Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler has been nothing short of fantasy football royalty over the past two seasons. But are there signs that regression could come during the 2023 season? Let’s take a closer look.
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Were There Any Signs in 2022 To Suggest Austin Ekeler Could Regress this Season?
It gives me no joy whatsoever to cast clouds of uncertainty against an RB who has embraced the fantasy football community and defied all the odds to become a fantasy superstar, but we have to remove our emotions when looking at players objectively.
Let’s start with the positive. Ekeler has strung together two consecutive seasons of 1,500+ total yards, 70+ receptions, and 18+ TDs which generated RB1 and RB2 finishes in PPR formats. Objectively, that production is phenomenal.
Another reason why it would be tough to rank him outside of the top five RBs is just how durable he has been throughout his NFL career. Ekeler has missed just nine games through his six-year NFL career.
Despite the Chargers drafting an RB for three consecutive years (2020-2022) to help lighten the load for Ekeler, he posted a career-high 311 total touches last season.
So, not only did the Chargers have to rely heavily on Ekeler in the running game in 2022, but he also saw a career-high 127 targets, which is an average of seven per game.
Much of this had to do with the plethora of injuries to the Chargers WRs, with Keenan Allen missing seven games and Mike Williams missing four.
Through the first 13 weeks of the season, Ekeler averaged 8.6 targets per game.
But when Allen and Williams returned to the lineup in Weeks 14-18, Ekeler’s targets on a per-game basis were nearly cut in half, all the way down to 4.6 targets per game.
You may be quick to dismiss that small sample size as a death sentence for Ekeler’s target share in the passing game, but the one time that Ekeler averaged fewer than five receptions per game over the last four years (4.3 receptions per game in 2021) was the same year Allen and Williams both played in 16 games in the season.
Then, when you add the talented WR they selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft — Quentin Johnston from TCU — to go with a brand new offensive coordinator — Kellen Moore — who loves to utilize 11 personnel (three WRs on the field with an RB and a TE) in his vertical passing scheme by having multiple receiving threats on the field to push the ball down the field, you could have the recipe for Ekeler seeing a sizeable regression in target volume in 2023.
When you combine his potentially reduced role in the passing game — his PPR floor has always been the foundation of his fantasy value — with the always-present possibility of TD regression from someone who has 38 TDs over the last two seasons, it certainly becomes a bit more plausible to think Ekeler could slip out of the top five at the RB position in 2023.
Will Austin Ekeler Fall Outside of the Top 5 Fantasy Football RBs in 2023?
While the potential for a reduced target share is certainly a real possibility for Ekeler, he has proven over a substantial amount of time that he is a reliable option in the passing game.
Since 2019, Ekeler has never averaged fewer than 5.8 targets per game. Until his role drastically changes, he has simply been far too consistent in this department to project a significant drop-off.
As far as TD production goes, those who banked heavily on TD regression for Ekeler heading into 2022 were burned … badly.
He is still the lead RB in a high-powered offense that could take a significant step forward in 2023. If Moore is able to unlock Justin Herbert’s MVP-type potential in his vertical passing scheme, this could be the highest-scoring offense in the NFL.
Perhaps he doesn’t reach the 18-TD threshold for a third consecutive season, but he is certainly very capable of producing double-digit scores again in 2023.
All potential usage and TD regression concerns aside, Ekeler is still as good a bet as any to finish inside the top five at the RB position for a third consecutive year.
