As fantasy football managers look for later-round ADP tight ends, Cleveland Browns TE Austin Hooper will be a name that will garner consideration. In a position lacking depth, should fantasy players draft Hopper in fantasy, or does his outlook on the Browns’ offense suggest he could struggle again in 2021?
Austin Hooper’s fantasy outlook for 2021
After four years of NFL production with the Atlanta Falcons, many believed Hooper’s fantasy outlook was the best it had ever been. He was coming off a career-best 2019 campaign where he recorded 75 receptions for 787 yards and 6 touchdowns as the TE6.
Also, to his favor, Kevin Stefanski came from the Minnesota Vikings. As their offensive coordinator, the Vikings ran an offense that featured tight ends as a primary read in the progression.
The Browns heavily used tight ends in 2020 (29.9%). Still, it did not result in the fantasy success many hoped for with Hooper. Playing in 13 games, he finished the year as the TE21 in PPR (8.7 ppg). He caught 46 of 70 targets for 435 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Despite having a 15.9% target share and 9 red-zone targets, Hooper disappointed with his opportunities. What makes his limited production seem worse is star WR Odell Beckham Jr. was out with a torn ACL.
Although Hooper will see most of the TE snaps, the Browns will continue to give reps to both David Njoku and Harrison Bryant. In the second year of Stefanski’s offense, the Browns’ passing game might be even better in 2021. But it’s unlikely Hooper’s fantasy outlook is much different than what we just saw last season.
Fantasy projection
As I touched on above, the Browns targeted tight ends on 29.9% of their passes. However, 48% of those (67) went to Njoku and Bryant. Hooper’s season started with three virtually unplayable weeks, respectively finishing as the TE32, TE29, and TE32. However, there was a bounce-back over the next three weeks as he scored 35.3 PPR points as the TE6 before missing two games.
This kind of inconsistency is likely what we will see again in 2021. Hooper was startable (top 12) just as many times as he was outside the top 18 (six times). There is undeniable talent there, but unless Hooper sees 6 or more targets a game, it’s likely not going to amount to much for fantasy.
The return of Beckham to the lineup will soak up a sizable amount of targets (21%). Compiled with the rotation at tight end and lower overall passing volume, Hooper may struggle again in 2021 unless he’s hyper-efficient in the red zone.
I have Hooper seeing 13% of the target share in my early projections. That translates to 51 receptions, 72 targets, 506 yards, and 4 touchdowns.
Austin Hooper’s fantasy ADP
If we examine Hooper using Sleeper’s ADP for 2021 redraft leagues, he is coming off the board as pick 191.4 in PPR 1QB and 167.5 in superflex formats. According to Fleaflicker, he has an ADP of 217.3.
Why you should not draft Austin Hooper in 2021
I am of the mindset in 2021 that I am paying up for a tight end. I want one of the top-six tight ends on my fantasy team. There is just such a massive advantage when you have an elite tight end in redraft.
If I am going tight end in late rounds, I am shooting for either volume or athleticism. While the talent is there for Hooper, the volume and upside are not. I believe we have seen the type of player Hooper is and his role on this offense.
I prefer players like Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant, Tyler Higbee, Irv Smith Jr., Jonnu Smith, Cole Kmet, or even Adam Trautman at their current ADP. All of these players have the upside that I do not think Hooper matches.
Hooper could be valuable as a streaming option based on matchups in 2021. Yet, his fantasy outlook is not one I want to be tied to in Week 1.