Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler’s fantasy football value has been all over the place this year. He performed well early in the season but suffered an injury that kept him on the sidelines. Now that he’s back, he is potentially dealing with a new injury. This makes Austin Ekeler’s Week 15 value once again uncertain. Can he be trusted for your fantasy playoffs this week?
Weeks 1-3: Before Austin Ekeler’s injury
Austin Ekeler’s fantasy stats to start the year
He started the season as a top-10 running back, even going in the first round of some drafts.
Before Austin Ekeler’s injury, he was clearly the workhorse back for the Chargers. Through the first three weeks, Ekeler totaled 47 rushing attempts for 236 yards, just over five yards per carry, along with a single touchdown. On top of that, Ekeler caught all 16 of the targets thrown his way for another 142 receiving yards. He put up 59.8 PPR points in this stretch at an average of almost 20 per week. Ekeler showed his true RB1 colors during this stretch.
His Week 4 injury put the brakes on that, however.
Ekeler’s Week 4 injury
Ekeler started the Week 4 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but left early due to a hamstring injury. The injury was initially described as a Grade 2 hamstring strain, but Ekeler himself later came out and said that part of the tendon essentially ripped off the bone, which is much closer to a Grade 3 injury. The original diagnosis was a 4-6 week absence, but there was speculation that Ekeler might be done for the year, which thankfully turned out not to be true.
Weeks 4-11: While Ekeler was out
The Chargers leaned on a rotating group of backup running backs while Austin Ekeler missed time to recover. Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley, Kalen Ballage, and even Troymaine Pope all got more touches with Ekeler out of the lineup. While they did their best, the team definitely missed Ekeler on the field.
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In the six games that Ekeler missed, Kalen Ballage was the leading rusher three times, Justin Jackson was twice, and Joshua Kelley was once. The leading rusher only got over 100 total yards twice whereas Ekeler did it twice in the first three weeks. The Chargers need Ekeler to come back in a bad way if they’re going to be competitive going forward.
Weeks 12-14: Austin Ekeler returns
Ekeler’s stats post-injury
Austin Ekeler returned in time for the Week 12 matchup against the Buffalo Bills and resumed his workhorse role. From Week 12 through Week 14, Ekeler recorded 37 rushing attempts for 159 yards, a 4.3 yards per carry average. He also racked up 24 catches on 34 targets for 184 receiving yards. He put up 58.3 PPR points over these last three weeks, just a point and a half fewer than his total in the first three weeks of the year. Ekeler appears to be right back to his old RB1 ways.
As his stats show, he didn’t appear to have missed a step at all. If this injury was a major one, his play on the field hasn’t suffered because of it, at least not yet. He was able to return to the field and put up similar numbers without missing a beat. Ekeler is suffering from a new injury now though, which could pose a problem for fantasy managers looking for his help in the playoffs.
Austin Ekeler’s Week 15 Outlook
Ekeler’s new injury concerns
Since Austin Ekeler and the Chargers play on Thursday night, the team provides practice “estimates” for injured players. Austin Ekeler showed up as a “DNP” on Monday due to a quadriceps injury, a sign that his injury might be more serious than originally thought. He was upgraded to a limited participant on Tuesday’s estimated report, but this warrants some attention heading into Week 15.
Tempering expectations for Austin Ekeler in Week 15
If he is good to go, what should we expect from Austin Ekeler for fantasy against the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Night Football? For one thing, the Raiders are tenth in Defensive Points Against Consistency Score (DPACS), which is quite favorable. They give up the tenth most consistent points to opposing running backs, an average of 19.26 PPR points per game.
This definitely bodes well for Ekeler, who is averaging 17.2 PPR points per game himself on the year. That even includes Week 4 when he left with the hamstring strain.
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Ekeler’s fellow running backs did fine in his absence but are not a real threat to his playing time now. They may be asked to spell him, but none are going to be in a true timeshare with Ekeler. The only thing holding Ekeler back is this new injury, so keep an eye on that in case something changes. All of this tells me that Ekeler should put up at least 15 PPR points this week based on the numbers. This makes him a definite RB1 candidate in most formats, so fire him up!
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Andrew Hall is a writer for PFN covering the NFL and Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter: @AndrewHallFF.