Calling all bettors! The Atlanta Falcons have their No. 1 QB, RB, WR, and TE of the future. But they need a lot of help in other areas to have even a remote shot at winning Super Bowl 58. How dramatically might they improve in 2023? And more pressingly, how will free agency and the upcoming NFL draft impact their title hopes? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl 58 Odds and Futures
Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader betting market.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs were the favorite (+650 odds) to win this year’s Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were No. 2. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.
But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were Nos. 3 and 4, respectively — though, in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Denver Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed. The Eagles weren’t even in the top third.
Naturally, Atlanta wasn’t close to the top. And they opened the season with the second-worst odds (+23000). Presently, they’re sixth-worst (+7500 odds) and are poised to improve even more if they engineer a successful offseason of acquisitions.
As we assess if bettors should lean into these latest odds, let’s examine a few key takeaways from the Falcons’ 2022 campaign.
Desmond Ridder, Drake London, and Other 2022 Season Takeaways
Respectfully, I never understood the Falcons’ sustained commitment to Marcus Mariota as their starting QB. After not starting a game for three seasons, the veteran was thrust into something akin to a “prove-it” or bridge role, whereby his job was safe if the Falcons kept winning.
In fairness, Desmond Ridder might not have been ready to take over until he finally did after the Week 14 bye. But by then, the season was essentially lost, even in the abominably weak AFC South.
A 2022 third-round draft pick, Ridder looked pretty good in his four starts. And we also might recognize that he faced off against QBs Andy Dalton, Tyler Huntley, David Blough, and a Week 18 combo of Tom Brady, Kyle Trask, and Blaine Gabbert. The true test for Ridder, of course, will come in 2023.
Still, there are reasons to be bullish about Atlanta in a winnable NFC South. If Ridder represents “improved” QB play, then we should see more from Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Both receivers have extraordinarily bright NFL futures. Pitts is only 22. London is still 21. They’re both on steep upward trajectories at this stage.
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In the backfield, rookie Tyler Allgeier played much more than I expected him to, rumbling for 1,000+ yards on a blistering 4.9 yards per carry. In a largely one-dimensional offense, that’s impressive. That he caught 16 of 17 targets is also impressive and reinforces the three-down capabilities exhibited in his final campaign at BYU.
Elsewhere, Cordarrelle Patterson looked great when healthy, but was surprisingly limited through the air (compared to 2021). And both RB Caleb Huntley and WR Olamide Zaccheaus give this team some offensive depth.
But as with many underwhelming franchises, the Falcons’ defense struggled to secure stops. They gave up the third-most rushing first downs for the second consecutive year and were tied for the 10th-most passing first downs surrendered. Their 69 QB hits ranked 30th, and their 21 sacks checked in at 31st.
Even a middling defense in 2022 might have been enough to catapult Atlanta atop their division. Instead, they’ll need to focus on free agency and the draft to engineer a more balanced, competitive squad.
2023 Offseason Moves
In last year’s draft, the Falcons mixed in offensive and defensive players, with some success. But it seems clear that their offense requires only tinkering at this stage. Perhaps some help on the offensive line, although the unit improved last year. Perhaps another instant-impact receiver to complement London and Pitts.
MORE: Atlanta Falcons Offseason Preview
The bigger needs are on defense. If they can make significant strides in this area, then they’ll be strong contenders to win the NFC South. And then, anything’s possible. So how might free agency and the upcoming draft impact their odds?
NFL Free Agency
In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on key Falcons arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to somehow bet on them to win it all.
NFL Draft
In early May, we’ll update this section on key Falcons draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any instant-impact players who could help catapult them into serious Super Bowl consideration.