Washington Commanders RB Austin Ekeler is coming off a disappointing season that was either a product of injury or decline. If it’s the former, Ekeler could end up being a great pick in fantasy football drafts. If it’s the latter, he’s probably overvalued. What should managers do with Ekeler in Best Ball drafts?
Austin Ekeler’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
After four consecutive RB1 seasons, including two straight over 21 fantasy points per game, Ekeler had his worst season since 2018 last year. He averaged just 13.2 fantasy points per game.
Contributing to Ekeler’s struggles was a 3.5 yards-per-carry average and a paltry, by his standards, 14.7% target share.
Now 29 years old, there are certainly reasons to ask questions as to whether Ekeler is declining. It’s important to note he was still able to average a respectable 4.6 yards per touch last season, and his 4.02 yards created per touch was inside the top 10.
While he was able to make the odd big plays, Ekeler struggled to produce them consistently. A mere 2.2% of his carries went for 15+ yards.
You may see some say that Ekeler is old and the decline we saw last year was the beginning of the end. But I posit his early-season ankle sprain had a lot to do with his ineffectiveness last season.
Ekeler suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 1 last season. It only cost him three games, but anyone who has played fantasy long enough knows that high ankle sprains may not fully heal for 4-6 months. The typical 4-6 week timeline (which players often return early from) is for a return to play, which NFL fans often confuse with a return to 100%.
Even if Ekeler is declining as a runner, receiving skills age far better. Ekeler doesn’t want to touch the ball 20 times a game. Ideally, he will handle somewhere in the realm of 8-10 carries and 4-6 targets per game.
Ekeler’s touchdown upside will be reduced as long as Brian Robinson Jr. is healthy. Regardless, Ekeler has the chance to be a viable fantasy RB2.
Austin Ekeler becomes the 6️⃣th running back in #NFL history (Super Bowl era) to reach 30 receiving touchdowns! pic.twitter.com/SBNlg3NyCE
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 30, 2023
With 1,430 career touches, Ekeler actually doesn’t have as much tread as you would expect from a running back entering his eighth season. Compare him to someone like Joe Mixon, who entered the league the same year. Mixon has played in six more games than Ekeler but has 424 more touches.
Should You Draft Ekeler in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Ekeler’s price tag this season is going to be the least expensive it’s been since 2020. He’s being drafted right around where he finished last season. If anything, some more decline is baked into his price.
To be fair, drafting Ekeler is banking on one of the oldest running backs in the league not only to bounce back but also to stay healthy. There’s always the chance it’s over for Ekeler and he ends up having no fantasy value. I would consider that unlikely, though.
If you read my Robinson outlook, you know I’m not exactly bullish on the Commanders’ offense having much positive game script. That’s bad news for Robinson, but good news for Ekeler.
If the Commanders are trailing, they’re throwing. If they’re throwing, Ekeler will be the one on the field.
There’s little to no chance Ekeler will score 18-20 touchdowns as he did in 2021 and 2022. But can he total 1,500 yards while catching 80 passes? I think so.
If Ekeler can do that, he’ll be worth his price in Best Ball drafts. Plus, there’s always the chance Robinson gets hurt, and Ekeler is forced into a high-volume role once again, which would give him RB1 upside.
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