worse.
Should You Start Brock Purdy or Tua Tagovailoa?
Purdy holds the edge in accuracy, the health of playmakers, and consistency. The concern here is a tough matchup, but it’s not as if Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has an easy matchup.
Purdy’s understanding of this Kyle Shanahan offense is elite, and that elevates his floor to a level that Tagovailoa has yet to show us. I’ve been impressed with Tagovalioa’s overall level of play this season, but the fantasy production hasn’t always lined up. That has him floating around QB10 in my ranks this week, while Purdy is in the top-five conversation.
Should You Start Gus Edwards or De’Von Achane?
Give me Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane here. It’s pretty clear that the Dolphins view RB Raheem Mostert as their lead back, but there’s enough yardage equity on this offense to support a pair of explosive backs.
Edwards figures to assume the lead role in Baltimore while Keaton Mitchell is sidelined, and while the volume should be there, are we sure he does much with it? He has been a touchdown-reliant fantasy option all season, and that has me fading him against the defense that allows the fewest red-zone trips in the league.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
