The Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ season ended when Baker Mayfield threw a game-sealing interception to Detroit Lions linebacker Derrick Barnes in Sunday afternoon’s Divisional Round loss.
But that unfortunate conclusion belied Mayfield’s excellent 2023 campaign, during which he posted career-highs in completion rate (64.3%), passing yards (4,044), and passing touchdowns (28). Mayfield put up that production while working on a one-year deal with a $4 million base value.
He’s about to earn significantly more than that this offseason. Mayfield, 28, will reach the free agent market for the second consecutive spring and could be searching for a multi-year deal. Will he stick with the Buccaneers after his round season, or will the former No. 1 pick have other suitors around the NFL?
Baker Mayfield’s Best Free Agent Landing Spots
Mayfield won’t be the only high-profile Bucs free agent hitting the open market in March. Wideout Mike Evans, safety Antoine Winfield Jr., and linebacker Devin White are also on expiring contracts. General manager Jason Licht will have his work cut out for him this offseason, but retaining Mayfield might need to be his top priority.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield and the Bucs seem like a match made in heaven. With the retired Tom Brady carrying a $35 million cap hit in 2023, Tampa Bay needed a cheap quarterback option.
Mayfield gave Todd Bowles’ team league-average play at a discount rate, even accounting for the additional $2.85 million the Oklahoma product earned via incentives.
Even if the Buccaneers tried to pursue an upgrade over Mayfield in the coming months, they might not have many options. Kirk Cousins is the only pending free agent quarterback who might be guaranteed to offer better production than Mayfield, and Cousins seems increasingly likely to stick with the Minnesota Vikings.
Tampa Bay could consider a trade for QB. Justin Fields might be available, but the Arizona Cardinals may hold onto Kyler Murray.
The 2024 NFL Draft could yield a quarterback prospect for the Bucs, but a team coming off a Divisional Round appearance probably won’t want to turn over a veteran-laden roster to a rookie passer chosen with the 26th pick.
So, what will a contract between Mayfield and Tampa Bay look like? If the two sides need a foundation to build from, they should get a copy of the three-year, $75 million deal Geno Smith signed with the Seattle Seahawks last offseason.
"It would mean a lot to me," Baker Mayfield says of wanting to return to Tampa in 2024. "I would love that."
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) January 21, 2024
That contract offered concessions for both parties. Smith, who’d never inked a long-term deal during his NFL career, received nearly $30 million in guarantees. Meanwhile, the Seahawks retained optionality with a quarterback who’d posted only one starting-caliber season. Seattle was only locked into one season with Geno and could theoretically cut ties as early as this offseason.
Mayfield’s statistics weren’t quite as gaudy as Smith’s in his platform season, but Mayfield is five years younger than the Seahawks’ starter. A three-year extension in the $80 million range should make sense for the Bucs.
Mayfield shouldn’t accept a guarantee package below $36 million — that’s the projected value of the 2024 quarterback franchise tag. Tampa Bay will likely use the tag as a last resort if it can’t extend its starting signal-caller, so Mayfield has a baseline target to hit.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin indicated this week that Kenny Pickett — who lost his starting job to backup Mason Rudolph after suffering a late-season ankle injury — would enter the offseason as Pittsburgh’s QB1 but also said the 2022 first-round pick will face competition.
Mayfield would be more than competition, which might not be what the Steelers are looking for as they attempt to salvage Pickett’s career. But Pittsburgh boasts an excellent defense and explosive offensive options like Jaylen Warren and George Pickens. This is a team built to compete immediately.
MORE: 2024 NFL Free Agents by Position
The Steelers snuck into the playoffs while deploying a Pickett/Rudolph/Mitchell Trubisky trifecta under center.
Mayfield would drastically raise Pittsburgh’s ceiling and allow them to make noise in the playoffs instead of suffering another first-round exit.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders found their head coaching answer this week by removing the interim tag from Antonio Pierce’s title. They seem to be closing in on doing the same for interim GM Champ Kelly.
But Las Vegas might not have a quarterback for 2024. Jimmy Garoppolo is an obvious candidate for release, while fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell finished 25th among 30 qualified passers in QBR.
If they’re trying to implement a long-term vision, taking another shot at a quarterback in this year’s draft might be a better option for the Raiders. But Vegas’ defense showed tremendous improvement down the stretch, and Pierce and Co. might view themselves as 2024 contenders. In that case, a veteran QB like Mayfield could make sense in Black and Silver.
Want to predict the results of the 2023 NFL postseason with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? How about looking into in-depth breakdowns of team depth charts or the NFL playoff schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with all that and more!