The Atlanta Falcons fantasy preview for Week 7 discusses their evolving tight end situation, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers outlook revolves around Rachaad White’s ranking in a week that features plenty of confusion among fantasy football managers at the RB position.
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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
- Total: 38.5
- Falcons implied points: 18
- Buccaneers implied points: 20.5
Quarterbacks
Desmond Ridder: Your fun fact for the day is that Ridder has as many top-10 finishes this season as Mahomes.
That’s simply the truth of the matter after Ridder has thrown for over 300 yards in consecutive games. It’s funny what a developing third-round pick with talent around him can do when given the opportunity, right? Per the Week 7 Cheat Sheet:
- Past two games: 28 completions per game
- First four games: 29.8 pass attempts per game
You love to see the growth, but he still doesn’t deserve to be rostered in standard formats. Those two performances have come against defenses that rank outside the top 12 in blitz rate, something that won’t be the case this week against a Bucs team that is one of three to bring the heat on over 40% of opponent snaps.
This Ridder run is a reminder that anything can happen in small windows. Savvy fantasy managers look at the macro results, not the micro, and the overall picture for Ridder to retain any fantasy value is bleak, to say the least.
Baker Mayfield: Need further proof of that Ridder point? Mayfield’s 2023 stat line is just that, with the spike performance happening earlier in the season:
- Week 4 at NO: Three pass TDs and 31 rushing yards
- The other four games: Four pass TDs and 36 rushing yards
Before going on bye last week, Mayfield had his worst game of the season (206 yards and no touchdowns on 37 attempts against the Lions) and is nothing more than a low-end QB2 that I have ranked behind Ridder this week.
I hate to rain on someone’s parade, so I will leave you with this: Those positive Mayfield numbers I mentioned above, guess who the Buccaneers get during the fantasy Super Bowl?
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson: It’s only a matter of time until we get a truly crazy game from this explosive rookie. His combination of talent and role (64 snaps and 45 routes last week) demands he be started every week this season and for the foreseeable future.
Robinson has at least four grabs in five of six games this season — proof that his skill set is well beyond his years. There is no insight to offer here; Robinson is a weekly lineup lock. What I can do is give you a paragraph to snip and send to the Robinson manager as you attempt to acquire him at a minor discount.
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That’s now four straight games with under 15 carries for the first-round pick, and he’s been held under 50 yards on the ground in three of those four contests. Last week’s game with Washington was within one score for the entire second half, and over those 30 minutes, Tyler Allgeier out-carried Robinson 3-2 in the red zone.
As good as Robinson is, he has just one touchdown over the past five weeks, and none of his 80 carries this season have reached paydirt.
You’re welcome.
Tyler Allgeier: Do I believe Allgeier is a fine NFL player? I do, but that’s like asking if the best steakhouse in the state has good carrots on their salad. Sure, I prefer good carrots to bad ones, but does it matter?
No, no, it does not. Allgeier hasn’t scored since Week 1, and I — your humble wordsmith — have more receiving yards in October than the 2022 fifth-round pick.
Allgeier’s 13.5 touches per game deserve to be rostered and maybe even played this week in the right spot (RB26 for me). I’m just not doing so with much excitement, given his significantly capped ceiling.
Rachaad White: A player like White is a fine example of how brutal the Week 7 schedule is. Atlanta allows under 4.0 yards per carry, and the Bucs rank 23rd in time of possession — metrics that would normally make it borderline impossible for an average talent to crack fantasy lineups. Yet, in Week 7, White is a top-20 running back rather easily.
With at least three catches in four straight games (he’s caught 16 of 17 targets on the season), the safety in White’s versatility is what we thought we had in Rhamondre Stevenson (another super underwhelming back that cracks my top 20 this week).
White has been held under 40 rushing yards in the majority of his games this season, and his next carry that gains more than 13 yards will be his first this season. I’m not excited about having to rank him where I did, but I will be playing White and his 17+ touch role this week wherever I have him.
Wide Receivers
Drake London: For the first time in his career, London has 75 receiving yards in consecutive games! The talent has never been a secret, and while this run has been nice if you played him, counting on it to continue is a bet on Ridder that I’m not willing to place.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
The scoring chances are going to be limited for all involved in this offense (49 points scored in Weeks 1-2, 50 points scored since), and that leaves a floor that I’m uncomfortable with inside of my top 30 at the position.
London joins Amari Cooper this week in the “good players in a bad situation” tier that typically involves Garrett Wilson and DeAndre Hopkins. London is an option if you’re stuck, but I do have players like Gabe Davis and Jordan Addison ranked higher.
Mike Evans: The 58.5% catch rate this season and consecutive games with under 50 receiving yards (first three weeks: 99 yards per game) are reasons to shift Evans outside of the top 10 wide receivers, but not out of lineups altogether.
There is still plenty of touchdown equity in his profile, especially in a matchup against Atlanta’s defense that is often challenged downfield (8.2 opponent aDOT, 10th highest).
Not that you need one more thing to think about, but Trey Palmer did have a 65.9% route participation last week. With a season aDOT flirting with 15 yards, this is another path to potential down weeks for Evans when the matchup is suboptimal.
Chris Godwin: This offense can pretty clearly support one receiver, and lately, it’s been Godwin on the right side of the coin.
- Past two games: 14 catches for 191 yards
- First three games: 13 catches for 141 yards
For this specific matchup, I prefer Evans by 8-10 spots, and that has Godwin in the low-end WR2 tier. This is a situation to monitor, as my ranking will change drastically based on how the opponent goes about their business.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith: During this Ridder heater, these two have combined for 35.4% of the targets, thus allowing both to hold some value at the same time. The average offense struggles to sustain one viable fantasy TE, so color me pessimistic on the Falcons being able to feature both Pitts and Smith on any sort of consistent basis moving forward.
Kyle Pitts snags his first TD of the season!pic.twitter.com/7uB3HZM1r4
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) October 15, 2023
Pitts scored for the first time in 350 days last week and has posted consecutive top-10 finishes. If we’re talking about a TE committee, I want the option with the per-target upside, and there’s no denying that Pitts is that option (58.1% edge in aDOT, not to mention a five-year advantage in youth and a massive edge in draft capital).
Pitts is my TE10 this week, while Smith checks in at TE15 and is still a streamable option for those holding their starting lineup together with duct tape.
Should You Start Kyle Pitts or Gerald Everett?
I have these two ranked back-to-back for the week, with the slight edge going to Pitts. Do I fear the floor for both? Of course, I do, but with a score or nine targets in three of his past four games, the role for Pitts is a touch more stable, and at the TE position, that’s enough!
Should You Start Drake London or Rashee Rice?
We’ve seen some positive developments in this Atlanta passing game of late, but not enough for me to take their WR1 over the player I think is solidifying himself as that in Kansas City. Rice’s low aDOT role in an explosive offense that gets the “Andy Reid on extended rest” bump this week – London is fine, but Rice has a chance to be special this week against the Chargers.