Back-to-back divisional losses have not done the Atlanta Falcons’ playoff chances any favor and have made their scenarios for clinching a postseason spot much more complicated. The Falcons need to bounce back in Week 16, or they could face a close-to-impossible task in their search for the playoffs this season.
Falcons Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 24 at 8 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After all the games in Week 16, the Falcons are now the No. 9 seed in the NFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
Seahawks (8-7) defeated Titans (5-10)
Packers (7-8) defeated Panthers (2-13)
Lions (11-4) defeated Vikings (7-8)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Bears (6-9) defeated Cardinals (3-12)
Christmas Day Update
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Falcons entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Atlanta Falcons’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios Entering Week 16?
The past two weeks have seen the Falcons’ playoff chances slip to 13.3%, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). That is a huge drop for a team that controlled their destiny two weeks ago. ESPN’s FPI also gives Atlanta a mere 11.9% chance of winning the NFC South this season.
The Falcons enter Sunday as the third-ranked team in the NFC South with a 6-8 record. They are half a game behind the New Orleans Saints and a full game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South standings.
A win for Atlanta this week will ensure it moves into second place in the division thanks to a superior record in the second divisional playoff tiebreaker than the Saints (division record; 3-2 vs. 2-2). However, they cannot surpass the Buccaneers, even if Tampa loses, as they have a 4-1 divisional record to this point.
That is the primary problem for Atlanta after the past two weeks. The two losses have not only seen it slip from 6-6 to 6-8 but from 3-0 in the division to 3-2. The Falcons went from having the advantage in the division to being on the back foot. Additionally, they do not face the Buccaneers again this season, so would be relying on the Saints and Carolina Panthers to help them.
Atlanta needs Tampa Bay to drop at least two of its remaining three games to have any chance of winning the division. The Buccaneers also have a superior record in games against common opponents (6-3 vs. 5-4; out of 12), and in conference record (6-4 vs. 4-6; out of 12).
That all means that if Tampa Bay wins two of its remaining three games, Atlanta cannot beat them out for the division this season.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
The Falcons’ best path to winning the division is closing out the year 3-0 and the Buccaneers going 1-2. Doing so will also hold off New Orleans, who Atlanta faces in Week 18.
There is a path for the Falcons to win the division going 2-1, but they would need to beat the Saints in Week 18 and see the Buccaneers lose all of their remaining games. If Tampa Bay wins against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, only perfection will be enough for the Falcons down the stretch.
Where Do the Falcons Stand in the NFC Wild Card Picture?
In the NFC Wild Card picture, the Falcons are a game behind the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks and 1.5 games behind the Los Angeles Rams after their win on Thursday. The highest the Falcons can get this week is to the ninth spot, jumping the Saints.
If Atlanta wins this week, no one can stop them from ending the week as the ninth seed, but no combination of results above them will see them climb any higher. The Seahawks and Vikings both have superior conference records and would retain that advantage even if they both lose in Week 16.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Winning out would probably be good enough for the Falcons, but there is no certainty. If Los Angeles and Minnesota get to 9-8, the NFC Wild Card spots are out of reach — even if the Falcons finish 3-0. Both would have superior conference records, as the Falcons already have six in-conference losses.
Where things get interesting is if Atlanta wins out, one of the Rams or Vikings fails to get to nine wins, and Seattle also gets to nine wins but loses in Week 18. The Falcons and Seahawks would have equal in-conference records, but the Seahawks would have the edge based on their records against common opponents.
What all of this means is that for the Falcons to clinch an NFC Wild Card spot they need the following scenarios:
- Atlanta wins out, and two of the Rams, Seahawks, and Vikings fail to get to nine wins.
- Atlanta goes 2-1 (including a Week 18 win over the Saints), the Packers go 2-1, and both of the Seahawks and Vikings fail to get to eight wins.
There are more scenarios involving ties, but as we have not had a tie so far this season, those seem highly unlikely. Essentially, in any scenarios involving ties, two of the Rams, Seahawks, and Vikings must finish with a worse winning percentage than the Falcons.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!