The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Washington Commanders on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Baker Mayfield.
Is Baker Mayfield Playing vs. the Commanders?
Mayfield does not have an injury designation heading into the game this weekend. Barring any setbacks, he is on track to play vs. the Commanders.
We’ll continue to monitor the Buccaneers’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Baker Mayfield on Wild Card Weekend?
In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season. He’s playing at a level above any ceiling I set for him this summer and that has him ready to go head-to-head with the explosive Jayden Daniels in what could be the most fantasy-friendly game of the week.
Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season. I have him penciled in to extend that streak in this spot against a Washington defense that can be had when they ramp up the aggression (24th in pressure rate when blitzing).
I do trust this Commanders defense more now than I did back in Week 1 when Mayfield lit them up for 289 yards and four scores through the air, but they still check in below average. If Daniels is pushing the Bucs to score, the fantasy points could pile up.
The nice part about rostering Mayfield in DFS is that your roster construction pretty much takes care of itself. This is a condensed offense (Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are the only pass catchers that have my eye) and in going this direction, you get leverage off of what figures to be a very chalky Bucky Irving.
Pencil in a bring-back option (if you think the Bucs will have to air it out, maybe you believe they are playing from behind and that could mean a more friendly game script for Brian Robinson) and you’ve got the foundation for a reasonable lineup with some price flexibility.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Baker Mayfield’s Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
As of Sunday, Mayfield is projected to score 21.7 fantasy points on Wild Card Weekend. This includes 299.7 passing yards, 2.1 passing touchdowns, and 1.1 interceptions. It also includes 4.2 rushing attempts for 15.9 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Commanders' Defense
The Washington Commanders were a below-average defense for most of the season, which their final ranking reflects. Ultimately, Washington's performance was largely fairly consistent based on their level of competition.
The Commanders had five weekly top-10 finishes this season. Those performances have come against the Browns, Panthers, Bears, the Titans, and the Kenny Pickett-led Eagles. Setting Philadelphia aside, the other four all rank in the bottom 10 of PFN's Offense+ metric.
Obviously, that's not the caliber of defense Washington will see in the playoffs, starting with the Buccaneers. Washington continues to miss Marshon Lattimore, who has played only two games since being traded to the team before Week 10. For the season, the Commanders ranked 24th in defensive EPA per dropback, the third-lowest among the 14 playoff teams.
Dan Quinn's unit hasn't performed to the level that his Dallas Cowboys defenses did from 2021-23, but that's not the fairest comparison, given that this was supposed to be the early stages of a rebuild. The Commanders have at least shown the ability to overwhelm one-dimensional offenses, which is more than they could say in recent seasons.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Baker Mayfield’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 12. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (vs. DEN)
2) Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs. PIT)
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. GB)
4) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at TB)
5) Baker Mayfield | TB (vs. WAS)
6) Sam Darnold | MIN (at LAR)
7) Bo Nix | DEN (at BUF)
8) Justin Herbert | LAC (at HOU)
9) Jordan Love | GB (at PHI)
10) Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs. MIN)
11) Russell Wilson | PIT (at BAL)
12) C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs. LAC)
13) Justin Fields | PIT (at BAL)
14) Kenny Pickett | PHI (vs. GB)
15) Jimmy Garoppolo | LAR (vs. MIN)
16) Kyle Trask | TB (vs. WAS)
17) Devin Leary | BAL (vs. PIT)
18) Nick Mullens | MIN (at LAR)
19) Mitchell Trubisky | BUF (vs. DEN)
20) Marcus Mariota | WAS (at TB)
21) Jarrett Stidham | DEN (at BUF)
22) Easton Stick | LAC (at HOU)
23) Davis Mills | HOU (vs. LAC)
24) Malik Willis | GB (at PHI)
Commanders at Buccaneers Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: In Year 1 of the Jayden Daniels era, the Commanders matched their win total from the two seasons prior (12) and posted their best point differential since the Super Bowl champion 1991 team.
QB: Daniels has completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during the current five-game win streak, a drastic improvement from his 49.1% rate over the previous five games.
Offense: The Commanders have converted eight of their last nine fourth-down attempts (four for four over the past two weeks).
Defense: Washington has held the opposition out of the end zone on at least half of their red zone drives in four of their past five games (one TD on six such drives on Sunday against Dallas).
Fantasy: Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes this season, more than his best two seasons combined prior.
Betting: The Commanders have failed to cover three straight road games after opening the season 3-1-1 ATS on the road.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: The Bucs haven’t lost a game in regulation by more than three points since October.
QB: In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season.
Offense: In Weeks 9-14, the Bucs picked up just 38.3% of their third downs. In the four weeks to close the regular season, that rate spiked to 61.4%.
Defense: Just three times through 15 weeks did Tampa Bay fail to force a turnover – they enter the postseason having failed to do so in each of their past three.
Fantasy: Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season.
Betting: Tampa Bay went 5-4 ATS at home this season after going 5-11-1 over the previous two seasons in front of their home fans.