Back-to-back wins have left the Baltimore Ravens at 9-3 and sitting atop the AFC North heading into their Week 14 game against the Los Angeles Rams. With five weeks remaining in the regular season, Lamar Jackson’s club has plenty to accomplish before the playoffs.
Can Baltimore clinch the AFC North on Sunday? Where do they stand in the race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed? Let’s run through the Ravens’ playoff chances and scenarios for this week.
Week 14 Update
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
Browns (8-5) defeated Jaguars (8-5)
Bengals (7-5) defeated Colts (6-6)
Bills (7-6) defeat Chiefs (8-5)
What Are the Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 14?
There’s almost no chance the Ravens won’t make the postseason in 2023. As one of the NFL’s four nine-win teams, they’re well on their way to the dance.
MORE: Baltimore Ravens Depth Chart
As of Sunday, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives Baltimore a 98.9% chance of claiming a playoff spot. That’s the fifth-highest mark in the league, behind the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, and Miami Dolphins.
Here’s how secure the Ravens’ postseason berth is: Even if Baltimore were to lose out, they’d still finish with a winning record of 9-8. And its postseason odds would still sit at roughly one in four.
The Ravens are highly unlikely to lose their final five games. But Baltimore does have the most difficult remaining schedule in the NFL:
- Week 14: vs. LAR
- Week 15: at JAX
- Week 16: at SF
- Week 17: vs. MIA
- Week 18: vs. PIT
The 49ers and Dolphins are two of the league’s best teams, while the Jacksonville Jaguars are nearly there, assuming Trevor Lawrence (ankle) can play in Week 15. The Rams are still competing for an NFC Wild Card entry, while divisional games against the Pittsburgh Steelers are always challenging.
Can the Ravens Clinch the AFC North This Week?
The Ravens will have to wait before securing the AFC North title.
Pittsburgh’s loss on Thursday night helped, as Baltimore now holds a 2.5-game lead over the 7-6 Steelers. The Cleveland Browns, facing the Jaguars on Sunday, are still 7-5 and only two games back of the Ravens.
Even if Baltimore wins this week and the Browns lose, the Ravens would still only have a three-game lead with four weeks remaining in the regular season.
Still, John Harbaugh’s club is the overwhelming favorite to walk away with the AFC North trophy. FPI gives the Ravens an 89.1% chance of winning the division entering Week 14.
In a best-case scenario where Baltimore wins and Cleveland falls, the Ravens’ AFC North odds will jump to 97%. On the flip side, if the Ravens lose and the Browns win, Baltimore’s chance of winning the division will drop to three in four.
Can Baltimore Still Earn the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
The race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed — and a first-round playoff bye — looks to be down to three contenders: the Ravens, Dolphins, and Chiefs. The Jaguars are still technically contending for the first conference slot, but they’re a game behind the AFC’s other elite clubs and could be without Lawrence for a week or two.
MORE: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings
Miami has the clear edge heading into Week 14, with a 37% shot at earning the top seed. Baltimore is second at 29%, while Kansas City is at 25%.
With five weeks remaining and three teams battling for the postseason bye, there are too many theoretical No. 1 seed permutations to count. But consider a few data points.
First, the Dolphins and Chiefs have much easier schedules to close the season than the Ravens, who have the aforementioned most difficult slate in the NFL. Miami is at No. 12, while KC is down at No. 29.
In an ideal Baltimore scenario (Ravens win, Dolphins and Chiefs lose), its odds of grabbing the top seed would increase to better than 50%. Worst-case scenario? The Ravens’ chances drop to just 10% following their loss and win by Miami and KC.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!