The Arizona Cardinals‘ fantasy outlook identifies a DFS sleeper, while the Chicago Bears‘ preview discusses the fantasy football value of their backfield.
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
- Spread: Bears -4
- Total: 44.5
- Cardinals implied points: 20.3
- Bears implied points: 24.3
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray: We’ve seen splash plays from Murray since returning from injury, and it’s enough to sell me on using him in this spot against a Bears defense that is stronger against the run than the pass.
Has Murray been sporadic? Sure, but with 45+ opportunities in two of his past three games, the upside is borderline elite.
He has yet to throw for multiple scores in a game this season, but with over 68% of TDs scored against Chicago coming through the air (fifth highest), that flaw could get ironed out and pave the way for a ceiling performance.
Murray is a top-10 play for me and a starter in all formats. That said, his floor is a little concerning, which is why he is my second favorite QB in this game …
Justin Fields: The profile of Fields is nearly identical to that of Murray, but I’d rather oppose the Cardinals’ defense that struggles to get home (4.4% QB contact rate, easily the lowest rate in the league).
Fields has just three TD passes in four games since returning from the thumb injury (133 pass attempts), but the opportunity count (47 per game over his past three) is too high to ignore given his unique skill set. His finishes since returning:
- Week 11 at Lions: QB8
- Week 12 at Vikings: QB24
- Week 14 vs. Lions: QB3
- Week 15 at Browns: QB26
He has largely handled good matchups well this season. Prior to the injury, he was the best QB in fantasy during a Week 5 meeting with the Commanders, which came on the heels of being QB3 against the Broncos.
I think that’s what we’re looking at here, and it gives me confidence in ranking Fields safely inside of my top 10.
Running Backs
James Conner: The veteran has posted consecutive RB1 finishes thanks to some splash plays (29 and 44-yard runs) that I wasn’t sure we’d see from Conner this time of year with him now north of 1,300 career touches.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The front four is certainly the strength of this Chicago defense. That has me dinging Conner’s rank a touch, but not enough to knock his volume (42 touches over the past two weeks) outside of my RB2 tier.
Players like De’Von Achane and Austin Ekeler offer more juice per touch than Conner, but how sold are you on their touch count? I have Conner a tick ahead of both and am playing him where I have him, even in a less-than-ideal matchup.
Roschon Johnson: The rookie is slowly trending in the right direction, but I fear that we are going to run out of time for it to really matter. Johnson led the team in rushing yards against the Browns with 36, but he was one of four Bears with at least five rushing attempts, giving us a “if you have many, you have none” situation.
The six targets he saw is the thread Johnson truthers are holding onto and the only reason I have him ranked as a top-40 play this weekend. The Bears have produced just two top-25 RB performances over their past seven games, and there simply isn’t enough clarity when it comes to role to assume those struggles end this week.
Johnson is pretty clearly my favorite Chicago back this week. Or, maybe more accurately, he’s the option in that backfield that I dislike the least.
Khalil Herbert: Six carries for eight yards last week in Cleveland was … well, it was better than D’Onta Foreman.
“Damning with faint praise” comes to mind after reading that line. This summer, I thought Herbert was a strong option due to his path to work in a potentially versatile offense, and for a little while there, that take seemed reasonable.
That’s no longer the case. There isn’t much reason to hold onto him at this point. Is there anything he could do this week that would earn him starting lineup consideration next week?
The answer is a pretty clear no for me.
D’Onta Foreman: Chicago’s Week 15 starting running back produced a stat line that was about as confusing as Chandler Bing’s job title.
- Six carries. Negative six yards. Zero targets.
Yep, playing your humble author as your Flex option would have been a far superior option. He did get five of six goal-line snaps, but that’s a useless role if Foreman can’t get past the line of scrimmage.
I’m not going act like I have a great feel as to how the touches are going to be distributed in this backfield to end this season, but much like in Herbert’s case, I can tell you that there is essentially nothing Foreman can do this week that would impact my decision-making for next.
Under that premise, using his roster spot to stash a defense or handcuff an RB in an offense with more potential is a good idea.
