The fall from fantasy football grace can come very swiftly when players approach the age cliff in the NFL. After universally being selected as a first-round pick in fantasy drafts last year and falling flat, Washington Commanders running back Austin Ekeler’s fantasy value has dropped significantly entering the upcoming season.
Can fantasy managers expect one more great year from the veteran RB in 2024?
Austin Ekeler’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 177.9
- Rushing Yards: 479.7
- Rushing TDs: 5.8
- Receptions: 44.1
- Receiving Yards: 351.6
- Receiving TDs: 2.7
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Ekeler This Year?
The catastrophic drop-off in production ruined the fantasy season of many managers who invested their first-round pick in the RB1 overall from the 2022 season. Ekeler’s 628 rushing yards, 51 receptions, 436 receiving yards, and six total touchdowns still produced an RB26 overall finish in full-PPR formats — but it was a far cry from exceptional production over the previous two years.
Ekeler’s 3.51 yards per carry in 2023 was a career low by a wide margin. Additionally, he finished 53rd amongst running backs with just seven carries of over 10+ yards, three fewer than his teammate Joshua Kelley, who had 72 fewer carries on the season.
Ekeler’s efficiency struggles also appear in the advanced metrics. His yards after contact per attempt dropped from 1.9 in 2022 to 1.5 in 2023. This metric has dropped for five straight seasons, suggesting he’s potentially losing his ability to consistently dismiss would-be tacklers as he ages.
Speaking of his age, Ekeler turned 29 years old earlier this year. This means he’s right in the midst of an age cliff where data warns many running backs’ production falls off by a considerable margin.
Now, does the ankle injury Ekeler sustained in the season opener potentially provide some context behind his head-scratching drop in per-touch efficiency last year? Sure, it likely did have an impact on his overall production and level of performance.
MORE: Fantasy Team Names | Fantasy League Names
Yet, the biggest concern regarding Ekeler’s 2024 fantasy outlook is his change of scenery from the Los Angeles Chargers to the Commanders this offseason.
The driving force of Ekeler’s fantasy value has always been his insanely high pass-catching floor and absurd touchdown production. He still ranked fifth in targets at the RB position with 74 looks in the passing game, but that was in Los Angeles with Justin Herbert.
Ekeler is now set to play with dynamic dual-threat quarterback Jayden Daniels, who tends to check the ball down to running backs at a lower rate.
Another factor working against Ekeler’s fantasy value is the presence of Brian Robinson Jr., who is likely better suited to early-down and short-yardage work.
Of course, Ekeler has proven that he has an incredible nose for the end zone. This doesn’t make Robinson the foregone conclusion to lead Washington in carries if Ekeler returns to form, but he does present better competition than what Ekeler saw from Kelley and Isaiah Spiller over his final years with the Chargers.
Ekeler’s ADP at No. 87 overall (RB31) almost feels disrespectful to a player who finished the year as the RB1 overall just two years ago. For some additional context, Ekeler is currently being selected after Nick Chubb and Jonathon Brooks, both of whom are coming off of season-ending knee injuries last year.
Ultimately, Ekeler’s role in a new offense with a rookie quarterback under center presents a scenario with a wide range of outcomes. His draft-day price is very reasonable for a player with his outstanding fantasy résumé, but the pitfalls were very present last year.
Temper your expectations if you decide to add him in the middle rounds. But if he can return to his 2022 form, Ekeler could be a great value as your RB3 in 2024.
