The Carolina Panthers traded for quarterback Baker Mayfield as they continue to search for a franchise passer. After flaming out in Cleveland, Mayfield must establish himself now in Carolina. But what is his fantasy football outlook and current ADP in fantasy drafts for the 2022 season?
Baker Mayfield’s fantasy outlook for 2022
No team has handled their pursuit of a franchise quarterback worse than the Panthers have over the last couple of years.
In 2021, Carolina opted against drafting either Justin Fields or Mac Jones, instead taking cornerback Jaycee Horn. Later that summer, they looked into Deshaun Watson before he said he wasn’t interested. Then, the Panthers settled on trading second and fifth-round picks for Sam Darnold. That ended how we expected.
Carolina had to dip back into the well this offseason as they invested multiple picks into Mayfield and Matt Corral. Mayfield is the best of the group and has won the starting job well before the season opener. Corral is out for the season after suffering a Lisfranc foot injury.
Mayfield is especially interesting. Even after his career year in 2020, the Browns weren’t willing to even talk about a contract extension. Then, his 2021 season was a disaster as his personality and poor play eroded. Injuries also certainly played a part in his on-field decline.
Fantasy managers have never been able to rely on Mayfield to be more than a QB2. Since his rookie season in 2018, Mayfield’s season finishes are 16, 19, 17, and 25, respectively. His struggles with interceptions have often sunk his fantasy value.
Carolina doesn’t have the offensive line or running game Cleveland had for Mayfield to rely upon. This unit finished 29th last year with Darnold and Cam Newton starting all but one game. Offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo was brought in to replace Joe Brady, which is an unfortunate change for Mayfield since Brady runs a friendlier scheme for his skill set.
One benefit Mayfield should see is an increase in attempts. Each of McAdoo’s four years in charge of the New York Giants offense yielded a top-10 passing volume. That’s a stark difference from Kevin Stefanski’s 28th-ranked passing volume in Cleveland in 2020 and 2021.
Mayfield could break into high QB2 territory with the increased attempts and reproduce his efficiency from 2020. Otherwise, he’ll only have value as a bye-week fill-in or mediocre Superflex option.
How the Panthers’ depth chart impacts Baker Mayfield’s fantasy projection for the season
Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Robbie Anderson are a great trio of talent. But McCaffrey, in particular, must prove healthy himself. If he goes down, the Panthers’ situation is far less promising.
Moore and Anderson headline a receiving corps that has the upside to be very good. Moore has continued to churn out 1,000-yard seasons with bad passers. Anderson, meanwhile, is a great deep threat and an underrated route runner who could flourish with Mayfield giving him more contested pass opportunities.
Rashard Higgins has long been a favorite of Mayfield’s, but he struggles to produce for more than a few games in any season. Terrace Marshall Jr. was a promising prospect out of LSU before getting lost in last season’s debacle, and tight end Ian Thomas is mediocre but a fine athlete.
There’s enough in place for this offense to be above-average. The line is a concern and so is the health of Mayfield and McCaffrey. If all goes right, Mayfield should be a solid starter.
Mayfield’s ADP for 2022
With Mayfield firmly planted as the starter, we can more confidently predict his ADP value. Currently, at QB25 and No. 191 overall, he has solid value as a higher-end backup who can ascend to more if everything around him goes well. He’s being taken behind Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz, which is a surprise.
I’d even consider Mayfield above Justin Fields. He’s in a better situation to produce big games, which is what we want from a backup or lower-tier QB2 in Superflex leagues. His interceptions have been a big problem, but we’re projecting upside with any fantasy pick.
Grab Mayfield while you can at this price as the public weighs his 2021 season too heavily.