Wide Receivers
Marquise Brown: Hollywood has been battling a heel injury that cost him the second half of last week’s game and is likely to sideline him this week. Head coach Jonathan Gannon made more of a point to shoot down the idea that Brown would land on IR than update his status for this week.
After Trey McBride (10 catches for 102 yards), the target distribution in this passing attack was about as spread out as any in the league last week against the 49ers.
There were not one, not two, but eight players who saw 3-4 targets, putting us in a spot where we can trust exactly none of them to fill the “WR1” role that Brown was holding in title only.
Per the Week 16 Cheat Sheet, Brown has one top-50 finish since Week 8. Yet, there is one receiver on this roster that piques my interest if you’re looking for a holiday miracle sort of vibe on your roster …
Michael Wilson: The 6’2” rookie returned from a neck injury last week after missing the previous three games, and while the Hall of Fame likely isn’t looking for film off the three targets he earned that didn’t result in a single catch against the 49ers, there’s some Hail Mary hope.
Wilson ran a route on 88.9% of Murray’s dropbacks. With his aDOT up 22.7% from last season, there’s an avenue for Wilson to make a splash play against a Bears defense that sees a league-high 75% of opponents’ yardage gained through the air.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
He doesn’t deserve to be ranked as a top-50 receiver in season-long settings. And I can’t imagine rolling the dice like this in a semifinal situation that you worked all year to get yourself qualified for.
But if you’re out of the mix in your season-long league and looking for a DFS punt play (check out Thursday’s DFS podcast for more!) — you’re getting a high upside weapon with very little ownership who is in a good spot.
I’m just sayin’.
DJ Moore: Fantasy managers were left wanting more from Moore last week in Cleveland (four receptions, 52 yards).
But from a process standpoint, there’s nothing actionable to take away from that underwhelming stat line.
Last week was the fifth straight game in which Chicago’s ace receiver saw at least eight targets (ninth time in 11 games), and he was, on average, WR14 for the four games prior to the slow Week 15.
I have Moore as a low-end WR1 in this matchup against the third-worst per-attempt pass defense in the NFL.
This offense is geared for him to get his fair share of looks, and this matchup is as favorable as you could ask for.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride: If you extend McBride’s past five games for an entire season, he would finish with 129 catches and 1,445 yards. The second-year breakout star has surpassed all expectations this season and has as promising of a long-term outlook as anyone at the position.
McBride is a top-five option for me at the position this week, and I may not be high enough. You’re riding the value you got in acquiring him, and it may net you a championship!
Cole Kmet: While I have my concerns about the quality of Kmet’s opportunities, there’s no denying that his volume is impressive, and it lands him as a top-15 tight end for me in this spot.
Kmet only managed 23 yards in Cleveland last week, but he finished with 10.8 half-PPR fantasy points, enough to satisfy fantasy managers. He’s seen at least six targets in three straight games and in six of his past seven — you could do worse.
Should You Start Saquon Barkley or James Conner?
Both are RB2s for me this week, and I actually prefer Conner. Kyler Murray gives the Cardinals a path to offensive upside and scoring opportunities that simply aren’t present in New York these days.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
It’s been over a month since the last time Barkley had a 10-yard run and catch in the same game — the home-run-hitting potential just hasn’t been there in the same way it has in years past. He gets stuck in a tough matchup against the Eagles where production on the ground will be difficult to come by, and the overall play count doesn’t project favorably.
Both backs have a floor that is worrisome, so I’d rather play the option with the edge in overall offensive potential.
Should You Start DeVonta Smith or DJ Moore?
In a perfect world, you’re not benching either. Smith’s role is moving in the right direction at the perfect time, but Moore has something in his profile that Smith doesn’t.
Need.
The Bears need Moore to produce if they are going to move the ball, whereas the Eagles can put points on the board without Smith having a big day (remember when they scored 28 points against the Cowboys, and Smith saw just three targets?).
Moore has seen at least eight targets in five straight games, and I see no reason for that to change. If you have both of these receivers, I prefer Moore, but I’d be looking to Flex Smith and bench a player with lesser upside.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
