The Baltimore Ravens lost two huge assets to their organization this offseason: Joe Hortiz and Mike Macdonald.
Losing the director of player personnel and an extremely talented defensive coordinator does not bode well for Ravens’ betting lines. Fortunately for them, they can lean on two-time MVP Lamar Jackson alongside Derrick Henry to keep them from falling completely out of grace.
Baltimore Ravens Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Super Bowl Odds: +1000
AFC Odds: +550
AFC North Odds: +145
Win Total: 10.5 (Over -120/Under +100)
To Make/Miss the Playoffs: -260/+205
Baltimore Ravens Offense
Jackson joins Jalen Hurts as the only quarterbacks to support a run game with a positive EPA per rush since 2017 (minimum of 1000 rushes).
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This doesn’t even include rushes by the quarterbacks themselves. This is just one of many examples of the absurd impact Jackson has had in the rushing game in his tenure with the Ravens.
This was with guys like Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, who pale in comparison to Henry, who was seventh in the league in yards after contact per rush.
Jackson was 10th, so pairing those two together is going to make life difficult for opposing defenses.
Two concerns that might stop this potent duo are the offensive line and wide receiver group. The Ravens retain only Tyler Linderbaum and Ronnie Stanley from last year’s starting line, and will rely on Andrew Vorhees, Ben Cleveland, and Patrick Mekari to fill in the gaps.
Luckily for the Ravens, Jackson has never needed an elite receiving group to carry this offense, and that doesn’t look like it will change now.
Baltimore Ravens Defense
Macdonald’s ability to disguise coverages was one of the biggest advantages for the Ravens’ defense. Per Tru Media, the Ravens ranked in the top 10 in defensive EPA per game for Cover Zero, Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, and Cover 6.
Overall, Baltimore ranked second behind the Browns in defensive EPA.
Luckily, the X-factors that carried the defense last year are still on the team: Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith. Their versatility will serve them well with new defensive coordinator Zach Orr.
Other important losses that will hurt the Ravens are in the secondary. Geno Stone and Ronald Darby are no longer with the team, and Nate Wiggins is the hopeful replacement at cornerback.
One Betting Trend To Know
The Ravens covered the spread by a total margin of 142 points over the 2023 season. That is the third-highest mark since 2012.
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Of teams that covered the spread by over 60 points in a season, only two improved that margin the following season — 27 of them hit their over, 19 hit the under, and 1 pushed on win totals.
Best Bet for Ravens in 2024
While the Ravens are still a very good football team, losing such important pieces of your front office, coaching staff, and offensive line is too much to overcome in the toughest division in football.
My best bet would be Under 10.5 (+100), but I still expect the Ravens to be a Wild Card team.