Almost everything went right for the Baltimore Ravens in Week 15. Lamar Jackson and Co. pulled out an overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, bringing the club’s record to 10-3. Plus, the other three contenders for the AFC’s No. 1 seed all lost last week, giving the Ravens a clear edge atop the conference standings.
But with four weeks remaining in the regular season, Baltimore still has plenty to accomplish. Can the Ravens clinch the AFC North on Sunday, and where does the race for a first-round playoff bye stand? Let’s find out below.
Ravens Playoff Scenarios | Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 17 at 10 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After the Sunday slate in Week 15, the Ravens remain the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Dolphins (10-4) defeated Jets (5-9)
Chiefs (9-5) defeated Patriots (3-11)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Bills (8-6) defeated Cowboys (10-4)
Sunday Night Football Game Update
Ravens (11-3) defeated Jaguars (8-6)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Ravens entering Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 15?
While the Ravens haven’t yet clinched a playoff berth, there’s almost no chance they won’t enter the dance after this season.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives Baltimore a 99.5% chance of claiming a postseason spot. That’s the fourth-highest mark in the league, behind the San Francisco 49ers (who have secured a playoff ticket), Dallas Cowboys, and Philadelphia Eagles.
Here’s how secure the Ravens’ postseason berth is: Even if Baltimore were to lose out, they’d still finish with a winning record of 10-7. And its postseason odds would still sit at roughly 85%.
The Ravens are highly unlikely to lose their final four games. But Baltimore does have the most difficult remaining schedule in the NFL:
- Week 15: at JAX
- Week 16: at SF
- Week 17: vs. MIA
- Week 18: vs. PIT
The 49ers and Dolphins are two of the league’s best teams, while the Jacksonville Jaguars are no slouch. Meanwhile, divisional games against the Pittsburgh Steelers are always challenging.
The Ravens will have the chance to end all that conversation and clinch at least a Wild Card entry in Week 15. If Baltimore beats Jacksonville, here’s what else it would need to have happen:
- BUF loss/tie OR
- DEN loss/tie
There are also many permutations in which the Ravens could secure a playoff berth via a tie with the Jaguars or a Steelers tie with the Colts.
Can the Ravens Clinch the AFC North This Week?
The Ravens will have to wait before securing the AFC North title. The Cleveland Browns moved to 8-5 by taking down Jacksonville on Sunday, so they’re still only two games behind Baltimore with four weeks remaining.
Even if the Ravens win this week and the Browns lose, the Ravens would still only have a three-game lead with three weeks remaining in the regular season.
MORE: Baltimore Ravens Depth Chart
Still, John Harbaugh’s club is the overwhelming favorite to walk away with the AFC North trophy. FPI gives the Ravens a 92% chance of winning the division entering Week 15.
In a best-case scenario where Baltimore wins and Cleveland falls, the Ravens’ AFC North odds will jump to 99%. On the flip side, if the Ravens lose and the Browns win, Baltimore’s chance of winning the division will drop to roughly 80%.
Is Baltimore the Favorite for the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
The Jaguars have largely fallen out of the race for the AFC’s top seed, but the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins are somewhat still in the mix. But given that the Chiefs and the Dolphins lost in Week 15, the Ravens are now the obvious favorite to land the AFC’s playoff bye.
At 10-3, Baltimore holds a one-game lead over Miami and a two-game lead over Kansas City and Jacksonville. Because the Ravens still have to face the Dolphins and Jaguars, there are still too many permutations by which the club could fall out of the top slot.
What’s Baltimore’s ideal scenario this week? The Ravens’ odds of grabbing a playoff bye are roughly 64% entering this weekend’s action. But if they beat the Jaguars, the Chiefs lose to the New England Patriots, and the Dolphins fall to the New York Jets, the Ravens’ chances will increase to roughly 90%.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!