As dynasty fantasy football managers look towards the NFL Draft as the next step in the offseason process, Western Kentucky QB Bailey Zappe established himself as a name to remember for 2022. Following a successful collegiate career, what are Zappe’s strengths, are there any concerns, and how did his landing spot with the New England Patriots impact his dynasty value in 2022 and beyond?
Bailey Zappe’s dynasty fantasy profile
The correct scheme means everything. If a player is in a scheme that doesn’t work, they struggle. One example is Kenneth Walker III of Michigan State. Wake Forest’s delayed-mesh rushing scheme held him back. Then, he transferred to MSU and their zone scheme and had the best season of any RB in the country. The same applies to Western Kentucky’s Zappe, who found a change of scenery would do him good.
Zappe spent his first three seasons with FCS program Houston Baptist. He found decent success, throwing for over 6,600 yards with 58 TDs to 28 interceptions in 2018 and 2019. Following a truncated season in 2020 in which Zappe tossed 1,833 yards, 15 TDs, and just 1 pick over a four-game season, he followed offensive coordinator Zach Kittley, who took the same role at Western Kentucky.
Zappe went to a whole new level in 2021. He threw for an NCAA single-season record of 5,967 yards and 62 passing touchdowns. The 2021 Conference USA Most Valuable Player and first-team all-league selection also ranked seventh in passing efficiency and ninth in completion percentage. Zappe was named the Boca Raton Bowl MVP, passing for 422 yards and 6 scores in the team’s win over Appalachian State.
While there are questions about how an Air Raid QB can translate into the NFL, Zappe put together a season for the ages and became one of the most underrated QBs of the 2022 NFL Draft class.
Strengths
For all the concerns about his system, Zappe showed the ability to go through progressions and make multiple checks at the line pre-snap. There are plenty of anticipatory throws on tape from Zappe. While he will face a learning curve in the NFL, I’m not worried, as he is not projected to be a Day 1 starter anyway.
Zappe also has great feet. He remains light on his feet and is fluid in his movement inside the pocket. This allows him to step up into the pocket to make throws when he feels the rush closing in around him. He senses pressure very well.
He can also routinely make throws into tight windows with velocity. At the Senior Bowl, Zappe was clocked with the second-quickest initial air speed at 74.4 mph via GPS-tracked footballs. This was 1.3 mph behind Liberty QB Malik Willis (75.7).
Zappe will never be compared to Willis on the ground. Nevertheless, his 4.88 40-yard dash isn’t far off from what is seen on tape. Yet, he’s more mobile than fast. He demonstrates a decent change-of-direction ability to avoid contact. Additionally, he can pick up a first down or some extra yards if needed.
Weaknesses
While I touched on his GPS data, on tape, Zappe’s arm strength is up for debate. The ball seemed to run out of steam. Throws like a deep hitch on the far sideline or a far-hash-to-the-numbers — which are requirements in the NFL — were struggles at times for Zappe. His arm also shows up on deeper balls when his passes seem to hang rather than zip into the receiver’s path.
Size is also a concern. The NFL wants big-framed QBs, as it’s not like the defensive linemen are getting any smaller. At the NFL Combine, Zappe checked in at 6′ 1/2″ and 215 pounds. This is on the smaller side. It means Zappe will need to heavily focus on getting depth on his drop. While it’s not a deal-breaker, teams are less likely to give the keys of the team to a barely 6’0″ QB with one year of production unless he comes in and blows them away in camp.
Zappe’s Injury history
Like many quarterbacks, especially the ones who don’t make a living on the ground, Zappe has a clean bill of health. Aside from the typical bangs, bruises, sore ribs, and shoulders, Zappe made it through college without any injuries which prevented him from playing or that would raise flags to evaluators.
Bailey Zappe selected by the New England Patriots
For dynasty purposes, even superflex leagues, Zappe is not a draftable quarterback. The Patriots have their QB of the future in 2021 first-round pick Mac Jones from Alabama. He was the best rookie QB last season. It’s his job, and this by no means should be misconstrued as anything but a depth selection.
The Patriots know the value of a high-level backup quarterback. This is Zappe’s role. He’ll come in and compete with Brian Hoyer for the No. 2 role as the primary backup, likely ending Jarrett Stidham’s role on the team.