The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the New Orleans Saints in Week 18. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Baker Mayfield.
Is Baker Mayfield Playing in Week 18?
Mayfield is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Buccaneers’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Baker Mayfield in Week 18?
I encourage you to run through the ranking process this week and tell me on Twitter how many QBs you slot in ahead of Baker Mayfield.
Spoiler alert, it’s a short list.
It’s so short that I’m not even sure it’s technically a “list.” Mayfield has 12 top-10s this season, and half of those finishes have been top-fives. He threw for 325 yards and four scores along with three interceptions in a Week 6 trip to New Orleans.
Chris Godwin was heavily featured in that contest while Mike Evans was held in check, something that obviously can’t happen this week, but with Jalen McMillan emerging (one target in that first game, six Buccaneers were more involved) and Marshon Lattimore now a Commander, I can’t think of any reason to bench Mayfield.
That’s a lie. The two reasons are Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels as they are the only two QBs I have ranked ahead of him this weekend.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Baker Mayfield’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 18
As of Sunday, Mayfield is projected to score 23.1 fantasy points in Week 18. This includes 319 passing yards, 2.2 passing touchdowns, and 1.1 interceptions. It also includes 4.5 rushing attempts for 16.9 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Saints' Defense
Although the Saints had an ugly season overall before Dennis Allen's firing, the defense stood out as an issue. Allen was the former DC under Sean Payton, and when his defense ranked well below its sixth-place finish from last year (and 13th in 2022), the writing was on the wall.
Since his firing, New Orleans had alternated top-six weeks with bottom-15 performances. However, they appear to be plateauing after their third straight mediocre-to-bad performance in Week 17 vs. the Raiders.
The Saints recorded a 72.3 (C-) grade in their regular-season home finale. Even against the worst run defense in the NFL, the Saints averaged 0.11 EPA per rush allowed. That's somehow the fifth-best mark for New Orleans in a game this season but still ranks in the bottom half of all teams in Week 17.
For the season, the Saints rank 30th in both EPA per rush (-0.04) and success rate (55.2%). They still stay in the top 20 thanks to a top-15 pass defense by success rate and EPA per play, despite their starting outside cornerbacks being gone since midseason due to trade (Marshon Lattimore) or season-ending injury (Paulson Adebo).
Ultimately, the abysmal run defense places a pretty firm cap on New Orleans' defensive ceiling, particularly since the injury-riddled offense isn't strong enough to force defenses to play from behind and abandon the run.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Baker Mayfield’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 7:00 AM ET on Sunday, January 5. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Week 18 Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 18 QB PPR Rankings
1) Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs. CLE)
2) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at DAL)
3) Baker Mayfield | TB (vs. NO)
4) Joe Burrow | CIN (at PIT)
5) Sam Darnold | MIN (at DET)
6) Jared Goff | DET (vs. MIN)
7) Jordan Love | GB (vs. CHI)
8) Bo Nix | DEN (vs. KC)
9) Kyler Murray | ARI (vs. SF)
10) Justin Herbert | LAC (at LV)
11) Drake Maye | NE (vs. BUF)
12) Bryce Young | CAR (at ATL)
13) Russell Wilson | PIT (vs. CIN)
14) Geno Smith | SEA (at LAR)
15) Caleb Williams | CHI (at GB)
16) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (vs. MIA)
17) Joe Flacco | IND (vs. JAX)
18) Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (vs. CAR)
19) Mason Rudolph | TEN (vs. HOU)
20) Aidan O'Connell | LV (vs. LAC)
21) Mac Jones | JAX (at IND)
22) Tanner McKee | PHI (vs. NYG)
23) Kenny Pickett | PHI (vs. NYG)
24) Cooper Rush | DAL (vs. WAS)
25) C.J. Stroud | HOU (at TEN)
26) Drew Lock | NYG (at PHI)
27) Jimmy Garoppolo | LAR (vs. SEA)
28) Carson Wentz | KC (at DEN)
29) Davis Mills | HOU (at TEN)
30) Tyler Huntley | MIA (at NYJ)
31) Joshua Dobbs | SF (at ARI)
32) Spencer Rattler | NO (at TB)
33) Mitchell Trubisky | BUF (at NE)
34) Taylor Heinicke | LAC (at LV)
35) Bailey Zappe | KC (at DEN)
36) Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE (at BAL)
37) Sam Howell | SEA (at LAR)
38) Josh Allen | BUF (at NE)
Saints at Buccaneers Trends and Insights
New Orleans Saints
Team: The Saints have held the ball for under 23 minutes in consecutive games, totaling 10 points on 106 offensive plays over that stretch
QB: Spencer Rattler has completed 56% of his passes just once this season and has two more multi-interception games than he has multi-TD games.
Offense: The Saints converted just one-of-10 third downs on Sunday, their lowest rate of the season (four games under 30% this season),
Defense: The Saints have allowed a score on the majority of opponent drives four times this season, two coming over the past two weeks.
Fantasy: Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson chewed up 44.1% of New Orleans’ targets and 45% of their receptions.
Betting: New Orleans has covered six straight road divisional games in which they’ve closed as an underdog.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: Since the beginning of November, Tampa Bay is 5-3, a record that could have swung even more in their favor (one overtime loss and the other two coming by no more than three points).
QB: Baker Mayfield's average QB+ is 78.6 this season. That ranks favorably to 2020 Tom Brady (77.9) as he led the Bucs to a Super Bowl win.
Offense: On Sunday, Bucky Irving became the second player this season with a 30+ yard catch and a 30+ yard run in multiple games, joining Saquon Barkley.
Defense: For the first time this season, Tampa Bay has failed to force a turnover in consecutive games.
Fantasy: Jalen McMillan has a touchdown catch in four straight games, the longest streak by a rookie since Lee Evans (2004).
Betting: The Bucs are 6-2 ATS over their past eight games and have seen over tickets cash in each of their past three.