The Baltimore Ravens saw things fall reasonably nicely for them ahead of the Week 12 Sunday Night Football game, as they are guaranteed to lead the division regardless of the outcome. With the Ravens sitting at 8-3 ahead of Sunday Night Football, they can take a two-game lead into the season’s final six weeks.
With the assistance of PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s take a look at how the rest of the Ravens’ season could play out in terms of clinching a playoff spot and the division.
When Can the Baltimore Ravens Clinch a Playoff Spot?
The AFC is in absolute chaos in 2023, and it has made things tricky for teams looking to clinch a playoff spot. Between the first and 11th seeds are just three games, which means that for the most part, any of those 11 can still potentially make it, and any one of them could yet miss out. At 8-3, the Ravens will feel confident heading into SNF, but there is still a huge element of jeopardy.
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A win for the Ravens would take them to 9-3 and atop the AFC standings heading into their bye week. The Ravens would not need to rely on any NFL playoff tiebreakers as things stand, with no other AFC team having won nine games this season. That would also guarantee the Ravens a minimum two-game lead over the eighth seed, regardless of results next week.
That would mean the Ravens would guarantee a playoff spot by winning four of their final five games. That is naturally easier said than done, but it also means that the Ravens just have to win one more game than each of those teams currently on five losses and two more than the teams on six losses to ensure they have a playoff spot.
The earliest the Ravens could clinch a playoff spot is Week 15 if things fall their way. A more realistic path to clinching comes in Weeks 16 or 17. However, with the other three AFC North teams all sitting on five or more wins and two of them looming on seven wins, they will want to do a lot more than just the bare minimum of clinching a playoff spot.
Clinching the division ensures that Baltimore will play at home for at least their first NFL playoff game. It also keeps them in with a chance of the No. 1 seed, which would give them that all-important first-round bye.
How Can the Ravens Clinch the AFC North?
The Ravens enter their Week 12 game with a one-game lead over the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. A loss to the Chargers will give those teams a chance to draw level next week when the Ravens are on a bye. However, a win will ensure the Ravens stay one game ahead and give them a chance to clinch in Week 17 or 18 if they can win out.
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The Ravens still have a Week 18 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which could have a huge impact. The Ravens have split with the Browns and beat the Steelers back in Week 5. Therefore, a loss in Week 18 could leave things fascinatingly poised in terms of divisional tiebreakers. That would leave the Ravens at 3-3 within the division, and the Steelers would have four wins.
For the Ravens, that would be incredibly bad news, especially if the Browns also beat the Bengals in Week 18, as both Cleveland and Pittsburgh would have better divisional records. If all three AFC North teams continue to win out or match each other loss for loss the rest of the way, this division could go down to Week 18 with all three teams still in play for the title.
Does Baltimore Control Its Destiny?
When it comes to the playoffs and the division, yes, the Ravens control their own destiny. However, that is not the case for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Ravens already have three losses in the conference entering Week 12, which is the worst of the current division leaders. They face both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins down the stretch, so against those two, they control their own destiny.
The problem is the Kansas City Chiefs, who the Ravens do not face this year. If Kansas City and Baltimore both win out, the Chiefs will clinch the No. 1 seed based on their superior conference record. The Ravens have already lost three games in the conference, while the Chiefs have lost just one. Therefore, the Ravens would need the Chiefs to lose two conference games to even match them in that tiebreaker.
The simplest path to the No. 1 seed for the Ravens is to win out, eliminating their divisional rivals, the Dolphins, and the Jaguars. Then they need the Chiefs to lose one game, so they have a worse win percentage. There are other permutations, but things start to get very complicated very quickly when you head down that rabbit hole.
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