The Baltimore Ravens‘ outlook evaluates the fantasy football value of Odell Beckham, while the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ fantasy preview details how far down the ranks Trevor Lawrence should settle in this difficult matchup.
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: Ravens -3.5
- Total: 43.5
- Ravens implied points: 23.5
- Jaguars implied points: 20
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson: After finishing no better than QB14 in four of his last five games, Jackson turned on the fantasy charm last week against the Rams with a QB1 finish (316 passing yards with three touchdowns, not to mention 70 rushing yards).
The concern with Jackson is obvious – Baltimore doesn’t need him to produce video game numbers for them to succeed at a high level. That doesn’t mean he can’t.
I expect the game plan to be similar this week against a Jags defense that allows a league-high 74.2% of opponent yards to come through the air. Any week where I can project Jackson for a strong day with his arm, he profiles as a potential matchup wrecker, and that’s the case this week.
A second straight big week from Jackson would have the Ravens and fantasy managers alike sitting pretty. He might even wiggle his way into the serious MVP conversation if he can light up the Jaguars. You’re playing Jackson with confidence the rest of the way, even if there is some risk baked into his profile.
Trevor Lawrence: This time last week, it sounded as if Lawrence was on the wrong side of questionable. You wouldn’t know that looking at his Week 14 box score saw him drop back 57 times and continue to produce at a level well above what he had given fantasy managers for the 2.5 months prior.
Lawrence has been a top-12 performer at the position in four straight games and is finally checking the boxes we knew he was capable of. You can be impressed by his recent run and still bench him this week – that’s OK.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The mobility was hindered in Week 14, and the Ravens allowed 11.1% fewer yards per pass attempt than any other defense this season. Lawrence’s status as a top-15 signal-caller is no certainty, let alone his continuing to put up top-12 numbers.
It’s tough. You draft a QB with sky-high expectations and when he finally starts to live up to them, you have to bench him with your season on the line. I’m as pro-Lawrence as anyone and will be rooting for him in this spot, but I can’t rank a potentially physically compromised version of him as a fantasy starter in this spot.
Running Backs
Gus Edwards: The Gus Bus got the first carry of last week’s overtime win over the Rams, and there ends the positive talk about what went on for Edwards managers.
He finished the contest with six carries for 15 yards and zero targets. We knew that the bottom was at risk of falling out of Edwards’ TD-reliant profile, but I didn’t see it collapsing that fast. He was third on this team in carries, and considering he is by far the least explosive option of those involved, I’m not sure he will get his lead role back this season.
Keaton Mitchell continues to impress, though we haven’t seen him get chances in close to the end zone. That’s your path to hope. At this moment, I’m still giving Edwards those lucrative touches inside the 10-yard line, but if that is his only path to success, you’re drawing to an inside straight at best.
At this point, Edwards is to be viewed the same as the other 5-10 backup running backs that get some runs but offer too much downside to truly consider. He’s Jamaal Williams, but with an athletic quarterback that can handle the short-distance scoring role.
Keaton Mitchell: While Edwards got the first carry of the game last week, Mitchell recorded an eight-yard catch on the second play, making it clear that the team spent the bye week with the intent to get his explosive skill set more involved.
For the game, he out-snapped Edwards 25-20 (Justice Hill played 29 snaps, but he is the third-down back more than anything) and is the Baltimore back to bet on moving forward.
That said, the volume is still a major concern, especially this week against a Jacksonville run defense that quietly allows the fourth-fewest yards on the ground per game.
Mitchell’s big-play ability is enough to get him into the Flex conversation with names like Jaylen Warren (at IND), but given the presence of Edwards and the abilities of Jackson, I’m not yet ready to give him RB2 consideration.
Travis Etienne Jr.: His value has dipped from where it stood through seven weeks, but with a score in multiple games and multiple receptions in every game this season, he’s still deserving of the “lineup lock” title.
My concern in a tough matchup like this is the fact that he doesn’t have a touch gaining more than 20 yards in five straight games. That keeps his ceiling lower than those he’s ranked near.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
But with over 82% of the RB carries last week in Cleveland (per the Week 15 Cheat Sheet) and the potential of Lawrence’s mobility being limited for the remainder of the regular season, Etienne’s status in your fantasy lineup need not be questioned.
I’ll take it one step further. The Jaguars are more than likely going to be battling for this division down to the wire of the fantasy season, and with a Carolina matchup sitting there in Week 17, I’ll say Etienne teams that make the fantasy Super Bowl close out the deal courtesy of a huge performance from their RB1!
Wide Receivers
Zay Flowers: The rookie gave the Ravens an octopus late in Week 14 to give them the lead and earned 10 targets when all was said and done.
