One of the top running backs in the NFL and fantasy football, Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler projects to be an early pick once again. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Ekeler’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Austin Ekeler’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Over the last three seasons, Austin Ekeler has proven to be the perfect modern running back for fantasy football. Ekeler was the RB4 in 2019 and followed it up by averaging 16.5 points per game in 2020 (10 games). His season could have truly been special if not for a Grade 2 hamstring injury that cost Ekeler six games.
Following the hiring of former Saints OC Joe Lombardi, it was widely assumed Ekeler would see a similar role to that of Alvin Kamara. That’s exactly what happened. Last season, Ekeler finished No. 2 behind only Jonathan Taylor in fantasy, averaging 21.5 PPR/game. Racking up 1,459 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns, Ekeler accounted for 62.4% of the Chargers’ rushing share and a whopping 15.1% of their targets.
Over the last three seasons, including 2019 with Melvin Gordon, Ekeler has finished as an RB2 or better in 76% of his games while averaging 19.7 PPR/game. With more and more formats using full-PPR as their default scoring setting, Ekeler’s volume in the passing game, along with his innate ability to find the end zone, keeps him in the upper tier of the position for fantasy football.
Ekeler could be the No. 2 overall player selected in 2022 drafts
For PPR leagues, Ekeler should not only be a first-round pick but could go as high as the No. 2 overall running back for 2022. Taylor is the locked-in RB1, but it’s up for debate behind him. In most cases, it will be the trio of Ekeler, Derrick Henry, and Christian McCaffrey. From there, each brings their own level of upside as they excel on the field and should be on the upper end of opportunities.
The question becomes which running back you feel has the better chance to play in most games. There is a clear path for any of the four running backs mentioned to finish as the fantasy RB1 this year.
How the Chargers’ depth chart impacts Austin Ekeler’s fantasy projection for the season
Those just now plugging back into the NFL are quickly finding how much the landscaped has changed. Key players moved this offseason via both free agency and trades, seemingly all winding up in the AFC West. This division is as loaded of a division as I can remember. There is not a team in the AFC West that would not be competing for a divisional title in any other division. It’s that stacked. Sitting near the top and well within the argument for the top spot is the Chargers.
From top to bottom, they are stacked, and after missing the playoffs by an overtime field goal, they got even better. Ekeler is allowed to be a weapon as defenses must focus their attention on the entire offense. Justin Herbert is one of the league’s rising stars, if not there already, and has a receiving corps that can take over a game in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Both Joshua Palmer and Jaylen Guyton are expected to take another step forward and fight for the WR3 role, with Gerald Everett replacing Jared Cook at tight end.
Los Angeles upgraded both sides of the ball this offseason
Also acquired in the offseason were two premier defensive players. Top free agent addition CB J.C. Jackson left New England and joined Asante Samuel Jr., Derwin James, and Nasir Adderly in the secondary. Up front, the Chargers completed a trade with the Chicago Bears, which pairs pass rusher Joey Bosa with former All-Pro and NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack. These are massive additions to a defense that ranked No. 29 in the NFL last year, allowing an average of 27 points per game.
The Chargers also continued the work that started last season to overhaul the offensive line. With the No. 17 overall pick, the Chargers selected G Zion Johnson, making it back-to-back drafts in which the Chargers have drafted an OL in the first round. I’m sure Ekeler will not be complaining about better running lanes, and neither will fantasy managers.
Is Isaiah Spiller the priority handcuff for Ekeler?
The other intriguing addition for the Chargers came via the draft when they selected Texas A&M RB Isaiah Spiller in Round 4. Despite the testing numbers, I am still a massive fan of Spiller. His film is what sold me. Spiller is an efficient rusher with ridiculous levels of contact balance, footwork, and vision.
A two-time All-SEC selection, Spiller led the conference with 2,993 rushing yards, including 1,844 rushing yards after contact since 2019. Spiller is a receiving weapon much like Eleker, just minus the high-level explosiveness. He should step in as the No. 2 over both Joshua Kelly and Larry Rountree III and be the backup the Chargers have been looking for in recent years.
Spiller still appears to be a priority handcuff for Ekeler. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has more opportunities than some believe he will see. With Spiller on the field, the offense doesn’t need to change fundamentally. Add in the length of the season and wear and tear, and Spiller could be a worthy stash for fantasy but should not be viewed as competition for Ekeler’s job.
As far as the pecking order, the only RB I am targeting in the backfield, other than Ekeler, is Spiller. However, there are some questions as to the depth chart. Spiller is dealing with an ankle injury which HC Brandon Staley labeled “week to week,” and he has played behind both Joshua Kelly and Larry Roundtree III this preseason while also rotating with them in practice. I do believe Spiller’s talent will prevail in the end, but it could take a few weeks before we see that happen.
Ekeler’s ADP for 2022
Let’s hope you have an early pick if you want to start your roster with Ekeler. As we hit the primary fantasy draft season, Ekeler is well inside the first round with an ADP of 3, placing him as the RB3, behind only Johnathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey.
As far as his positional rankings, PFN’s Fantasy Football Rankings are in lock-step with ADP, placing Ekeler as the RB3. The only difference is he Is 4th overall due to the inclusion of Rams WR Cooper Kupp ahead of him.
Outside of Taylor, every running back has questions, including the first-round backs. For Ekeler, can he sustain his absurd touchdown rate, which hit 7.25% last year? That and can he avoid the soft tissue injuries which have taken him off the field in the past.
After Taylor and McCaffrey go, the group of Ekeler, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Najee Harris and their order is almost the dealers choice, letting the scoring format help make the decision. In PPR formats, Ekeler is about as good as it gets.