Can Tua Tagovailoa save the Miami Dolphins season? Any path to the playoffs must start with a win Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.
Will it happen? Who knows in this weirdest of seasons. But there’s reason to believe it may.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins Game Preview
The Dolphins at 2-4 enter Week 8 as the AFC’s 10 seed. The 3-4 Cardinals are the 11 seed in the NFC.
With Tagovailoa expected back in the lineup, the Dolphins were as of Friday four-point favorites against a Cardinals team that has won two of its last three games. The sharps seem to be on the Dolphins. Just 37% of the money as of Friday was on Arizona and the points.
Will the Dolphins get right? Or will Mike McDaniel’s lost season continue? PFN’s predictions, plus seven more key stats courtesy of TruMedia, are below.
7 Cardinals-Dolphins Stats From TruMedia
Stat: Tagovailoa returns this week, and that provides hope. However, let’s not forget that he has had multiple touchdown passes in just one of his past eight games (playoffs included).
Analysis: Even with their QB1 back, the Dolphins would be wise to stick with a running attack that has averaged 190.5 rushing yards per game the last two weeks.
Stat: No team in the NFL forces three-and-outs at a lower rate than the Cardinals this season.
Analysis: This is a classic unstoppable force vs. immovable object showdown. The Dolphins rank 26th in first downs per game (17.7) and 27th in third-down rate (32.1%).
Stat: James Conner was either handed the ball or targeted on 12 of Arizona’s first 25 plays from scrimmage on Monday night against the Chargers.
Analysis: Are the Cardinals using Conner, who has missed 24 games due to injury in his eight-year career, too much? He has reached 100 scrimmage yards in three of his past four games and has at least 19 touches in five of seven.
Stat: Just 2% of passes against the Dolphins have resulted in a touchdown, the lowest rate in the league.
Analysis: The Dolphins’ depth in the secondary will be tested this weekend with Kader Kohou and Storm Duck injured. Is it finally Cam Smith time?
Stat: The Dolphins are 0-3 ATS at home this season — they haven’t had a losing ATS season in front of their home fans since the 2015 team led by Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Miller.
Analysis: This is the Dolphins’ only home game in the span of 47 days. Better make it count.
Stat: By EPA, the Dolphins have the fourth-worst special teams in the NFL through seven weeks
Analysis: Danny Crossman’s group has already replaced its long-snapper, and now will have to find a new returner with Braxton Berrios out for the season. Malik Washington seems like the next in line.
Stat: Sunday will mark the final game of a four-game run that saw Arizona play in a different city in four straight weeks (they return home in Weeks 9-10 before going on bye in Week 11).
Analysis: If you believe it’s a disadvantage for a West Coast(ish) team having to play a 10 a.m. ET kick on a short week, the Cardinals could be in real trouble Sunday.
Cardinals vs. Dolphins Predictions
David Bearman (62-44 on the season): Dolphins
Adam Beasley (64-42): Dolphins
Anthony DiBona (61-45): Dolphins
Mike Gambardella (70-36): Dolphins
Dakota Randall (63-43): Cardinals
Dallas Robinson (64-42): Dolphins
Kyle Soppe (69-37): Cardinals
Dan Tomaro (63-43): Dolphins
Full Week 8 picks from PFN are available here.