That’s now consecutive games with a touchdown – his first two scores in the USA – and his raw ability is starting to shine through. The floor remains scary, due to the low aDOT and the potential for the Raven run game to handle the scoring duties, but I feel safe in projecting him for 4-6 catches. In this scoring atmosphere, that lands him inside of my top 30 at the position.
I’m playing him over receivers like New York Jet Garrett Wilson, Washington Commander Terry McLaurin, and Cleveland Brown Amari Cooper – all of whom carry more name value but less week-over-week stability.
Odell Beckham Jr.: With a touchdown or 100 yards in four of his past five games, Beckham has turned back the hands of time lately. What do you think? Should he celebrate with a Yacht trip?
He has a 40-plus yard catch in three of his past four games and has scored in three of his past five. He’s not an alpha target earner anymore, but with TE Mark Andrews out of the mix, Baltimore doesn’t have any consistent target earner.
By relying on big plays, Beckham carries a low floor, but this is an offense I trust to put him in spots to succeed. I have him inside of my top 40 at the position, putting him on the Flex radar in a similar vein as Las Vegas Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers and Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett.
Christian Kirk: The core injury that he suffered in Week 13 resulted in him being placed on IR. Because of this, he will miss this week and two more games at the very minimum. That means, in most leagues, he can safely be cut. Every roster spot matters this time of year, making an opportunity to cut the fat off of your roster valuable.
Calvin Ridley: Another week with an active Zay Jones and another impressive target count for Ridley. He wasn’t able to do much with his 13 targets (7.3 fantasy points), but the volume remains bankable, and that is the name of the game this time of year.
Do I worry about this matchup? Of course, I do. But if Lawrence is healthier than he was last week, we are talking about a talented tandem in a spot where they will be asked to score.
Ridley currently ranks as my WR30 as I try to balance his upside with the low floor. If we get clean reports out of Lawrence’s camp, he could elevate to the WR2 conversation.
Zay Jones: It’s hard to earn 14 targets in a professional football game. It might be just as difficult to turn 14 targets into just 29 yards. With Kirk out for the next few weeks at the minimum, Jones is worthy of a roster spot, though he is still a ways away from my starting lineup.
MORE: Week 15 WR Waiver Wire Targets — Top Players To Add Include Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Jones
He’s yet to have a 25-yard reception this season, and if he isn’t going to be efficient with his opportunities (23 catches on 47 targets), he offers more risk than reward.
Parker Washington: The rookie WR was on the field for 62.5% of Lawrence dropbacks and scored for the second time in as many weeks. He did, however, earn just three targets on a day where Lawrence threw 50 passes and he coughed up a fumble to open the second half.
With Kirk on IR, Washington is currently a stash in deeper leagues but isn’t a Week 15 option in average-sized leagues.
That said, if you have a bye this week and want to get ahead of the game, Washington is an interesting add, even in those shallower leagues, with weather-proof games against the Buccaneers and Panthers to round out the fantasy season (and the Titans in Week 18 for good measure if your league extends that far).
Tight Ends
Isaiah Likely: His versatility is not only a perfect fit for this Todd Monken offense, but it is a nightmare for opposing defenses. His 54-yard touchdown against the Rams last week looked like a broken coverage, and it was, but that was the result of confusion that occurred due to Likely running in motion.
Likely’s role in the short passing game helps stabilize his value, and his high-end athleticism elevates his ceiling to the point where he deserves to be started in all formats against a defense that ranks in the top quarter of the league in hurry rate, thus encouraging the type of short passes that allow Likely to thrive.
Evan Engram: It was only a matter of time. Engram was a viable tight end through the first 12 weeks of this season (4+ catches in every game this year), but he didn’t have a ceiling game to carry fantasy managers through the week.
Well, now he has two in a row. After not scoring prior, Engram has hauled in 20 of 21 targets for 177 yards and three scores over the past two weeks, as he single-handedly improves your playoff seeding.
Can he keep rolling? This is a tough matchup, but the Rams did have three pass catchers clear 13 PPR points in Baltimore last week. At the very least, Engram has proven to have a floor that won’t kill you, something that only a handful of tight ends can claim. You’re playing him with confidence in all formats and considering yourself lucky to do so!
Should You Start Isaiah Likely or Cole Kmet?
Likely’s athletic profile is nothing short of elite, and his fit in this quick-strike offense is perfect. I don’t think he is left unguarded for a 54-yard touchdown every week, but I do think his role in the shallow passing game creates a floor that is appealing at the position.
Justin Fields is playing better, but he is still sporadic when throwing to people not named DJ Moore. I think Likely is the better player in the better offense — easy call for me.
Should You Start Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields?
Fields isn’t perfect, but with the rushing floor and the connection with his WR1, he brings more to the table than a banged-up Lawrence in a brutal spot. I was encouraged by what I saw health-wise from Lawrence last week, but Fields gives you a level of upside that I simply don’t think he has access to in this specific matchup.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
