The Atlanta Falcons head into Week 18 facing a bit of an uphill battle to get into the NFL playoffs. Three losses in their last four games — including a head-scratching 9-7 defeat to the Carolina Panthers — have left the Falcons in a tougher spot than they would have preferred. Still, a path remains for the franchise to earn its first postseason berth since 2017.
Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances | Week 18 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Jan. 7 at 8:35 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
The Atlanta Falcons have been eliminated from the playoffs.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (9-8) defeated Panthers (2-15)
Saints (9-8) defeated Falcons (7-10)
Lions (12-5) defeated Vikings (7-10)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Falcons entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Falcons’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in Week 18?
Atlanta enters the week with a roughly 15% chance of making the playoffs, based on data from simulations of PFN’s Playoff Predictor. All of that percentage comes from the Falcons’ path to winning the NFC South, as they are no longer in the running for a Wild Card spot with tiebreakers not working in their favor.
To clinch the NFC South title and thus a spot in the playoffs, Atlanta needs exactly one fairly simple scenario to unfold — the Falcons need to beat the New Orleans Saints and have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose to the Carolina Panthers.
The likelihood of both of those outcomes transpiring is not great, given Carolina has no incentive to win, though Atlanta defeating the Saints is not such a longshot, given its 24-15 victory over the team earlier this season. Still, the relative likelihood of both results going in the Falcons’ favor is not great and hence contributes to their relatively low odds of making the postseason.
This is the NFL, however, where unexpected results routinely stun the league week after week.
If this scenario does play out in Atlanta’s favor, it would head into the playoffs as the NFC’s fourth seed and face a likely first-round matchup against the conference’s fifth seed.
That team will be the one with the best record not to win its division, and only two teams are potential options there at this point — the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
MORE: Atlanta Falcons Depth Chart
Dallas heads into Week 18 favored to win the NFC East, but Philadelphia also has a path to winning the division in the week. If the Cowboys falter and the Eagles win, the latter would jump up to the NFC East’s top spot, and Dallas would fall to fifth. Either way, the Falcons would certainly be in store for a challenging first-round matchup.
Time will tell whether they ultimately earn that opportunity and end their playoff drought.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
