If you’re planning to make Atlanta Falcons prop bets or any other wagers on season-long NFL player production, here are our suggested 2022 bets for perhaps their top playmaker, Kyle Pitts. All prop bets are based on FanDuel over/unders.
Top Atlanta Falcons prop bets for 2022
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on 10 years of NFL research analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these assessments.
Kyle Pitts’ 2021 recap
When PFN’s fantasy department did our dynasty rankings this offseason, Kyle Pitts was my No. 1 TE. There’s no clear path to anything less than top-five production for years to come. And we shouldn’t be shocked if he leads all fantasy TEs as soon as this season.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Keep in mind that he scored only 3% of the Falcons’ touchdowns last year. He was only ninth in the league in TE targets. This is where “last year’s stats” can lead to inaccurate statistical projections. We have to ask ourselves how much better Pitts could have been if things had broken a little differently. For example, if Calvin Ridley had remained with the team and the offense hadn’t been 26th in scoring.
Pitts’ 2022 predictions
These are serious concerns about a passing attack led by QB Marcus Mariota and/or rookie Desmond Ridder. However, Cordarrelle Patterson is a year older (31!) and unlikely to match last year’s long-awaited breakout. Tyler Allgeier has to fill a gaping hole left by the middling yet consistent Mike Davis. And Drake London is a higher-upside version of Russell Gage, though it could take a year for him to acclimate.
The offense should run through Pitts more than anyone else. He should lead this team in targets, receptions, and total yards. A sub-par defense should force this team to keep passing deep into games. His 68-1,026-1 receiving line last season represents far more of a floor than a ceiling. Seven times he had three or fewer catches. Six times he had 35 or fewer yards. That’s not normal for an ascending, elite-upside receiver.
Simply put, the best reason to bet against Pitts this year is to assume Mariota and/or Ridder can’t get him the ball. But they don’t need to be great or even middling. This offense doesn’t have many mouths to feed. Pitts and London should dominate targets, with Patterson or a No. 3 WR coming in a distant third. The top-heaviness of this passing attack favors Pitts in continuing his march to greatness.
Receiving yards: Over 950.5
Receptions: Over 68.5
Receiving TDs: Over 4.5